After the recent increase by President Donald Trump of the US military contingent in Afghanistan, former US presidential candidate Congressman Ron Paul made a prophecy: the Afghan war will lead to the fall of the American empire. There is a kind of rational grain in this: the war in Afghanistan preceded the collapse of the Soviet empire, and earlier the British empire suffered defeat there.
Afghanistan is just some gravedigger of empires! This mountainous, inaccessible country with a mixed population, almost with medieval relations, first becomes, as it were, an easy prey for all conquerors, and then their grave. Why?
After another conquest of Afghanistan, it becomes an apple of discord among world powers. That's why the US Afghanistan? From this site, it is possible to simultaneously threaten Russia, China, India, and Iran - just a universal military site of pan-Asian significance. But then all these countries become opponents of the United States in Afghanistan, and then everywhere.
Today, the United States in Afghanistan risks falling into the cauldron. There are two main transit routes to this country: the southern one through Pakistan and the north through Russia. Western transit through Georgia - Azerbaijan - Central Asia is too burdensome, and vulnerable to sabotage. During the active phase of the invasion of Afghanistan, the United States used both the southern and northern routes: Moscow supported this American march to the empire cemetery.
Today, Moscow urged the US to withdraw from Afghanistan, after which US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson accused Russia of supplying weapons to the Afghan Taliban. Russia's position on Afghanistan has clearly changed, there will be no more northern transit for the Americans, especially since the Congress was marked by anti-Russian sanctions, and in Ukraine with the Americans there is a sharp confrontation.
If Pakistan closes the southern transit, the US contingent in Afghanistan will be in the cauldron! The supply is possible only by air, as the army of Paulus at Stalingrad! Therefore, after making a known scandalous statement about Pakistan, accusing him of terrorism, Trump bit his tongue, or the Pentagon bit his tongue. Asked how Trump thinks to supply the military contingent in Afghanistan?
Trump also threatened to withdraw from the nuclear deal on Iran, and again someone bit his tongue, most likely the Pentagon. Iran borders on Afghanistan, and can create additional difficulties for the American contingent. But the main thing, it seems, in the other.
In his scandalous statement, Donald Trump simultaneously declared both Iran and Pakistan as sponsors of terrorism in the region, as if pushing them to cooperate, which is unlikely. Then this Trump passage is simply a reaction to the already formed political axis of Iran-Pakistan. It clearly manifested itself in the events around Qatar, when both these countries came forward, and very quickly, with a united front: they supported Qatar against Saudi Arabia. Which, of course, is not accidental.
All this is very serious, since Iran has missile technology, and Pakistan is a nuclear power, that is, their military capabilities complement each other. It is known that North Korea cooperates in the military field with Iran, and now gives an example to all, how it is possible to conduct business with the United States. That is, the axis Iran - Pakistan - North Korea is also possible.
Thus, by touching any of these countries, the United States risks causing an anti-American collapse from North Korea to Iran. The mad dog Mattis will run from North Korea, through Afghanistan and Pakistan to Iran, and back. If Pakistan closes the southern transit, the Afghan contingent of the United States will be in the cauldron.
In general, Afghanistan is, as it were, a marker that speaks of the aspirations of world powers. If the US clings to Afghanistan, despite the huge costs and the absence of any visible prospects, then they have not parted with the idea of world domination, and are willing to pay only for the presence on the Afghan geopolitical platform. However, the situation of the US military contingent in Afghanistan is deteriorating, and it is hanging on the Pakistani transit.
When the US leaves Afghanistan, it will be the de facto fall of the American empire, the farewell of the US to the policy of world domination, which Congressman Ron Paul foresees. If a "big deal" between Russia and the US is possible at all, it will be in Afghanistan. Moscow can help Washington retain its face, for example, in exchange for surrendering their positions in Ukraine.