"Syria is reminiscent of Spain before the Second World War. Too, it was a warm-up, or something. As a result, failed to consensually resolve the conflict overdue - and the process went on, "- said the newspaper VIEW futurist, professor of Moscow State University, member of the Academy of Military Sciences Sergei Malkov. Professor known for being a year before the start of the conflict Russia and the West over Ukraine predicted a new world war.
In April 2013 years futurist, professor of Moscow State University Sergei Malkov made a sensational forecast, saying that "in the next ten years" could start another world war. The world is waiting for "a strong political and technological instability," it quoted Malkov Vzglyad, we are approaching a dangerous phase of world development, for which, as experience shows, is characterized by large-scale war for global leadership for the economic and political division of the world.
In their calculations, Malkov relied on the theory of the economist Nikolaya Kondrateva, according to which there are K-waves - periodic cycles of the world economy lasting 40-60 years. However, futurist caveat: while it is impossible to predict the nature of this war - it will not necessarily be "hot." For example, the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the United States, he said has held the Third World.
Exactly one year later - in April 2014-th - the beginning of the war in the Ukraine, which many experts considered part of a new world war. It is noteworthy that after two months - in June 2014 years - Sergei Malkov expressed another forecast, however, very specific, which, however, also came true. In an interview with "MK", he suggested that the military campaign in the isolation Ukraine will come in August, and really, if there was a "Ilovajskij pot", followed by a large-scale battles in the Donbass, with some exceptions, have ended.
To learn whether our world has become at least a little safer with the election in the US presidential Donald Trump in an interview with LOOK says a leading researcher at the Institute of Economics, Professor of the Faculty of the Moscow State University global processes, expert at the Center for Strategic Problems of the Academy of Military Sciences of the nuclear forces, Sergei Malkov.
VIEW: Sergey, three years ago you admitted "Arguments and Facts", that "Americans are afraid." They are objectively very beneficial chaos in the rest of the world outside their own country. The appearance in the White House Trump did not reduce your fears?
Sergei Malkov:All remain in force. Trump - an impulsive politician, his precarious position, he will be a constant temptation to struggle under the influence of the logic of internal conflicts to carry out of the country, to solve them by external aggression. The Americans do it all the time. Actually, the impact on the Syrian airfield Shayrat - it is also an attempt to solve internal problems. Thank God, there was not our soldiers. If it were struck by our advisors, our soldiers, then we do not know how it would all come to an end. There are a lot of risks. It can start to act like a bull in a china shop.
VIEW: Your sensational prediction was made a year before the war in Ukraine. It confirms your theory or a phenomenon of a different order?
CM.:Now it was time for the transition between the two "cycles of Kondratiev," when there is a deceleration of economic growth around the world, which, of course, causes stress not only economic, but also political, and attempts to solve the problem is not economic, but political, including by military means . And the events around Syria, North Korea and the Ukraine - it is all on this subject.
VIEW: Many say that the world war has already begun, though in a new guise. These conflicts of you - is a harbinger of war or have it start?
CM.:It is difficult to separate the harbinger of the war itself. Another thing is that you can still start the fire put out. How many believe Syria is very similar to Spain before the Second World War. Too, it was a warm-up, or something. As a result, it failed to consensually resolve the conflict overdue - and the process went on, without the ability to stop it.
And now, if we - the world's major players - will be able to negotiate around Syria and North Korea, it may still be able to all razrulit. The conflict is already underway. It is important to not come to a hot war, but we still have to go through a period of confrontation - through economic war, financial and ideological information. Now a lot is determined not on the battlefield, God forbid, but in people's minds. There is a struggle for the minds. The third-the World War ended without a shot, but the result was obvious - the Soviet Union was destroyed.
LOOK: You have suggested that the campaign of isolation in Ukraine will happen in August 14-year. But the war has not yet been completed.
CM.:I do not pretend to be the predictor, simply analyzing the logic of events. Yes, from the burning phase then everything turned into smoldering. All is not depends on Ukraine, but on the other players. Unfortunately, Ukraine was not a subject but an object. It is a pity, of course, that it happened. We are actually one nation. Hopefully, all the same all eventually resolved. In foreign policy, our management does everything right now optimally. God forbid, and so on will.
