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17.04.2017 - 14: 09

World politics and attraction with a roller coaster ride

Comparison of the United States president's actions on the international scene with a rollercoaster ride (in America they are called Russian slides) established itself as something immediately. It promises to bring a new level of relations with Russia, the sharp peak down the Russian announcement "a problem" and even a "threat" to the United States. Then again rise, but not to the previous height after reaching a number of agreements during a visit to Moscow by Secretary of State R. Tillerson. And what lies ahead? New fall? Tight cornering with lifting unexpectedly difficult? Questions.

And the general cause such differences - market conditions, lack of a new US administration's foreign policy strategy, or "brand" Trump style? Or maybe really lost the election "system" quickly took its revenge and forcing the winner to submit to his will? It seems that, as always, a little mixed up everything.

US President environment believes that tightening rhetoric toward Russia and hitting Moscow's interests in Syria, could blunt the edge of criticism against the new team about the "suspicious relationships" with Russia. Also, do not set strategic lines of the new administration in the international arena. First of all, Trump is still eyeing the international affairs, and, secondly, because of business experience and personal qualities he feels much more confident in myself not as a strategist and as a tactician. This, however, does not mean that he abandoned plans to make America "the great again." And it will be wrong to one who deems that the former Trump no more, for he, like the fallen from the wall, Humpty Dumpty, have collapsed.

Russians expect from the new US president significant changes for the better in bilateral relations, of course, unpleasant surprise of sudden changes in the statements and actions of the new administration. the impression has emerged that the final break and the new "cold", and can be, and "hot" war is not far off. However, if we recall that Trump spoke about China more recently and what he says about this country right now, it is possible to look at the situation differently.

And on the eve of elections and immediately after winning Trump Beijing was designated as the main enemy of America, it is most certainly been promised a trade war. The intensity of the charges even surpassed that level, which was published in the last days of Trump rhetoric toward Russia. Moreover, denoting readiness to normalize relations with Russia, Washington traced the "future" of this "normalization" in the anti-China base. Anyway, some Chinese experts began to express on this occasion a certain anxiety. Then all of a sudden turn, all the accusations in Beijing address are forgotten, and Xi Jinping is more "personal friend" Trump (who would have thought ?!). Now it is played with a combination of the sort of hints that the US-Chinese rapprochement can take place on the basis of anti-Russian. It is noted, for example, that China did not support Russia's veto in the UN Security Council on a US draft resolution on the use of chemical weapons in Syria, abstained. I come, they say, turn to worry Moscow. In general, Washington is very pleased with the results of negotiations with the Chinese leader, believing that they had received from him more concessions than did themselves. This, of course, a moot point, but the contacts with Moscow and Beijing Trump used the same technique, "riding on the roller coaster", starting in the first case from the top of, and in the second - from the bottom. In addition to this, there have been attempts to impose American side mistrust between China and Russia.

It is quite possible, however, that Trump did not torn, and prefers the spirit of "business approach" to keep on the table all the cards one by one by choosing those that seem to him at one time or another most successful. And for as long as possible to leave a competitor or opponent in the dark about his real plans. Trump himself constantly brags that his ability. This, so to speak, the personal style of the current occupant of the White House. Can this be considered a lack of strategy? It is not yet clear. As far as this style will bring success to President Trump? The future will show.

The special features of the style of Donald Trump can be attributed also expressed personification of relations with major world powers. The American president, in particular, even sharply criticized in certain aspects of Russian policy or China, always avoiding statements about their leaders. Just as in the very tough competition between corporations is not accepted to move to the personality of their owners. Suddenly still have to negotiate. There should be nothing personal, just business. While Trump keeps this rule and continues to, for example, approvingly about the identity of the Russian president. "It's just a fantastic thing if we get along with Putin, and if we get along with Russia", - he 12 April, he said at a press conference with NATO gensekretarom Stoltenberg.

Many are puzzled "starry-eyed" recording Trump "Twitter": say, stop worrying, "America's relationship with Russia will eventually be fine." Well, it is a replica responds, "style". Behind it is guessed "the smile of the Sphinx" saying that confrontation with Russia do not want to, but try to "tame" it, ride the "roller coaster", I'll try. What can I say? If this is true, then the knowledge of Russia and its people, this approach, unfortunately, does not shine. Russian to the "roller coaster" is no stranger, but only the restoration of the destroyed confidence in the dialogue with Moscow is not going to help.

Interestingly, the speculation came on the eve of his visit to Moscow Tillerson about the fact that Washington is allegedly ready to offer the Russian side of the deal "Syria in exchange for Ukraine." Based on these assumptions was the replica of the American Secretary of State, the meaning of which consisted in the fact that Ukraine is outside the US interests. Thesis just intuitive, but in Kiev, agitated by the words Tillerson to such an extent that President Poroshenko even called specifically on this occasion the head of the State Department. Last Ukrainian President promised that everything will be okay, and Kiev, of course, presented it as his next "Peremoga".

World politics, however, is not a commodity exchange. From its position on Syria Moscow has not moved and made explicit American promise not to apply in that country to unilaterally force against government forces, which is crucial (if the promises are worth something). But the Ukrainian president's reasons for optimism. His course on what to redraw the Minsk agreement, no one approval is not received. In contrast to the previous US administration, whose members encouraged revisionism Kiev, Tillerson in Moscow clearly stated commitment to existing agreements in Washington, though, and called for their implementation in the first place, the Russian side. The call unnecessary: ​​from its obligations Moscow has never abandoned, but it is important to document worked in principle, but should be carried out of its specific points in the document spelled out quite clearly in what sequence.

The most ambiguous position in the White House remains, perhaps, the question of the notorious Russian intervention in American elections. It is difficult to understand what logic is guided by Trump, if it is willing to accept in the absence of any "interference" of evidence.

Let us take the liberty to suggest that Trump feud with Moscow really is not going to (be it contradicted his "business approach" to politics); he simply has not left a naive, to say the least hope to get Moscow and Beijing to play on his own, Trump rules.

US president has yet to accept the fact that the mechanisms of world politics a lot more difficult to ride a roller coaster ride. Ride the rails are too narrow, running on them cars are admitted at excess speed may be broken.

And besides, addicted to such attractions, as well as a desire to "ride" is not shared by all.

A source: Strategic Culture Foundation

Author: Dmitry MININ

Tags: Trump, the US, Russia, China, International Relations, Analysis, Politics, Syria