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23.01.2017 - 16: 03

Nothing is over. We are at the beginning

The most popular commentaries to the main event of the week in our journalism were calls not to overestimate the importance of what happened. It seems to me that almost all the experts underestimated him.

I became a man age cautious. So I sat and waited for consistently meeting electors, the approval by the Congress, and finally, the public oath. Only the formal transfer of power to the consolidation of this branch of the elite makes it possible to take stock of the past ten years and move on to new challenges. And they are quite new. And there is a question about our preparedness.

Previous decade began with Putin's Munich speech, and was a pretty silly of the power of blackmail globalists *. Statement by Russian national elite to withdraw from the Washington Consensus even first no one took seriously. The creators decided to post-truth, that this is only a declaration for internal use and is crushed by the geopolitical opponent just calms your ohlos. But followed by Georgia, which is quite specific answer was given. And here there was a funny split case evaluation. Russia was horrified by the level of combat capability of its own, and the West was pleased to note it. Russia began to mobilize all forces for military restructuring and the West had fallen asleep again, lulled by the level of the Russian armed forces.

So when after only five years of conflict with the Russian elite have become totally uncompromising and West irritation arranged mutiny on the outskirts of the new empire, he absolutely was not prepared to use force response. These events are described many times in its genesis, but the main result was the full audit of the military capabilities of Western forces and Russia's defense capability. As a result, the situation of the old world order keepers developed quite a dead-end. The real forces for their quick victory was not, in principle, and many Russian war play just do not know how, and so demonstrated a willingness to such scenarios. The closer the auditors were selected for the final report, the more clearly they stood out hysterical tone. Because it is not enough that the current situation is very different from its preliminary assessment, but it is more and worse with each passing day. Russia in the military was getting stronger, and the western bloc also weakened with each passing day.

By the second half of the year 16 come to understand that even the nuclear blackmail does not lead to Moscow in the excitement, and the fighting capacity is still not sufficiently numerous combat units so superior opponents, that about any large-scale war to think it is not necessary. Even if you put a gun the entire population of Ukraine and Poland, the confidence that Russia at least declare full mobilization, it was gone. Everything became more it seems that the main battlefield of the Russian Mix these trains to the ground just in exercise mode, as happened in Syria.

You can somehow relate to our opponent, but we can not consider them fools. Even when you see before you and Jen Psaki Stoltenberg and Obama and Merkel, you should understand that these vegetables play their roles, sometimes without even realizing why they are in these places. And the cry of horror in the pillow at night, knowing your complete mismatch to its position in the global hierarchy. Here they are wrong, they are fully in line with targets set by their predecessor. But she leaves. Or rather, it had already gone in January 20 2017 years. And a military conflict is not now, I think, for another ten years. No, the war will be local. There are pockets of resistance and created a direct conflict of interest, but the global conflict is not yet long enough.

Endless cut the military budget by US financiers ended that works on almost all modern types of weapons will have to start almost from scratch. And this at a time when Russia and China (sometimes together), are already moving from development to implementation and supply of such weapons to the troops. So until then, until the American military-industrial complex does not return its competence, does not run the model in production, not ottestiruet them and not put in the troops to start a big war to Americans - a suicide.

On Friday, the US elite formalized the transition to a new stage of development. All the flashy populism Trump comes down to the fact that its task is just part of the restoration of sovereign industrial and intellectual potential of the United States to restore the power component of the global management system. I do not consider war a foregone conclusion, but the current model is the most obvious way to create a single point of control and management. And the need for such a center is already dictated by the technological features of the world. Thus, common sense slogans Trump is just a reflection of the realism of the ruling elites in the global scenario to achieve the selected target.

The restructuring of the US economy requires restructuring of the financial system, and analysis capabilities. The resource base for our overseas partners very good. For it is historically and geographically include all of America that it is able to provide them with energy, and mineral resources, and food, and quite populated how to fill the human capital, and for the rotation of elites if not, then all levels of management. In addition, there are enclaves in Africa (eg., Nigeria), there is the possibility to collect all the competences of Europe and the wave of collaboration to continue to cut the wool from China and Russia. That is, even in its simplest form with full international detente in the United States have all the necessary capabilities to reboot and a new start.

There are less peaceful scenarios, including diplomatic conflicts and trade wars, but I want to say that even in the wake of the public peace, significant concessions and comprehensive discharge is not necessary to imagine our opponent weakened and surrendered. Even if Washington will hand us Europe and China - Southeast Asia, he will not leave attempts tactical weakening of Moscow and Beijing. No tactical triumvirate will not change the administration desires of unity of command.

First, consider Europe as a prize it would be extremely imprudent. This is a huge mass of people, spoiled the social privileges that are without any basis. If America even prints the money and leads the calculations, all the advantages of a Europe-it is easy to fit into obedience and unpretentious thinking. The level of their lives for the most part does not correspond to their real contribution to the world production. In fact, all the results of their work are luxuries. I'm not talking about the Bugatti or Dom Perignon. Any shirt, produced in Europe is valued much higher than a similar item produced, for example, in Asia. At the same time the real consumer properties of their products often does not correspond to the legend of European quality. And the high cost is dictated not by the real value, but only the required level of costs.

