Ten years ago, Vladimir Putin, speaking at a security conference in Germany. This question was already regarded as sensational, but now it is clear exactly what she made history by designating a twist, not only in Russia, but also in world politics. It was an unconditional sentence of the unipolar world, and today can be clearly seen how it has come true.
Vladimir Putin is well aware of Germany - he worked there in the Soviet years, often came to 90-e. As president, he paid to relations with that country paramount. He established good contacts with Chancellor Schroeder, with many German politicians and businessmen, he spoke in the Bundestag in German. And it so happened that his most famous speech, Putin said in Germany - exactly ten years ago, in February 10 2007 year, at the Conference on Security Policy in Munich.
This annual conference is considered the most representative forum for foreign policy in Europe - and Putin chose her to announce his diagnosis world order. In the hall, among others have been Chancellor Merkel, US Senator McCain, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko.
Putin's speech in February 10 2007 years has made a huge impact in the West. "Putin is resuming the Cold War" - although in reality the Russian president just explained in detail why Russia is dissatisfied with the existing world order, he explained why the unipolar world has not taken place and may not take place. It was a challenge - but only in the sense Atlanticist, who did not expect that Russia will change the tone of the conversation with them. In fact, it was a time when Russia is no longer simply to smooth the corners, no longer afraid to offend a sharp word and began to talk about her concerns and worries, openly, publicly, and not on the sidelines. Although Putin is already at the beginning of a speech specifically stated that "asking him not to be angry," worry is not reduced.
As such, Putin said at the time? To begin with let us recall the context in which he said it - the beginning of the year 2007. It is not by chance that this time Putin, they say, is ripe.
First, just as he had decided to "issue 2008 years" - that is the situation with the third period, finally abandoning the proposal to exclude from the Constitution a ban on a third term. This was a very serious problem - Putin's opponents in the West, closely followed by his actions - in fact, Putin blackmailed by the fact that in the case of changing the constitution to obstruct him, called a dictator and usurper of power. It is understood that the West, they say, "ate" to the re-election of Putin. Still, in its decision not to change the law for themselves, in addition to defining the domestic, it was also foreign policy reasons.
In the early 2007, Putin was able to talk with the West, do not think about "the problem of the third period," that is, realizing that the West does not even propaganda trump card to put pressure on him. This has contributed to openness - Putin was ready to announce and explain Russia's strategic goals.
By this time he was seven years was president. His experience with top officials and influential figures of the Western world finally convinced him that neither the naive desire Russia to become "his" in 90-e, or his own pragmatic approach to the proposals "mutually beneficial cooperation and equal partnership" does not work. I do not play a key role and personal diplomacy. Though personally with Bush, Berlusconi, Schroeder could have something to agree, the whole Atlantic roller machine continued to move to the East, ignoring the interests of Russia and protests.
Comrade wolf eats, no one is listening - so a few years later Putin will describe the behavior of the United States. But the fact that Putin began to speak openly after his return to the Kremlin in 2012 year, and especially after March 2014 years, would be impossible without Munich. That's Munich speech was his first experience of a frank conversation with the West.
At the same time, and in Russia it made a strong impression. We have long departed in silence, but now everything point, begin to say what they think - that's what was the main impression. February 10 2007 year marked the end of the post-Soviet period, "long-90's" geopolitical retreat. Although in reality it was over before, and Russia all zero, more and more trying to defend its national interests - until the president raised his voice in Russian society did not pay special attention these changes. And then everyone saw: lo, the new times. Of course, this caused most sincere support, strengthening and so high Putin's authority. And not only raised hopes that "this will not give up", "will fight", but also to future victories.
Or rather not even a victory, but a return. The Return of the Lost - safety, dignity and national interests. Russia at that time pressed in the geopolitical angle. The expansion of NATO to the east (the last turn was 2008-m, but most took place in 2004-m), ousting us from the former Soviet Union, including through the "color revolutions» 2003-2005 years. There was nowhere to retreat - and not necessary.
By 2007, Putin has eliminated the threat of collapse of the country, he built a power vertical and began to restore order in the economy. That is, the rear has been at least some form of fortified and could move on to the tough defense of national interests, to the return of the lost positions.
This was not a trivial revanchism - it was a clear understanding that the Russian civilization and the Russian government are moving from the defensive to the offensive.
