Theme of Ukraine appeared in my books and articles only after the Maidan and the coup d'etat in February 2014 years, when the country's political regime change and the vector of development. Recently, I was pleased to learn that my modest publication in Ukraine does not go to waste: in Kiev opublikovanspisok books by Russian authors published in Russia and banned for import to Ukraine. In the 74 names, among them there and my book "Ukraine. Economy Troubles or money for blood "(M .:" Book world », 2014). Interpreted this as a recognition, I decided after a pause to go back to Ukraine.
3 April, the International Monetary Fund's Board of Directors decided to allocate to Ukraine the next tranche in the amount of Kiev for a long time waiting for this tranche of $ 1 billion., The previous (third) has been allocated more than six months ago, and since then the IMF held the Ukrainian authorities in nervous tension.
The main reason for the delay was the failure to Kiev, the terms set forth by the Foundation in September 2016 years. Another reason was the uncertainty caused by the presidential election in America. The fact that the United States - the main shareholder of the IMF, it still holds a blocking share in equity and votes of the Fund. In short, the go-ahead from the team of Trump on a positive decision on Ukraine tranche was given to the Fund until March.
I have often written about the fact that the IMF make decisions on lending in Ukraine, in flagrant violation of its own rules, which the Fund was guided for decades. Done it is always due to the political objectives pursued by the major shareholder of the Fund in Ukraine. IMF rules prohibit lending to those countries in which conducted the civil war. It will soon be three years since Kiev conducting military operations in the Donbass region, this Fund "did not notice" when 2015 was decided to approve the four-year program of assistance Ukraine totaling $ 17,5 billion. Let us note that in the first two years of the program, the Fund had put Ukraine more than a dozen large and dozens of small conditions for further "cooperation", but neither time did not hint that the Kiev ended the war in the east, which depletes the economy of Ukraine and brings the country to default. Perhaps the IMF tacitly been recognized DNR and LNR as sovereign jurisdiction? Then indeed no civil war in the territory of Ukraine.
Another violation of the Fund was that Ukraine de jure is a country that has declared a sovereign default since the end of the year 2015. But such funds in the country to work has the right (there is a rule almost from the inception of the IMF). Let me remind you that in December 2013, the Russian Federation has given Ukraine a loan of $ 3 billion. for two years. It was in the penultimate month of stay in power Viktora Yanukovicha. Two years later the "revolutionary" government Arseniy Yatsenyuk has categorically refused to fulfill its obligations on the loan. In short, in December in the Ukraine in fact there was a classic sovereign default - the most terrible crime in terms of the canons of classical capitalism. It "did not notice" is also in the Fund.
To the IMF to provide financial assistance to Ukraine, the program can work on, the main shareholder of the Fund intervened in the inner workings of the international financial institution. Washington demanded to amend the IMF's work rules that would allow the country to continue lending, which declared a sovereign default. Amendments have been made in favor of Washington right before the expiration of the Russian loan Ukraine. However, for the sake of decency in the amendments it was envisaged that the country, which declared a sovereign default, must demonstrate "good faith attempt to resolve the sovereign debt issues" with the State creditor. It meant that Kiev had to organize a show called "The talks in Kiev and Moscow on trohmilliardnogo debt on the loan." However, Kiev had already let himself go, and even create the appearance of the play has not. IMF and it "did not notice" when, in 2016, the decision on the allocation of the third tranche of Ukraine in 1 billion dollars.
In the period between the third and fourth tranches of the Ukraine was provedenanatsionalizatsiya one of the largest banks - "Privatbank", owned by Ukrainian oligarch Igoryu Kolomoyskomu. To the surprise of the bank experts Ukrainian government decision to nationalize (in December 2016 years) was the result of the IMF's advice. here is surprising that with 1980-ies Fund promoted worldwide its ideology called "Washington Consensus". One of the members of this symbol of faith in economic liberalism, religion is a provision stating that the private ownership "by definition" better than the state. The Foundation has always given the green light to privatization and nationalization of the red light. And then all the way around! In addition, in case of nationalization, "Privat" it became clear that the balance of the deposit and credit organization gaping "hole" the size of $ 5,5 billion. Capitalization and covering bank losses will have to impose on taxpayers - and here the IMF in any principle is not going to compromise, it will be hard to claim to find these same five and a half billion in Ukraine.