VIEW: From the moment you "prophecy" has been three years. Would not you like something in it to clarify, correct?
CM.:Clarify that? All remain in force. It is the fifth Kondratieff cycle - the cycle of decline the US global leadership. They acted too aggressively in the international arena of the leaders have become dominant, they have very few people like. They are still more, they are subject to, but do not support. Unanimity falls. They really yet to come. But, as usual, if the leader can not run faster than the others, then he will slow down the rest.
Now the period is very similar to the beginning of the twentieth century. Then the leader of the British Empire was, and when she began to weaken, then start to slow down the others and push them into wars. The Anglo-Saxon policy has not changed. Simply leader moved across the ocean. Therefore, we must be very cautious, careful not to succumb to provocations.
It will, unfortunately, continue all next Kondratieff cycle has approximately 30 years of very hard life, risky. And then the new configuration is determined. I hope that there will be multi-polar "world-system." Ultimately, globalization will pass through all. It's unavoidable. The world is already integrated and cost information into a single system. A politically yet. The rivalry continues politics. But in the end it has to end after a period of upheavals in some global consensus enters phase of cooperation.
All the big BRICS countries have already passed this stage. Russia has passed, China has passed. That's why they keep large areas. Russia - the seventh part of the land. She was able to implement social technology cooperation! Indeed, the landscape is very diverse ethnically and geographically, however, centrifugal forces are stronger than centripetal. In Russia there was no ethnic or religious wars in its history. This is quite a unique case.
VIEW: But there was a civil war.
CM.:This is a social conflict. Before that - the rebellions of Bolotnikov, Razin, Pugachev. On the basis of social inequality, the property inequality is yes. But I'm talking about something else. About ethnic and confessional conflict, which is now trying to ignite our, as they say, partners. What is religious extremism or nationalism? This is the accentuation of the system "one's own" - a stranger "according to a national, religious sign. Russia managed to avoid this at the expense of its completely unique policy, which did not separate the peoples who lived in this territory, but created new opportunities for them. And the world will ultimately follow the path of Russia. It's a pity I will not live to see this beautiful time.
In Russia, when there is not enough resource, you do not take away from another, but on the contrary - you share with another. That's awesome! This experience is not enough for anyone. I do not mean simply inside a family or some local group, but to other peoples who formally have a different blood, religion. In Russia, there is no struggle for a limited resource, but, on the contrary, the provision of this resource to others who are even worse. This is a rare historical phenomenon. And it is very fruitful. If it did not work, then Russia would have disintegrated long ago. Look at the map of Western Europe - these are solid borders. What would they not live together? They can not, because there is constant competition in my head. The history of Western Europe is the history of internal conflicts.
People in Russia different mentality, they want to live together - in spite of all the difficulties that exist, in spite of the imperfection of the government, corruption. All sorts of ills in the society, but people want to not conflict, and to live together, to overcome difficulties. This feature will eventually become the property of the world, but this must be a long time and a lot to learn as Russian studied.
VIEW: According to your theory, after the current start of the fifth-sixth technological order, which will be the leaders of the nano-, bio-, information and cognitive technologies. The same forecast 2013 year you warned about the danger of falling behind once on 50 years, if we do not volemsya to the desired cycle. Over the past four years, the danger has not increased?
CM.:Of course. It is the introduction of digital technologies. Q: What rules of the game, on which platforms? For example, Microsoft or Google. We all use them, that is, in fact, we are all dependent on one or two corporations, not Russian. If we do not create their own digital platforms, which will be the basis of our economy, our communications, information and financial security, the touch of a button it will be possible to paralyze the entire economy.
This danger is finally realized, and has already taken action. Thankfully, there were cards "Peace". So far, no serious progress, but there was an understanding. It unfolds a serious program to these risks, at least, reduced. We do not miss this way and get at least on par with the current leaders. Do not be dependent on foreign technology. If we do not, the sovereignty is lost.