The news of the creation by the Americans of the "army to protect the borders of Syria" from the Kurds and Bedouins took both Damascus and Ankara to bayonets. But if the government of Assad has nowhere to hurry, the Turks set their sights on a major military operation. Eventually this strange idea threatens to be a trap for Trump, as it is doomed to failure.
In the Syrian Foreign Ministry, the US intention to form armed militia groups on the north-eastern border of the country was described as "a flagrant aggression against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria" and "an outrageous violation of international law", called upon the international community to put an end to the "arrogant and hegemonic policy of the United States administration."
The desire of the Americans to create from the Kurds and some Arab tribes of the Euphrates Valley some "army to protect the borders of Syria" caused a response reaction of hatred and hatred quite naturally. In spite of the fact that all this has not grown to this day, and 250 Kurds, who supposedly have already passed some "first stage of preparation", do not count.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not promise to destroy this "border defense army". In Ankara, everything connected with the Kurdish Workers' Party and the Kurds in general, causes outbursts of rage. The Turkish news agency Haberturk, citing sources in the military circles, already reported that the army allegedly planned 149 (why not 150?) Targets in the Kurdish settlements of Afrin and Manbij.
The Turks have tried several times to discourage the Kurds from Afrin, but the pre-announced military actions in Syria have been constantly frustrated. The Turkish army was simply not ready for such operations, and serious losses among the advanced units crossing the border forced the General Staff to reconsider its approach to the tactics of pressure on the Kurds. Now the operation will take no more than six days (why not a week?), And it will be conducted in the regime of terrorizing strikes of artillery and aviation from a long distance.
In this context, the Turks particularly angry about the possible appearance of Kurds of MANPADS of American origin. Such gestures in Ankara are perceived almost as a personal insult. Turkish-Kurdish relations are in principle one of the dead ends of civilization, and now the USA is completely in vain swaying the situation. Turkish sources have already reported the movement of a certain column of Turkish armored vehicles to the border with Syria under Afrin.
On the one hand, the American plan is very similar to the previous attempts of the Pentagon and Langley to artificially create allies for themselves. And it does not matter who specifically at the same time will develop resources - the military or the CIA. Over the past four years, we have seen several such desert golems of American production - from the actual IGIL * to the "moderate opposition". As it was spent unaccountable money and what came of it in the end, we also remember. And if every first Bedouin managed to round the CIA operatives around his finger, get weapons and some money, and then go with it to the desert, it's hard to even imagine what the more cunning and quirky Kurds will do to the tserushniki.
They only seem at first glance to be rough-hewn mountaineers, still living in the 12th century, corrected for socialism. They have a clear goal, which they have been going slowly since this XII century - an independent Kurdistan. This goal was overshadowed by Muslims, Crusaders, Armenians, Persians, Turks, British, Turks, oil and oil, and Atatürk, and the Baath Party, and again - Turks, Turks, Turks, the Turks. Accordingly, allies of the Kurds can be situationally all who oppose the current main pest.
Geographically, the northeast of Syria, where the Americans plan to create a new focus of Kurdistan, is now divorced from the army in operation. There was only a small city garrison, who lived all the years of the war surrounded by the fraternal Kurdish people, nervously waiting for the wind to blow. Even now the government army is not up to the Kurds: Damascus will not get involved in this strange military-political orgy in the face of a shortage of forces, even for the main fronts. The government of Assad is much easier to agree with the Kurds on the conditions of peaceful coexistence, which is well understood everywhere except Ankara. Therefore, the Turkish side is frantically fighting against the participation of Kurdish representatives in the Astana talks and on some other platform. And then there are these Yankees with their "border guard".
At the same time, Damascus does not need to be artificially pushed to such negotiations. Therefore, it seems strange that the separatism of Kurds, encouraged by the Americans, is beneficial in terms of accelerating the intra-Syrian peace dialogue, while the American army itself and certain "mobile groups" are the main guarantor of the territorial integrity of Syria in the north-east, as it hinders Ankara's attempts to seize this zone. It's a bullshit. Nothing Ankara will not keep, if it reins in the tail. And American "mobile groups", as a rule, are an object of ridicule, and no one has long been afraid to shoot an American just because he is an American. The experience of Mali confirms this.
It is noteworthy that this point of view is expressed by those same experts who have recently agreed to the slogan "Bashar must go away!" From so-called general democratic considerations. Like, Assad is a bloody tyrant, and "moderate opposition", when he comes to power, will hold "free elections" under the control of progressors from Washington, after which there will come liberal Arab happiness. Now this position is no longer relevant, but it still, as we see, can be slightly adjusted.
All these golems are created not in the Prague cemetery, but in Langley, Virginia, therefore, the quality is much worse for them. So far, in an open battle, no US military unit trained in any country in the world has shown even the average level of infantry training. Another thing is that no one in the Middle East refused to give free help. Weapons do not happen a lot, once again, practice too, does not hurt.
Kurds are prone to financially profitable trade-offs, which was recently demonstrated in Erbil and Kirkuk. And now they are creating a reserve for future negotiations, or rather, trade with Damascus. Yes, they go beyond their tribal range to scream loud slogans, and swing machine guns in front of TV cameras. But there is an indisputable truth: the louder someone sings, dancing and waving the gun in front of TV cameras, the less he has the desire to really fight.
By the way, attempts to draw not only the Kurds but also the Bedouin tribes in the war, who did not participate in the war and who watched the camels for five years without fail, testify to the fact that non-Kurdish territories need somehow to be fastened to a new structure. Otherwise, in the future negotiations, the element of the eastern trade will be lost, because the subject of exchange can be precisely the non-Kurdish lands with the Arab population. And with a certain desire, the same Kurds can squeeze out Americans from their own territory - and they will not even punch in response.
All this in any case will end with an internal investigation and the Senate Commission, as in the case of financing, arming and training the "moderate opposition". In the end, only Donald Trump will have to answer.
But there is an extremely unpleasant side to this whole undertaking. Americans successfully manage to drive any local war into a dead end for many years. At the same time, they operate by any means and methods: the support of one of the parties (Ukraine), the support of both sides at the same time (the Iran-Iraq war), support from the ceiling of the savages (Libya) taken, examples can not be counted. And, having entered such a simple way to Kurdistan, Washington can permanently fix the intra-Syrian conflict in an irresolvable phase. If the physical presence of American troops in Syria is impossible and even fraught, why not try to create another golem.
But with the Kurds this focus may not pass, especially in the situation when against them practically the whole world around. Even seemingly humble Iraq - and that complex in the face of the revival of Kurdish separatism, not to mention much more nervous Turks. So the whole story will not end well anyway.
* Organization, in respect of which the court accepted an inured decision on liquidation or prohibition of the activity on the grounds provided the Federal Law "On Countering Extremist Activity"