A strong always powerless to blame, that in the history of the darkness we hear of examples, but we do not write history "- so says the famous Russian fabulist Ivan Krylov followed by no less than the famous French fabulist Lafontaine.
Not everyone knows that Krylov wrote actually political fable, it was kind of pamphlets in verse dedicated to the most topic of the day, the most pressing policy issues at the time - and the domestic and foreign.
And written in 1808, the wonderful fable "The Wolf and the Lamb" is devoted to the policy of the then global hegemon Napoleon Bonaparte (partly in Germany and in Italy, where he shuffled the state as he wanted, but mainly in Spain, where he is taking advantage of its military power, lost powerless king Charles and his son Ferdinand, claimant to the throne, set him on the throne in Madrid his brother Jerome Bonaparte).
Who is to blame, it does not matter!
And these Krylov lines come to mind when we think about this strange, wonderful, so-called "retaliation", which ships the Mediterranean squadron of the US Navy inflicted on the Syrian air base. It was a very strange hit by any measure, at first glance, some quite vague gesture which does not pursue any purpose.
And many even agreed to the fact that just the American missiles "Tomahawk" ends shelf life, the Americans decided to shoot them to order new missile at the US manufacturers, though, perhaps, it is still not the case.
By this decision, Donald Trump made a very big mistake. The fact that the global political context is that Chinese President Xi Jinping at this time was in the United States.
China's position is quite clear, it is identical to the Russian one. Chemical attack is unacceptable in today's world, but you need to figure out exactly who was to blame for the tragedy in Idlib. There are reliable means of technical control, they may show who struck and whether it really was a chemical weapon.
Hard to believe that it was a chemical weapons Syrian Republic, mainly because Bashar al-Assad made no sense to use chemical weapons. Furthermore, because chemical weapons are not used by anyone except the terrorists.
Armies of chemical weapons can be used as a tactical and strategic, but in this case about the application does not go into the tactical purposes of conversation. Tactical chemical weapons are used to defeat artillery positions and trenches, and here is completely not the case.
If chemical weapons are used as strategic, it is used quite differently. Back in 20-ies of the last century, the concept of the use of chemical weapons in the strategic objectives developed the famous Italian military theorist of aviation war Douai, later it developed the British air marshals, still later took over the United States.
It has been studied and the Soviet military school, and Syrian officers were in our military academies.
So, the main principle in the use of chemical weapons in general and especially for strategic purposes - is massive. Nobody ever chemical weapons does not use one-time fee that is fired with one or two shells and all.
According to the doctrine of Douai (and there exists a method of careful calculations of the necessary forces and means of the application of chemical weapons against population centers: Guide and the area of the settlements, and the nature of development and the number of the population), the main thing - it is a mandatory requirement numbers, and, moreover, chemical weapons are used only in combination with other types of ammunition, first blow is high explosive bombs and incendiary then, and only then the area is filled with gases.
It is well-known things, and so the Syrian officers, who are very well trained in the Soviet and Russian military academies, would never use chemical weapons. And so there is no doubt that this despicable provocation against the Syrian armed forces.
And, of course, the analysis of the data of the engineering controls, referred to in our Ministry of Defense confirmed this. Chemical weapons do not apply at all.
Supreme Commander of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, Chinese President Xi Jinping was in the US, and in China a serious political decisions are taken collectively. Si, no doubt, had been unable to discuss in detail the US provocation of the CCP Politburo members and even the Politburo Standing Committee - it is very difficult after the state's official visit to Finland, being half a world away, take some quick action.
Trump put chairman Xi before the fact.
More than that, of course, after the US podzuzhivaniya these days the president of the Philippines Duterte announced the landing of Filipino troops on the disputed islands with China in the South China Sea, while China has said repeatedly that he will not tolerate such a thing.
Again, Xi Jinping put before the fact, and again the Supreme Commander of the Chinese People's Liberation Army is not able to do anything, because he is deprived of the opportunity to obtain information completely and to consult with their colleagues.
And, of course, Xi Jinping in China accused of that he had "lost face" as a result of the fact that the Americans put it before the fact, dealing a blow to Syria to bypass the United Nations and the Security Council.
Very soon, in a few months, China will be held the XIX Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which, as many believe, will solve the important issue of a third term Xi Jinping. The Chinese leadership, there is no unanimity on the question of whether Xi Jinping will be in power for three terms, or only two, and get a loss of face at a time for Xi Jinping very unpleasant. At Xi Jinping very good memory, and I think he will remember how he was received in Florida.
US strike itself was, of course, very strange. They were warned those who were bombed, they spent more than 50 missiles valued at half a million dollars each (although, say, half of them did not reach to the target). "Tomahawk" - the most powerful weapon of the American Navy, which killed at least a dozen people, and five or six of obsolete and broken planes of the Syrian Arab Army has been damaged. That there is no military significance in the operation was not simple. But, of course, she has a political meaning, because just such things no one else does.
Insane hysteria, which the Americans have deployed around the whole of the story, says that there was a serious financial support, because after all - even spineless and disciplined to a state of complete lack of conscience American journalists - it is obvious that it is impossible to apply retaliation before you I find out who is to blame.