Secondly, setting a new world order, America will encourage conflicts of interests between Russia and China. And they are really going to be a lot, because the interests will collide at every site. Even if the political leadership of both countries will decide on the close cooperation and proclaim the same goals, the current model will lead to stresses in a large number of points. Here and Russian-Japanese cooperation in the Far East, and deep penetration of Chinese corporations in Central Asia, and access to Naftogaz Middle East and many more. Against the backdrop of the closure of the US market Europe will become a vital region for China. Well, it is worth considering that in all the declarations of the US will have enough tools to project its own interests by exerting pressure on the part of the elites of the former vassals. Even in conditions of maximum sovereignty of the leading European countries and the withdrawal of its forces from the Persian Gulf are gradually depleting, Washington always remain enough of their followers, who will significantly interfere with the interaction of national elites with Moscow and Beijing.

This is a very large strokes of a new picture of the world, but even with such a low detail it is clear that the victory may prove Pyrrhic, and will not bring relief to the national interests of Russia. Actually, it is this fact prompted me to debut on this resource. Because it is seen by many, and quite clearly, but the solutions are offered either absolutely confrontational or purely tactical. But all the world is really better than any war. And the mantra that we do not like to fight, but we are able to be good for the promoters, but not to analysts. A tactical decisions can be forced to develop and position it on the scenarios, which are required by our opponents.

Reformatting the global economy will take place together with the total restructuring of the financial system, because to begin technical re strongly de-industrialized country with such a volume of debt is simply impossible, and therefore it will be manageable. But as the main issuer at the moment and is the world's main debtor, hence the financial terms of the restructuring will be chosen them. And something tells me that not only do they have nothing to lose, but earn little.

Trying to capitalize on this process and we can be, but in any case it is a tactical challenge. Any manager knows that at the time of crisis, the best strategy is to have a sufficient amount of raw materials in the warehouse and the zero balance of the obligations covered residues and deposits in the same currency and payment instruments. With that we have is not so bad about this state and our finances are. It remains to find out how stable the internal structure to external shocks, to get out of such changes without serious losses and stay in power to become one of the poles of the crystallization of a new world order.

And here there is a large number of questions in the industrial structure. If food safety problems have been formulated and solved in a timely manner, the transport routes are straightened to the extent possible in strict accordance with our needs and geopolitical opportunities in the matter of industrial production remain significant disparities that can disrupt our economic sovereignty at the time of violation of international co-operation.

But the biggest problem I see is extremely inefficient management system. Corruption is in fact not terrible envelopes and short-term consumer satisfaction morbid instincts of some officials. The most unpleasant result of this phenomenon is expressed in violation of planning changes and failure to reach the results. Few decide to build, for example, a machine-tool factory and provide it with all necessary resources. A weak leader and the money stolen, and can not build anything.

Without addressing these issues, we risk losing very quickly all of the political arrangements of the new world order. The time will be lost, and our opponents will solve their own problems and are not interested in giving us a new delay.

That is why it does not matter at what speed will be initiated and implemented by Washington's plans for a new foreign policy and economic policy. The main objective of the Kremlin today should become internal policy. It should include the restoration of self-sufficient industrial capacity, consolidation of society on the basis not of political slogans, and economic problems, as well as the nationalization of the most broadly strategic industrial capital. We are not talking about an immediate change of main production facilities in state ownership. The problem lies in the fact that regardless of ownership to consolidate all our industrial assets in the hands of Russian residents, united by a common understanding of state problems.

This does not mean that the former problem can be considered as already satisfied. Modernization and re-equipment of the army should be completed in a timely manner. The decision of the full food safety problems in the country must be brought to its logical conclusion in all sectors. Creation of energy circuits in the East that can create a full-fledged alternative to the West, must be completed in accordance with the contracts and agreements. Foreign policy initiatives also need to be brought to a steady state at all points in which we got involved in them.

But all the new priorities should be shifted from the external positioning in the solution of internal problems. And the mobilization of all domestic resources for such ambitious targets should be based on national consensus. Ideological, structural and social. Russian easily consolidated in order to win, you need to so clearly articulate goals and objectives of a new phase, as well as fair conditions of load distribution and the result to trigger the same emotional effect in time of peace. The only way to achieve process manageability, reliability, and quality planning and parity with the United States to the point where she decides their problems. And it is they decide.

Or believe in Yellowstone with aliens. For some time, this faith may be enough.

Author's comment:

This debut. There was no problem to make happy all at once the light of truth, but rather just to introduce themselves and outline the main views, only later to come back to general issues.

* - As this reading is not an isolated case, I will explain here about the Munich speech. She began the decade of the power of blackmail on the part of the West. Blackmail, this was carried out silly. I agree that the proposal somewhat crooked, but edit the text did not.

A source: A

Author: cuggxa

Tags: West, Russia, Research, Policy, Army, USA, opinions, Trump