The fate of Ukraine for the umpteenth time to discuss without the participation of Ukraine. The heads of Russia, France and Germany, as it became known on Tuesday, agreed to meet and discuss the situation in Ukraine with each other, without Poroshenko. It is noteworthy that at the same time Kiev suddenly made it clear that he was ready for an agreement on the cultivation of the warring parties in the Donbass. What will contain the document and how it will perform?
On Tuesday, a representative of Kiev in the subgroup on safety on the Minsk talks Yevhen Marchuk said the publication "Commander in Chief" that already on Friday, August 26, the Contact Group for a settlement in the Donbass plans to complete work on a plan of breeding sides.
According to him, immediately after the conclusion of the agreement the warring parties will work to determine the first regions where it will be used, first on an experimental basis.
The peace process has begun already squares
"An agreement of the parties, at first it will be a kind of squares on the line of contact of two for two kilometers. To see how this will work. There is a preliminary agreement on what precisely three sites we take to work. It's quite troublesome work - there is everything and ensuring the regime of silence, and topography, and clearance ", - he explained.
Also on Tuesday, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andrei Melnik announced the completion of the project on the withdrawal of the armed forces from the contact line. "The other day this project was agreed upon," Tass quoted him. In the near future, he said, the document should be presented to the leaders of the "Norman Quartet". At the same time, the security issues and the issue of holding elections in the Donbass remain the main issues, Melnik noted. In turn, the ambassador of Ukraine in France, Oleg Shamshur complained about the "hypertrophied desire" of Paris to hold elections despite everything and certainly this year. In his opinion, this is dictated by the peculiarities of France's domestic policy. The choir of ambassadors was joined by the head of the Ukrainian mission in Canada, Andriy Shevchenko. He acknowledged that the world community is tired of the Ukrainian crisis, not only because of the conflict in the Donbass, but also because of the slow changes in the country itself.
Recall: in addition to the cease-fire and withdrawal of forces from the contact line, Minsk agreements also involve the local elections, amnesty for participants in the conflict and the constitutional reform Ukraine itself to the provision of the special status of certain regions of Donbass.
At the same time it became known that the Kyiv going to withdraw from the Donbass volunteers - "territorial battalions" of the National Guard of Ukraine. This was stated by the representative of the People's Militia self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic Andrei Marochko, referring to the LC intelligence. According Marochko, this is due primarily to the fact that the data unit has not moved to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, remain unmanaged, leading to conflicts with the regular units of the APU (Ukrainian Armed Forces).
However, the anarchy in volunteer battalions reported more than a year. It is possible that the decision to withdraw them from the Donbas is also related to the decision to conclude Kiev finally a full ceasefire.
According to the website of the Kremlin, the leaders of Russia, Germany and France, Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande discussed by telephone including a cease-fire in the Donbass, the withdrawal of troops and heavy weapons from the demarcation line. The necessity of strict observance of the ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy weapons under the supervision of the OSCE mission, as well as to de-escalate the situation further measures, "including withdrawal of forces and the establishment of demilitarized zones." Putin recalled the Ukrainian saboteurs in the Crimea, calling it a gross provocation by Kiev.
Without me me Mirili
As a result, the leaders agreed to meet in early September in China, on the margins of the G-20 summit, and again discuss the situation in Ukraine, but only three, that is, without the Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko. But it was Poroshenko, as stated in early August, put forward the initiative to meet the participants of the "Norman format" in early September in China. It can be assumed that Kiev's sudden complacency at the negotiations in Minsk is connected with the decision of the Western leaders to openly open discussion of the Ukrainian issue without the participation of Ukraine itself. In the past two years, the West has flatly refused this format.
In addition, it is important to note that Vladimir Putin, in fact, kept his word - referring to his statement immediately after the capture of the Crimea Ukrainian saboteurs. "In these conditions occur in" Norman format ", especially in China, it is meaningless, because, apparently, the people who took over at the time the authorities in Kiev and continued to hold her, instead of searching for compromise, instead of looking for ways of peaceful settlement, went to the practice of terror "- the Russian president said after the incident.
In other words, the incident with the Ukrainian catching saboteurs, in fact, pushed from Poroshenko extremely important for him to the negotiation process.
Director of the Kiev Center for Political and Conflict Studies Mikhail Pogrebinsky believes that after the detention of subversive groups in Crimea Ukrainian leadership was cornered.
"Moscow has provided European partners in the" Norman format "and the United States with convincing evidence of Kiev's guilt in recent Crimean sabotage. In this situation, Poroshenko will be forced to demonstrate readiness to make concessions. Therefore, it is likely that on Thursday Ukraine will indeed come up with an achievable constructive proposal for the demobilization of the armed forces in the Donbas. The same Putin will again sit with him at the negotiating table only after demonstrating real actions to implement the Minsk agreements. Some of the assurances given to Nursultan Nazarbayev of readiness to compromise the Kremlin are not enough, "the expert told VZGLYAD.
In addition, Pogrebinsky said that, judging by the information from social networks in recent days have increased significantly the loss of the Ukrainian side in the Donbass, therefore Kiev is interested in is to stop the bloodshed. However, Pogrebinsky is questionable whether the Ukrainian version of the agreement on the cultivation of the forces received by the other party to the negotiations.
However, the "opposite side of the talks" is extremely optimistic. As the plenipotentiary representative of the People's Republic of Finland in the Minsk negotiations, Vladislav Daney, told the newspaper, earlier Ukraine took an absolutely unconstructive position on the issue of the armed forces and insisted on those things that were absolutely unacceptable for the republics. Marchuk's report on the divorce plan for two kilometers from the Danei frontline did not refute, suggesting that Kiev really decided to compromise, and on Thursday a "more constructive variant" of the breeding of forces will be provided.
"Now it all depends on what exactly will be written in the agreement, which offers Marchuk. If Ukraine listened as our suggestions and proposals to the OSCE, we are willing to sign these agreements. Otherwise, progress will not be ", - said Dana VIEW newspaper, refusing to clarify what exactly is the recent controversy.
"Golden" Lots of truce
"The document is, it is already more than three meetings discussed in Minsk - confirmed by RIA" Novosti "and his colleague from the DNI Dennis Pushilin. - There is a concerted areas: Petrovsky in the DNI and the gold in the LC, but Ukraine has made some of the nuances in these documents, which is unacceptable to us. All discussions go around it. Once we find a compromise here, it will be possible to say that the document is ready for signing. "
However, the commander of the "Vostok" battalion of the national militia DNR Alexander Khodakovsky believes that from a technical point of view, breeding of forces - for example, a kilometer - can take place at any time, but the military and political situation for this is still not suitable.
"The tension on the contact line does not subside, the provocation from the Ukrainian armed forces are made regularly. In addition, the underlying reason remains unclear Ukrainian sabotage in the Crimea. We have in the Donbass have reason to believe that what was happening in the Crimea - a part of a larger plan, which included including aggravation on our front. In this situation, make a withdrawal of forces is simply unrealistic, "- said the newspaper VIEW Khodakovsky.
The battalion commander said that the recent provocations single Ukrainian forces took a regular character. "Clashes and shelling almost ceased in the area of the industrial zone in Yasinovataya, Horlivka, some areas of the south of the Donetsk People's Republic. In this situation, our challenge is to maintain the integrity of our Republic, the divorce of the armed forces can not speak, "- said Khodakovsky.