And that's exactly what it is necessary to Russia's position. Press Secretary of the Russian President said that it was an act of aggression precisely because they have not yet figured out who used chemical weapons, because this shameless scams of the "White Helmets", with the filing of which is information, none of the serious people in the world seriously I believe, because they understand that it is biased, false and, in general, very unpleasant people, like all other centers for monitoring the situation in Syria - some kind of irresponsible and those who fear the truth London grocers.
the investigation is very difficult to hold Damascus, he is under the control of the rebels - all this unprincipled coalition of the Free Syrian Army, "Al-Qaeda", "Dzhabhat-en-Nusra" (they're well together). This is a terrible cesspool authorities is practically impossible to investigate.
From the very beginning, back in the year 2012, the Syrian leadership, in particular, Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Miqdad CAP, we are told that in the vast majority of Syria's population supports the Bashar al-Assad, with one exception - Idlib province.
And they said that in order to Idlib will seek specific solutions, and these solutions are political. In Idlib situation can not be solved by military means, as opposed to all the other places.
It was a demonstrative, empty and, in general, an aimless kick Americans. But very pragmatic people live in the United States. What was behind it?
Oil does not like sentimentality
It seems to me that it was a sort of punishment for the intractability of Bashar al-Assad. We remember that the US Secretary of State Rex (Pal) Tillerson himself, Donald Trump said that the fate of the Syrian president will address the Syrian people and the Syrian people who will choose to Americans and recognize. The Americans know very well that Bashar Assad will win any free elections.
But Tillerson - Wolf mother, experienced businessman with a death grip that nothing just never did give - not the person. And it certainly is something meant as compensation for concessions in the US line. And, given the experience, the most likely version of the questions seem to be of the oil sector.
We can assume that just after the statements Trump and Tillerson that the United States recognizes the sovereign choice of the Syrian people in the face of Bashar al-Assad, they have made an offer to the Syrians, the essence of which is extremely rough can be expressed as: your oil to us, Russian your gas and you for it keep Assad in power.
But, firstly, Bashar did not strongly clings to power, it simply no one will leave, because he is the real guarantor of the stability of the situation; and you just need to go to Syria many times to understand it right away. Without Bashar Syrians will kill each other, and therefore it has not been let go, simply because it is the guarantor of stability.
But the most important thing - it is a global trend of the oil industry when Western multinational corporations have begun hydrocarbon struggle to destroy the national oil companies (especially in OPEC countries).
Now we see that multinational companies have decided that it is time to finish with the independence of the national oil monopoly, is already under even invented an ideology - the ideology and beautiful! The IMF and the World Bank have conducted a conference beautiful outwardly, but inside is very mean-spirited slogan: "Natural wealth - is the property of all mankind."
That is, by this is meant that the oil - it is not the wealth of the Libyan, Iraqi (or Russian!) People, and this wealth of those who it can most effectively dispose of, that is the Anglo-American oil monopolies. And we see that they are not shy in the use of weapons, they seized control of Iraqi oil, they seize control of Libyan oil.
And now - Syria, which is very promising not so much in terms of its own production, as the transportation of oil (this is the shortest route from the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean, ie Europe). TNCs are trying to take control.
He wants oil tycoon Tillerson?
When Tillerson made an offer to Bashar that Bashar could not take (he was not a dictator and tyrant, he will not be allowed to take such proposals: to give the oil sector to foreigners), began a terrible, crazy, hysterical support of the American missile attack from France, Germany and other states. That is not to find out who is to blame, and the US has already stabbed.
In many ways, this shameless support of the French due to the fact that the former curator of the Syrian oil industry vice president Abdel Halim Khaddam, in 2006 was unmasked as one of the worst corruption, steals from the Syrian people, many billions of dollars, according to which the prison is crying, she is now hiding in France and it is protected by the French secret services, and coordinates a very large extent a revolt.
It was he who ensured the Western monopolies control of Syrian oil. And that's why they insist so much on the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, which does not allow foreigners to take control of the oil wealth of Syria.
And if we do not forget that Tillerson - directly representative of the oil business that Trump have very serious domestic pressure, he was forced to show that the Americans can do when Bashar will remain intractable.
This is a very dangerous game. In fact, tactically it was amazingly done. Russia was hard to directly intervene without the consent of Beijing. But China did not intervene when the territory of a potential enemy is the supreme commander and the head of the country, which it delivered in an extremely awkward position. Reaction Xi Jinping will be very tough.
This is not the kind of person who forgives, though, I think it will still not immediately, but rather after the XIX Congress of the Communist Party of China.
Confident in the US impunity behave very mean, "You are guilty in the fact that I want to eat." You, Bashar Assad, to blame so that you have the correct oil to us. It does not matter who used chemical weapons. It does not matter who produces chemical weapons.
Erdogan will help get rid of Putin Medvedev
No matter what the Nobel Peace Prize for the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria. It does not matter that chemical weapons no one in the world does not apply. We will strike on Syria. "
World when he wrote Ivan Krylov his remarkable fable, it was very unfair. Napoleon did what he wanted, overthrew the legitimate monarchs, becoming illegal, clocked republic, created the republic. He felt all-powerful, and have a strong always powerless to blame.
Similarly, Americans are behaving. But this is a very unfair world order, and more and more people will think so, and more and more people will not agree with the US position.
History is not over yet, and perhaps humanity will be able to stop the vile and mindless US aggression. Donald Trump has made a very big mistake, which he very much otoletsya. At Xi Jinping have a good memory, and he will remember what to do with him.