Today: January 18 2019
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Nothing is over. We are at the beginning

Nothing is over. We are at the beginning

Tags: West, Russia, Research, Policy, Army, USA, opinions, Trump

The most popular commentaries to the main event of the week in our journalism were calls not to overestimate the importance of what happened. It seems to me that almost all the experts underestimated him.

I became a man age cautious. So I sat and waited for consistently meeting electors, the approval by the Congress, and finally, the public oath. Only the formal transfer of power to the consolidation of this branch of the elite makes it possible to take stock of the past ten years and move on to new challenges. And they are quite new. And there is a question about our preparedness.

The previous decade began with the Munich speech of Putin and was a rather stupidly executed power blackmail of globalists. The statement of the Russian national elite about the withdrawal from the Washington Consensus was not taken seriously by anyone at first. The creators of post-truth decided that this is just a declaration for internal use and the crushed geopolitical rival simply calms its ochlos. But Georgia followed, to which a very specific answer was given. And then a funny split of the assessment happened. Russia was horrified at the level of its own fighting capacity, and the West satisfied it with satisfaction. Russia began mobilizing all forces for military restructuring, and the West again fell asleep, lulled by the level of Russian armed forces.

Therefore, when, after only five years, the contradictions with the Russian elite became absolutely uncompromising and the West, in irritation, made a riot on the outskirts of the new empire, it was absolutely not ready for a forceful response. These events are described many times in their genesis, but their main result was a complete audit of the military capabilities of the Western forces and the defense capability of Russia. As a result, the situation for the guardians of the old world order was completely deadlocked. They did not have any real forces for a quick victory, in principle, but the Russians do not know how to lose long wars, and therefore demonstrated their readiness for such a scenario. The closer these auditors were selected to the final report, the more clearly they showed hysterical notes. Because not only that the current situation is already very different from their preliminary assessment, but it also worsened every day. Russia has become increasingly militarily stronger, and the Western bloc has also weakened with each passing day.

By the second half of the year 16 come to understand that even the nuclear blackmail does not lead to Moscow in the excitement, and the fighting capacity is still not sufficiently numerous combat units so superior opponents, that about any large-scale war to think it is not necessary. Even if you put a gun the entire population of Ukraine and Poland, the confidence that Russia at least declare full mobilization, it was gone. Everything became more it seems that the main battlefield of the Russian Mix these trains to the ground just in exercise mode, as happened in Syria.

You can treat your opponent as you like, but you can not consider them fools. Even when you see Psak and Stoltenberg or Obama and Merkel before you, you must understand that these vegetables play the role assigned to them, sometimes even without understanding why they are in these places. And they cry with horror in pillows at night, realizing their complete inconsistency with their position in the world hierarchy. Here they are mistaken, they fully corresponded to the tasks set by the previous model. But she leaves. Rather, 20 of 2017 has already left XNUMX. And there will not be a military conflict now, I think, for another ten years. No, there will be local wars. Foci of resistance and direct conflict of interests will be created, but the global conflict will not be long enough.

Endless cut the military budget by US financiers ended that works on almost all modern types of weapons will have to start almost from scratch. And this at a time when Russia and China (sometimes together), are already moving from development to implementation and supply of such weapons to the troops. So until then, until the American military-industrial complex does not return its competence, does not run the model in production, not ottestiruet them and not put in the troops to start a big war to Americans - a suicide.

On Friday, the American elite officially formalized the transition to a new stage of development. All of Trump's ostentatious populism boils down to the fact that his task is precisely to restore the sovereign industrial and intellectual potential of the United States to restore the power component of the world management system. I do not consider the war to be a foregone conclusion, but in the existing model it is the most obvious way to create a single control and management center. And the need for such a center is dictated by the technological features of the world. Thus, common sense in Trump's slogans is just a reflection of the realism of the ruling world elites in the scenario of achieving the chosen goal.

The restructuring of the American economy requires restructuring the financial system and analyzing opportunities. The resource base of our overseas partners is not bad at all. It can be historically and geographically related to the whole of America, which is able to provide them with energy, mineral resources and food, and is quite populated both for replenishment of human capital and for the rotation, if not the elite, of all levels of government. In addition, there are enclaves in Africa (for example, Nigeria), there are opportunities to gather all the competencies of Europe and continue to cut wool from China and Russia on a wave of cooperation. That is, even in the simplest version with a full international detente, the US has all the necessary facilities for a restart and a new start.

There are less peaceful scenarios, including diplomatic conflicts and trade wars, but I want to say that even in the wake of the public peace, significant concessions and comprehensive discharge is not necessary to imagine our opponent weakened and surrendered. Even if Washington will hand us Europe and China - Southeast Asia, he will not leave attempts tactical weakening of Moscow and Beijing. No tactical triumvirate will not change the administration desires of unity of command.

First, to consider Europe as a prize would be extremely imprudent. This is a huge mass of people, spoiled by social privileges, which have no basis. If America at least prints money and calculates, then all the advantages of Europe somehow easily fit into obedience and unpretentious thinking. The level of their lives in the majority does not correspond at all to their contribution to real world production. In fact, all the results of their work are luxury goods. I'm not talking about Bugatti or Dom Perignon. Any shawl produced in Europe is much appreciated much higher than a similar thing produced, for example, in Asia. At the same time, the real consumer properties of their products often do not correspond to the legend about European quality. And high cost is not dictated by real value, but only by the level of necessary costs.

