The fate of Ukraine for the umpteenth time to discuss without the participation of Ukraine. The heads of Russia, France and Germany, as it became known on Tuesday, agreed to meet and discuss the situation in Ukraine with each other, without Poroshenko. It is noteworthy that at the same time Kiev suddenly made it clear that he was ready for an agreement on the cultivation of the warring parties in the Donbass. What will contain the document and how it will perform?
On Tuesday, a representative of Kiev in the subgroup on safety on the Minsk talks Yevhen Marchuk said the publication "Commander in Chief" that already on Friday, August 26, the Contact Group for a settlement in the Donbass plans to complete work on a plan of breeding sides.
According to him, immediately after the conclusion of the agreement the warring parties will work to determine the first regions where it will be used, first on an experimental basis.
The peace process has begun already squares
"An agreement of the parties, at first it will be a kind of squares on the line of contact of two for two kilometers. To see how this will work. There is a preliminary agreement on what precisely three sites we take to work. It's quite troublesome work - there is everything and ensuring the regime of silence, and topography, and clearance ", - he explained.
Also Tuesday, the completion of work on the project to divert forces from the contact line of said Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk. "The other day was coordinated this project," - quoted him TASS. In the near future, according to him, the document must be submitted to the leaders of "Norman Quartet". However, the major issues are the problem of security and the question of the elections in the Donbass, Miller said. In turn, the Ambassador of Ukraine Oleh Shamshur in France complained about the "exaggerated desire" of Paris to hold the elections in spite of everything, and certainly this year. According to him, this is dictated by the peculiarities of French domestic politics. By this choir joined the ambassadors and the head of the Ukrainian mission to Canada Andriy Shevchenko. He acknowledged that the international community is tired of the Ukrainian crisis, and not only because of the conflict in the Donbass, but also due to the slow changes in the country.
Recall: in addition to the cease-fire and withdrawal of forces from the contact line, Minsk agreements also involve the local elections, amnesty for participants in the conflict and the constitutional reform Ukraine itself to the provision of the special status of certain regions of Donbass.
At the same time it became known that the Kyiv going to withdraw from the Donbass volunteers - "territorial battalions" of the National Guard of Ukraine. This was stated by the representative of the People's Militia self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic Andrei Marochko, referring to the LC intelligence. According Marochko, this is due primarily to the fact that the data unit has not moved to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, remain unmanaged, leading to conflicts with the regular units of the APU (Ukrainian Armed Forces).
However, the anarchy in volunteer battalions reported more than a year. It is possible that the decision to withdraw them from the Donbas is also related to the decision to conclude Kiev finally a full ceasefire.
According to the website of the Kremlin, the leaders of Russia, Germany and France, Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande discussed by telephone including a cease-fire in the Donbass, the withdrawal of troops and heavy weapons from the demarcation line. The necessity of strict observance of the ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy weapons under the supervision of the OSCE mission, as well as to de-escalate the situation further measures, "including withdrawal of forces and the establishment of demilitarized zones." Putin recalled the Ukrainian saboteurs in the Crimea, calling it a gross provocation by Kiev.
Without me me Mirili
As a result, the leaders agreed to meet in early September in China, on the summit of G-20 fields, and re-discuss the situation in Ukraine, but only three of them, that is, without the Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko. And it was Poroshenko as stated in the beginning of August, took the initiative of meeting participants, "Norman format" in the beginning of September in China. It can be assumed that the sudden pliancy of Kiev at the talks in Minsk connected with the decision of Western leaders openly start a discussion of the Ukrainian question without the participation of Ukraine itself. In the past two years, the West has flatly refused such a format.
In addition, it is important to note that Vladimir Putin, in fact, kept his word - referring to his statement immediately after the capture of the Crimea Ukrainian saboteurs. "In these conditions occur in" Norman format ", especially in China, it is meaningless, because, apparently, the people who took over at the time the authorities in Kiev and continued to hold her, instead of searching for compromise, instead of looking for ways of peaceful settlement, went to the practice of terror "- the Russian president said after the incident.
In other words, the incident with the Ukrainian catching saboteurs, in fact, pushed from Poroshenko extremely important for him to the negotiation process.
Director of the Kiev Center for Political and Conflict Studies Mikhail Pogrebinsky believes that after the detention of subversive groups in Crimea Ukrainian leadership was cornered.
"Moscow has granted the European partners" Norman format "and the US is strong evidence of guilt of Kiev in recent Crimean sabotage. In this situation, Poroshenko will have to demonstrate a willingness to make concessions. Therefore, it is likely that on Thursday Ukraine really will make a feasible design proposal for the divorce of the armed forces in the Donbas. The same Putin again sit down with him to the negotiating table only after demonstration of real action on the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Some are transmitted through Nursultan Nazarbayev assurances of readiness to compromise the Kremlin few "- the expert told the newspaper VIEW.
In addition, Pogrebinsky said that, judging by the information from social networks in recent days have increased significantly the loss of the Ukrainian side in the Donbass, therefore Kiev is interested in is to stop the bloodshed. However, Pogrebinsky is questionable whether the Ukrainian version of the agreement on the cultivation of the forces received by the other party to the negotiations.
However, "the opposing party talks" is set to be extremely optimistic. According to the newspaper VIEW plenipotentiary of the LC on the Minsk talks Vladislav Dana, previously Ukraine was on the breeding of the armed forces are absolutely non-constructive position and insisted on those things that are totally unacceptable to the republics. Post Marchuk about the plan of divorce troops two kilometers from the front line to deny Dana did not, suggesting that Kiev actually decided to go for a compromise, and Thursday will be given a "more constructive option" Breeding forces.
"Now it all depends on what exactly will be written in the agreement, which offers Marchuk. If Ukraine listened as our suggestions and proposals to the OSCE, we are willing to sign these agreements. Otherwise, progress will not be ", - said Dana VIEW newspaper, refusing to clarify what exactly is the recent controversy.
"Golden" Lots of truce
"The document is, it is already more than three meetings discussed in Minsk - confirmed by RIA" Novosti "and his colleague from the DNI Dennis Pushilin. - There is a concerted areas: Petrovsky in the DNI and the gold in the LC, but Ukraine has made some of the nuances in these documents, which is unacceptable to us. All discussions go around it. Once we find a compromise here, it will be possible to say that the document is ready for signing. "
However, the commander of the "Vostok" battalion of the national militia DNR Alexander Khodakovsky believes that from a technical point of view, breeding of forces - for example, a kilometer - can take place at any time, but the military and political situation for this is still not suitable.
"The tension on the contact line does not subside, the provocation from the Ukrainian armed forces are made regularly. In addition, the underlying reason remains unclear Ukrainian sabotage in the Crimea. We have in the Donbass have reason to believe that what was happening in the Crimea - a part of a larger plan, which included including aggravation on our front. In this situation, make a withdrawal of forces is simply unrealistic, "- said the newspaper VIEW Khodakovsky.
The battalion commander said that the recent provocations single Ukrainian forces took a regular character. "Clashes and shelling almost ceased in the area of the industrial zone in Yasinovataya, Horlivka, some areas of the south of the Donetsk People's Republic. In this situation, our challenge is to maintain the integrity of our Republic, the divorce of the armed forces can not speak, "- said Khodakovsky.