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The new war for the redistribution of the Balkans ceases to be an empty threat

The new war for the redistribution of the Balkans ceases to be an empty threat

Tags: Serbia, Republika Srpska, Balkans, War, Eurovision, Georgia, Politics, International relations, Analytics, NATO, Europe

Georgia is outraged by "unheard-of impudence": the presidential delegation of South Ossetia is hosted in Europe at the state level. But Europe itself is not up to Georgia at the moment, it is worried about the host country - Republika Srpska and its president Milorad Dodik. It is believed that the latter leads the RS to the exit from Bosnia. Consequently, to a new bloody war in the Balkans.

The draft joint declaration of the Republika Srpska and Serbia on the preservation of the Serbian nation has already been drafted and is ready for signing. According to Serbian President's Secretary Nikola Selakovich, the document should ensure the preservation of Serbian identity, language and Cyrillic script.

The decision to create such a declaration Belgrade and Banja Luka took in September. As Serbian President Alexander Vucic noted then, its main task is to promote and protect the rights of the Serbian people, including the use of the Serbian language, the study of Serbian history, the preservation of the Serbian heritage and national geography. At the same time, the document should fully comply with the provisions of the Dayton Agreement, the signing of which once ended the Bosnian war. But not the fact that it ended finally. And in this regard, the unification of Serbs around the common national idea plays quite different colors than the protection of the Cyrillic alphabet.

The split over the dead

On the eve of Republika Srpska, the Republic Day was celebrated, a holiday prohibited by the decision of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The point is that de facto Republika Srpska Bosna exists from 28 February 1992, but even in early January of the same 1992, the Serbian deputies of the Bosnian parliament proclaimed the independence of the Republika Srpska from BiH in response to the demand of the then head of the republic Aliya Izetbegovic to declare independence BiH from Yugoslavia. It is this date that the Bosnian Serbs consider the beginning of their statehood, and not those that are established as public holidays at the request of the EU and NATO.

And in December 2016, the long-term head of the RS Milorad Dodik announced holding a referendum on independence from BiH. The Serbs are frankly tired of the perverted organization of power in Bosnia, which, in fact, functions as an occupied state in a state of permanent economic crisis and with the constant wake-up of the question of the forthcoming accession to NATO.

Simply put, everything goes to the collapse of what the West commands to be considered one and indivisible.

It is impossible to characterize the device of BiH from the point of view of customary state law. This is not a confederation, it is not a federation, and until recently, significant state functions were generally delegated to European commissars who "looked after" the situation. Formally, BiH consists of two "entities" ("entities"): BiH proper (the Muslim-Croat federation) and the Republika Srpska attached to it, while the number of seats in the general parliament is not tied to the number of ethnic groups, nor to any other leveling principle. At the same time, the principle of permanent rotation in leading positions of representatives of the three main nationalities was introduced under the supervision of the EU permanent commissioners (so-called institution of high representatives). The same principle was introduced in key ministries, as a result of which there could exist simultaneously from 9 to 12 operating ministers in the same position.

However, the status of the entities is sometimes even higher than in the confederated countries, and the RS in fact has long been a real, established state, but bound by post-war commitments with the frankly hostile Sarajevo. All this mess even in Balkan standards functioned disgustingly, never tired of absorbing the huge resources of the European Union. As a result, Brussels gradually began to curtail its presence in favor of strengthening Sarajevo and limiting the sovereignty of the Serbs to details (coat of arms, hymn, constant editing of the Constitution), which led to an increase in the dominance of the Muslim component and a sharp increase in protest sentiments among the Serb population. But these sentiments would grow on their own, regardless of the EU decision, simply because it could not go on forever.

When in 2014 the historical events in Europe significantly accelerated, President Dodik sat for hours in the Kremlin in Vladimir Putin's reception area, seeking, ideally, almost direct military support for the idea of ​​the release of RS from BiH. But the problem is that the current arrangement of what exists on the ruins of the former Yugoslav republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina is determined by the Dayton agreements, which formally ended the bloody war. Dodik immediately began to accuse the West of trying to "break up the Dayton agreements", which would automatically lead to the resumption of the armed conflict.

