The White House unveiled a new strategy for US national security. The main idea of the document: The states were challenged by the so-called revisionist countries, which, according to the authors of the document, threaten the entire existing world order. The "revisionists" are China and, to a lesser extent, Russia. And some passages of the document, oddly enough, are more positive for Russia.
Promulgated on Monday, the National Security Strategy, designed to become a kind of foreign policy manifesto of President Donald Trump, was preparing for a long time.
True, on the eve of the document "dissipated" in the newspaper Wall Street Journal. And a little earlier, many of his theses were read by Lieutenant-General Herbert McMaster, Presidential Adviser on National Security. It was the general who was one of the drafters of the strategy and his ideas formed the basis for it.
Unlike Obama's security strategy, the current one does not mention climate change as a threat, and there is no question of finding a way to create a world without nuclear weapons. On the contrary, it speaks of an increase in the strength of the armed forces, while rejecting the thesis that the improvement of military technologies neutralizes the reduction in the size of the army. It requires a document and strengthening of missile defenses, as well as the deployment of more modern nuclear weapons. At the same time, Washington declares that its missile defense systems are not aimed at undermining relations with China and Russia.
"Geopolitics has returned, and today it avenges us," McMaster said in London. There is no hint in the strategy that opponents of the United States are their ideological opponents. The era when America's foreign policy was conceived as a confrontation of the "forces of good" (the "free world" with the Americans at the head) "to the forces of evil" is a thing of the past. Now, judging by the strategy, America's only allies are its economy and its armed forces.
"The strength of the US must remain unchanged and self-sufficient, the United States must initiate competitive diplomacy, focused on protecting American interests. We do not intend to spread our values to others, "the document says.
Those with whom the US intend to fight with the help of "competitive" diplomacy now, the strategy is clearly outlined - this is China and Russia. "China and Russia want to form a world that is contrary to the values and interests of the United States," the authors of the document write, adding:
"Russia seeks to restore its status as a great power and establish spheres of influence near its borders."
These two countries are described as forces that violate the existing world order. Russia does this in neighboring countries (Georgia and Ukraine are mentioned), China - in the South China Sea, claiming a number of islands in this area.
It is significant that the "revisionist countries" in the strategy are clearly separated from the "rogue states" - North Korea and Iran, which seem to be less serious threats from the point of view of the authors of the document. Nevertheless, they are expected to act tough in their attitude. According to the strategy, it is necessary "to inform the opponents that we can win and defeat them, and not only punish them if they attack the United States."
For example, the US seriously believes that North Korea plans to "kill a million Americans" using nuclear weapons. Washington is confident that it and Iran threaten not only the states, but also "destabilize the regions."
The rest of the accusations in the 67-page document on these two countries are just as serious: it is the provocation of an arms race, attempts to control the dissemination of information and attempts to actively influence the formation of world public opinion.
In rebukes, the two countries also aim to control the economy ("making it less open and honest" in the terminology of the document). And the main "revisionist" to which American claims have accumulated most of all is not Russia, but just one of the leaders of the world economy - China.
"There are three groups challenging us: China and Russia with their revisionist aspirations, rogue states Iran and North Korea and transnational organizations, in particular, jihadist terrorist groups. All of them are actively acting against the US, our allies and partners. Although they are different in nature, they all challenge us in the political, economic and military spheres, actively using information technology to shift the regional balance of power to their advantage. This is a fundamental conflict between repressive political regimes and a free society, "the strategy published in the White House website (translation of the newspaper VZGLYAD) says.
In the list of threats there are not only international terrorist groups, but also criminal cartels.
Our relations with the United States predicted a thaw
Rivalry with these two countries "requires the US to review the policies of the last two decades - a policy based on the assumption that contacts with opponents and their inclusion in international structures and world trade will turn them into non-dangerous players and partners that can be trusted."
Leading researcher of the Institute of the Far East Vasily Kashin believes that such a remark has a very important, revolutionary significance precisely in the context of US relations with China.
"Formal declaration of China by the revisionist country is an important step, an end to the long discussions that were going on in the American expert community," he said in a conversation with the newspaper VZGLYAD. - American political scientists argued whether China could, under certain conditions, integrate into the US-created world order. Now the official point of view: it can not. Now, I think, the American-Chinese rivalry will only grow. "
But the expert is not sure that Russian-American rivalry will intensify.
"It is clear that our relations with the United States are now much worse than those of China and America: we have contradictions much more acute. But in the long term, it will be in China and the United States that they will have a systemic character, - believes Kashin. - Due to the fact that China has set itself the task to reach the level of developed countries in the consumption to GDP by the fiftieth year, it will have to carry out a very large redistribution of influence in the world economy. So, he will have to squeeze all the current world leaders in most sectors of the world economy. "
Rivalry between the US and China, according to Kashin, gives a chance for a rapprochement between Moscow and Washington. Since 70-ies, the Americans adhered to the immutable rule: not to allow an alliance between China and Russia. To this end, the US tried to make their relations with each of these countries better than the Sino-Russian relations. Now the Americans, by virtue of a combination of circumstances, retreated from this course.
"But you should not think that in the US they do not realize that this is a problem," Kashin believes. - There is an understanding that sooner or later Russia will have to negotiate, because the contradictions with it are local, not systemic. Nevertheless, given the peculiarities of US domestic policy, this can happen in five and ten years' time. Maybe then it will be too late. "
However, all this is just an expert's forecast. Politicians in Moscow while in the document any hints on a thaw have not found. As the Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs, and more recently our Ambassador to the United States Sergey Kislyak, the new strategy "does not mean that the US is inclined to build partnership relations with Russia."
As Kislyak noted, any statements aimed at improving relations cause a "positive attitude". However, this attitude "always stumbles upon what the US administration does in the long run," RIA Novosti quotes him.
The strategy was written for a long time, but it is noteworthy that its publication either coincided, or purposely occurred immediately after several telephone conversations between Putin and Trump, after which an unnamed representative of the US presidential administration announced that relations between the two countries had improved in recent months.