After about a year after Putin's speech, the global economic crisis, which marked the end of the belief in the omnipotence of the infinite and the globalization of the financial pyramid, built on the basis of dollar hegemony, military force, and the US ideology. In the same 2008-m Russia responded to the provocation in South Ossetia - but only atlantists suspended their plans digestion of the former Soviet Union, without giving up any of the Ukraine and Moldova, Georgia or Armenia.
In 2011 was blazed the Middle East - and was present, Senator McCain has already happily written warning to Putin when Putin's Munich speech: here soon and get to Moscow. Putin returned to the Kremlin - and soon became the language of Munich more and more. After the Crimea, he could afford to be quite right - and in a speech in March 18 2014 years formulated the essence and purpose of the Russian response, Russian spring.
So what was discussed in Munich?
On the very simple things. The fact that the unipolar world is not held:
"The history of humanity certainly has gone through unipolar periods and seen aspirations to world supremacy. What has not happened in the history of mankind.
However, what is a unipolar world? Whatever embellish this term, it eventually means in practice one thing: one center of authority, one center of force, one center of decision-making.
It is a world of one master, one sovereign. And it ultimately is pernicious not only for all those within this system, but also for the sovereign itself because it destroys itself from within ...
I believe that in today's world the unipolar model is not only unacceptable but also impossible. And not only because if there was individual leadership in today's - and precisely in today's - and the world will not miss the military, political and economic resources. But what is more important - the model itself is flawed because at its basis there is and can be no moral foundations for modern civilization.
However, everything that happens in the world today, and we just started to discuss this - is a tentative to introduce precisely this concept into international affairs - the concept of a unipolar world. "
And what we see ten years later? Failed hegemon is not just lost the confidence in the world, not just lost a large portion of influence - he has broken, even within ourselves. The coming to power of Trump, who says that America should do is, rather than mythical globalization - is an attempt to a reasonable part of the American elite to save the great power of the US title. Which decade after Putin's speech, under the leadership of the globalists continued, albeit with a smaller swing (well, and the forces are not already), do what Putin said in 2007-m:
"Today we are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force in international affairs - military force - a force that is plunging the world into an abyss of one conflict. As a result, not enough strength to complete solution of any one of them. It becomes impossible and their political decision.
We see an increasing disdain for the basic principles of international law. More than that - independent legal norms are, in fact, almost the entire legal system of the state, first of all, of course, the United States, has overstepped its national borders in every way - and in the economy and in politics, and in the humanitarian sphere - imposed other States. Well, who likes this? Who will like it?
In international relations we increasingly see the desire to resolve a given question according to so-called political expediency, based on the current political situation.
And this, of course, extremely dangerous. And it leads to the fact that no one feels safe. I want to emphasize this - no one feels safe! Because no one can feel that international law is like a stone wall. Such a policy is, of course, the catalyst of the arms race.
The dominance of the factor of force inevitably encourages a number of countries to acquire weapons of mass destruction. More than that - fundamentally new threats that were known before, but now global in nature, such as terrorism.
I am convinced that we have reached that decisive moment when we must seriously think about the architecture of global security. "
Yes, we have come to this point still in 2007-m, but then American strategists still have the illusion that they will be able to continue its policy of building "Atlantic global world order." Now these illusions have no one else has - and has long been impossible to ignore China and Russia, which increasingly are building a parallel structure of world security, to start the Eurasian, through the SCO and the operation in Syria.
And there is still a chance for it to qualify for the global dominance of the Atlantic and Eurasian gaining strength steel structure is not a platform for new conflicts and wars, but the elements of the construction of a new secure system of international relations. Based on finding a balance of forces, to the multi-polar structure.
What do I need? Responsible and strategically-minded government in the West - such which can be dealt with. Ten years ago in Munich, Putin said exactly that, meaning, of course, first of all Europe, which then lacked independence. Today, with the advent of Trump and increasing the probability of renovation European elites, the possibility of Putin's wishes becomes higher:
"We very often, and I am personally very often hear appeals for Russia with our partners, including with the European partners, to play an increasingly active role in world affairs.
In this regard, let me make one small remark. It is unlikely that we need to push and promote this. Russia - a country with more than a thousand years of history, and it practically always used the privilege to carry out an independent foreign policy.
We are not going to change this tradition today. However, we clearly see how the world has changed, realistically assess their own abilities and their own potential. And, of course, we would also like to deal with responsible and independent partners with whom we could work on the construction of a just and democratic world order, ensuring security and prosperity not for a few, but for everyone. "