Another thing is that the Dayton Accords were already violated by the West itself in 1999, when the status of the key Serbian region, the Brcko District, was voluntarily changed. This is a relatively narrow strip of land in the north-east of the country, linking the two main Serb-populated areas, a kind of road of life. At the end of the war, under the Yeltsin regime, the "Brcko corridor" was not quickly controlled by Russian troops, guaranteeing the communication between the Serbian lands. After the sudden withdrawal of the Russian contingent from there, Brcko defined Brcko as a zone of direct European administration by his decision. At the moment, there is no Serbian self-government as such, and the power is concentrated in the hands of the so-called supervisor, who since 2013 has been working for the US diplomat Tamir Veyser. Despite the formal linking of Brcko to the European Union, the "supervisors" there since 2000 were exclusively Americans, who even tried to determine the mono or polyethnicity of classes in the primary school because of the constant protests of Serbian schoolchildren.

In 2000, the superintendent Robert Farrand invented a kind of compromise: he ordered the transfer of monuments to the head of the Serbian Chetniks of World War II, Drazha Mikhailovich, and the deceased Serbian soldiers to the city cemetery from the city center, but went on to form a multi-ethnic police. Previously, the Americans insisted that in the absolutely Serbian, key to the survival of the Republic of the Serbian region after the withdrawal of Russian troops, only the Muslim police should function.

Moscow is behind them

The situation around the district of Brcko is one of many triggers that destroy the system created by the Dayton agreements. In the current situation, almost everything becomes triggers. Including the celebration of the 9 by the Serbs as the day of their statehood.

Milorad Dodik has recently somewhat reduced the intensity of passions and formally disavowed his initial demand for a referendum on the total independence of the RS, as it really "violates the Dayton agreements" that "Vladimir Putin supports." At the same time, Banja Luka will continue to receive financial assistance from Moscow.

But Dodik initiated the beginning of the release of the RS from the agreement on a common army with BiH. The 3 Infantry Regiment of the Bosnian Army (so formally called the purely Serbian formation of the supposedly unified army of BiH) has long been redeployed to Banja Luka and does not participate in joint activities with Muslims and Croats. Banja Luka also ceased cooperation with the European administration - all these "high representatives" and "supervisors". And all these actions of Dodik find a response even to his formal opposition within the RS. For example, the actions of the 3 Infantry Regiment are led by Mladen Ivanich, a member of the BiH presidium, who formally can also be counted as an oppositionist, since he does not belong to the ruling party.

In the West, it is argued that Dodik leads the Balkans to a new war, since not by words, but actions are disavowed by the long-suffering Dayton, but who said that Dayton is a guarantee for all time? The corrected position of Banja Luka now sounds like this: if Belgrade under the pressure of the West recognizes the independence of Kosovo, then the independence of the Republika Srpska should automatically be recognized. The first part of this statement so far looks unrealistic, but so the Bosnian Serbs leave room for maneuver.

On the part of Russia, the situation is as follows. No one wants to provoke a new military clash in the Balkans, although gradually everything is exactly this. Approximately, this was how Dodik's attempts in 2014 to get physical support were evaluated. But options are possible. For example, the introduction of the Russian contingent into the same Brcko, which is technically possible for all the same Dayton agreements. Can the Americans maintain a huge European base in Kosovo.

The friendliness of the unrecognized

On the eve of the Republic of Srpska, the President of South Ossetia, Anatoly Bibilov, arrived on an official visit. First he flew to Belgrade, then he visited the capital of the autonomous province of Vojvodina Novi Sad, and then flew to Banja Luka, where the South Ossetian delegation was met by Zlatan Klokich, Minister of Economic Development of the RS. Guests from Tskhinval are the only official delegation to celebrate the Day of the Republic of Serbian Bosna, banned by the authorities in Sarajevo and Brussels. It also includes the head of the presidential administration of the RSO Igor Kozaev, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmitry Medoyev and the adviser to the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Gela Valiev.