Secondly, by establishing such a new world order, America will in every possible way promote conflicts of interests between Russia and China. And there really will be a lot of them, because interests will be faced literally on every site. Even if the political leadership of both countries decides to work closely together and proclaim common goals, the current model will lead to tensions in a large number of points. There is also Russian-Japanese cooperation in the Far East, and deep penetration of Chinese corporations into Central Asia, and access to oil and gas in the Middle East and much more. Against the background of the closure of the US market, Europe will become for China simply a vital region. Well, it should be noted that with any declarations, the US will have enough tools to project its own interests by exerting pressure on parts of the elites of former vassals. Even in conditions of maximum sovereignization of the leading European countries and withdrawal of their forces from the gradually exhausted Persian Gulf, Washington will always have enough of its followers, which will significantly interfere with the interaction of national elites with Moscow and Beijing.

These are very large strokes of a new picture of the world, but even with such low detail it is clear that the victory may turn out to be Pirrova and will not bring relief to Russia's national interests. Actually, this circumstance prompted me to make my debut on this resource. Because it is seen by many and quite clearly, but the solutions are offered either absolutely confrontational, or purely tactical. But any peace is really better than any war. And the mantra that we do not like to fight, but we can, are good for propagandists, but not for analysts. And tactical decisions can be forced and develop a position precisely for those scenarios that are required by our opponents.

Reformatting the global economy will take place together with the total restructuring of the financial system, because to begin technical re strongly de-industrialized country with such a volume of debt is simply impossible, and therefore it will be manageable. But as the main issuer at the moment and is the world's main debtor, hence the financial terms of the restructuring will be chosen them. And something tells me that not only do they have nothing to lose, but earn little.

Trying to make money on this process is possible for us, but this in any case will be a tactical task. Any manager knows that at the time of the crisis, the optimal strategy is to have a sufficient amount of raw materials in the warehouse and a zero balance when liabilities are covered with balances and deposits in the same currencies and payment instruments. With this, we are not so bad, in about this condition, our finances are located. It remains to be seen how stable the internal structure is for external shocks to come out of such changes without serious losses and to remain in power to become one of the poles of crystallization of the new world order.

And here there is a large number of questions in the industrial structure. If food safety problems have been formulated and solved in a timely manner, the transport routes are straightened to the extent possible in strict accordance with our needs and geopolitical opportunities in the matter of industrial production remain significant disparities that can disrupt our economic sovereignty at the time of violation of international co-operation.

But the biggest problem I see is extremely inefficient management system. Corruption is in fact not terrible envelopes and short-term consumer satisfaction morbid instincts of some officials. The most unpleasant result of this phenomenon is expressed in violation of planning changes and failure to reach the results. Few decide to build, for example, a machine-tool factory and provide it with all necessary resources. A weak leader and the money stolen, and can not build anything.

Without addressing these issues, we risk losing very quickly all of the political arrangements of the new world order. The time will be lost, and our opponents will solve their own problems and are not interested in giving us a new delay.

That is why it is completely unimportant at what speed Washington's plans for a new foreign policy and economic course will be launched and implemented. The main task of the Kremlin today is to become an internal policy. It should include the restoration of a self-sufficient industrial potential, the consolidation of society on the basis of not economic slogans, but economic tasks, as well as the maximum nationalization in a broad sense of strategic industrial capital. We are not talking about the immediate transition of the main production capacities into state property. The task is to consolidate all our industrial assets regardless of the form of ownership in the hands of Russian residents united by a common understanding of state tasks.

This does not mean that the former problem can be considered as already satisfied. Modernization and re-equipment of the army should be completed in a timely manner. The decision of the full food safety problems in the country must be brought to its logical conclusion in all sectors. Creation of energy circuits in the East that can create a full-fledged alternative to the West, must be completed in accordance with the contracts and agreements. Foreign policy initiatives also need to be brought to a steady state at all points in which we got involved in them.

But all new priorities should shift from external positioning to solving internal problems. And the mobilization of all domestic resources for such ambitious tasks should be based on national consensus. Ideological, structural and social. The Russians are easy to consolidate for the sake of victory, it is necessary to articulate the goals and tasks of the new stage so clearly, as well as the fair conditions for the distribution of the load and result, in order to evoke the same emotional effect in peacetime. This is the only way to achieve the manageability of the process, the reliability and quality of planning and parity with America by the time it resolves its problems. And she will solve them.

Or believe in Yellowstone with aliens. For some time, this faith may be enough.

Author's comment:

This debut. There was no problem to make happy all at once the light of truth, but rather just to introduce themselves and outline the main views, only later to come back to general issues.

* - As this reading is not an isolated case, I will explain here about the Munich speech. She began the decade of the power of blackmail on the part of the West. Blackmail, this was carried out silly. I agree that the proposal somewhat crooked, but edit the text did not.

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