During the preparation of solutions for the fourth tranche of the IMF one more event was overlap Ukrainian "patriots" of communications between Ukraine, on the one hand, and the DNI / LC, on the other hand. It was a blow to the economy not only of Donbass, but Ukraine itself. According to expert estimates, the gap of production and economic relations only with large enterprises of Donbass (total - 43) will turn to Ukraine loss of 2,5% of GDP. This is besides the fact that the Ukrainian budget will lose almost 31,7 billion hryvnia, or 1,3 billion dollars that came to the budget in the form of taxes to the companies registered in Ukraine, but were in the DNR and LNR.
I followed the course of the negotiations Mezhuyev IMF and Kiev. And what surprises again: The Foundation does not insist on getting the Donbass blockade was immediately stopped, once again pretending to be deaf and blind.
At the end of March this year the High Court in London ruled on the suit of Russia to Ukraine on repayment of the loan in the amount of $ 3 billion mentioned above. British court recognized these commitments sovereign, and not the commercial debt, so it does not provide for the repayment of any concessions. In fact, London has once again confirmed that Ukraine is in a state of a sovereign default. The IMF, however, a few days after the decision of the court of London as if nothing had happened ruled that the fourth tranche. But that's not all. The latest list of conditions for further "cooperation" with the IMF Ukraine repay sovereign debt to Russia in general does not appear! It does not provide for the repayment of Russian debt and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine in the charts.
Yes, and how to provide it, even if not very clear how much money will give up to the end, the IMF, the World Bank, the European Union. But how much will have to allocate for repayment and servicing of debts to "privileged" creditors, more understandable. According to the deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine Oleg Chury on debt service in 2017-2019 years Ukraine will require almost 13 billion dollars. Debt service to the IMF in the current year will require approximately $ 1 billion. By the way, according to semi-official statements of the Kiev officials have just dedicated tranche of almost returns back to the Fund. Here there is a simple accounting operation, which allowed Ukraine to avoid another sovereign default. Really this installment did not improve the situation in Ukraine.
More big challenge for the country will be the next, fifth tranche. . He is scheduled for May of $ 1,9 billion in IMF reminded Kiev that at the time of issuance of the fourth tranche satisfied only three of the eleven main conditions: the nationalization of "Privatbank", the introduction of electronic declaration of incomes of civil servants and increase in gas tariffs for the population.
What else is listed for Kiev? I will not talk about permanent commitments of Ukraine to the IMF for privatization of state property, to reduce the number of civil servants, and so on. n During the period of less than two months of Kiev is necessary to accept the new pension legislation, as well as a large part of the package of measures to combat financial crime and tax evasion. Tax police should be replaced by a new civilian service under the control of the Ministry of Finance to investigate financial crimes against the state. It is necessary to expand the powers of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), which will be able to keep track of citizens without special permits law enforcement authorities (through a network of agents, through the control of e-mail and so on. d.).
And, perhaps most importantly in the list of conditions - to enact legislation legalizuyuschiyprodazhu land. This nail IMF program. After all, only a mass sale of Ukrainian land is the source of funds with which it will be possible to cover the enormous commitment of Ukraine to the International Monetary Fund and other "privileged" creditors. This is the last and most valuable asset, "Square", nothing left. Ukraine now operates moratorium on land sales until the end of the year, and the IMF is insisting that more of it is not renewed.
Around this is already unfolding domestic political battles. Radical Party Oleg Lyashko even filed for the government to court to publish the text of the agreement between Ukraine and the IMF, adjusted prior to issuance of the fourth tranche. After reviewing the agreement, Lyashko called it onerous conditions and wrote in social networks: "This is a noose on the neck of the Ukrainians. The power of gaining these loans, because they know that they do not return. It is not necessary to gain credit, and radically change the economic and monetary policy. Orientation - exclusively on the national producer, jobs for Ukrainians. government policy - a half-starved existence on the periphery of world development and progress. " This position is shared by the "Fatherland" Yulia Tymoshenko and the "opposition bloc". Tymoshenko told reporters that "the highest state leadership asked the IMF to balance the looted public resources" at the expense of the population, and not due to the closure of offshore accounts and dividend taxation of the rich, adding that the "government has betrayed the interests of the people and works for their own pockets."
I recall that in mid-April, the government Vladimira Groysmana will report on the results of the year. Many MPs are determined to ensure that the government recognize the work unsatisfactory and seek the resignation Groisman and the team. Such sentiments for Ukrainian politicians are not new, the new note is only a criticism of the current government for unquestioning adherence to IMF guidelines. Given this increasing criticism prospects of the fifth tranche of the Ukraine are rather vague. And without the fifth tranche of the country is again at the precipice of a sovereign default. IMF fit to again rewrite the rules to continue lending even those countries that have defaulted on debts to the Fund itself. Well, this is quite possible - because Washington still sees the IMF instrument of its policy on Ukraine.