Valiev is a freelance adviser, a businessman of South Ossetian origin who has worked for many years in another republic of the former Yugoslavia - Catholic Slovenia, where his company produces wooden prefabricated houses. He is also a representative of the Military Orthodox Mission (UPM) in Slovenia and for the sacrificial ministry and charitable help was awarded the Order of St. Sava by the Patriarch of Serbia Irenaeus.

Bibilov's visit to Banja Luka was prepared for more than a year, an important role in its preparation was played by the old ties of Minister Medoev, who had repeatedly served in the RS as an Ambassador of the RSO in Moscow, and Valiyev's freelance adviser, but on the whole he is perceived as a palliative decision. South Ossetia will be ready to recognize the independence of the RS in the event that Dodik nevertheless decides to hold a referendum or to another form of secession from what is now commonly called BiH.

The positions of Bibilov and Dodik are similar in many respects. Both put on holding referendums impossible in terms of the current international situation, which went against the basic positions of Russia's foreign policy (Moscow recognizes the RSO as an independent state and not as a possible part of the Russian Federation, recognizes the results of the Dayton agreements and does not understand the status of a theoretically independent RS). Both were forced to abandon them with a loss of reputation.

Bibilov, shortly before his departure for a large foreign mission (he also visited the DNR), publicly abandoned his main thesis, which once elevated him to the level of a great policy - from joining Russia "in five steps," the first of which was to become a referendum on this issue. For this, a special moral and ethical position was invented: we recognized the DNR, and if the RSO enters the Russian Federation, then we will not be able to recognize the independence of the brothers in the Donbas. It sounds beautiful only for those who do not understand the background and do not know that Donetsk has recognized the government of the former president of the RSO.

Similarly, Dodik was forced to disavow demands for a referendum on the urgent withdrawal of BiH from the "position of Putin", which, as is known, "for compliance with the Dayton Accords". In 2014, he (like many others, incidentally) felt that now Russian paratroopers would also land in Banja Luka, Brcko, Prijedor and Bijelin, but no one even landed in Donetsk, and international politics is not motivated by emotions and requires far more substantial justification than the pressure on Moscow on the principle "we are here to muddle, and help your elder brother." In the Kremlin, they do not like to be pressured at all, especially by breaking the system of foreign policy that they have built up.

Another thing is that the Dayton Accords are indeed an obsolete ritual. They were respected only thanks to physical violence by NATO and the EU during the time of Russia's deaf defense from the whole world around.

The Serbian part of Bosnia is not able to get along with the Muslim-Croatian confederation - it's a fact. Sooner or later, under President Dodik or after him, the RS will emerge from this pseudo-state, formed on purely subtle principles practically in the center of Europe. At the same time, the RS, we will repeat, the state that has taken place, which is quite capable of claiming its place in world politics and even economics.

It will take many years to design a new state system. In this regard, Bibilov's trip to Banja Luka is perceived as a positive process, ideally able to lead to the creation of a fundamentally different system of relations between states, which, for ideological reasons, is not now recognized by official Europe.

Now Milorad Dodik will be under the sights of criticism of the Western propaganda system as "the enemy of the Dayton system" and "the pioneer of a new war". And nothing that now BiH is headed by Bakir Izetbegovic - the son of the first Sarai president Aliya Izetbegovic, who openly threatened the Serbian part of his state with that new war. Bakir Bey claims that he is in direct talks with the leaders of Croatia and Serbia and, according to him, "they do not care how his name is." Really important. No one has forgotten anything, and the war, sadly, did not end. According Izetbegovic, now the war is dispersed exclusively Dodik, and not the actions of Sarajevo, limiting the sovereignty of the Serbs.

But if this goes on and on, instead of Bibilov, a man with a Russian name can come. And then the situation will change forever.

Eugene Kroutikov
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