Today in 0.00 came into effect in May 4 2017 signed in the capital of Kazakhstan, representatives of the majority of anti-government military groups and representatives of official Damascus with the mediation of Russia, Turkey and Iran ... in fact Memorandum truce. According to him in the country it is formed of four security zones, the war that will stop temporarily. How temporarily? Let's think.
Early on in the Syrian campaign, when only the first bombs fell on the Russian VKS "moderate terrorists' heads, the author has made an overall strategic outlook of the Russian Syrian campaign, which he leads as follows:
As you can see, though not as fast as we would like, but as long as there is on the plan. Militants in Syria and the Syrian force of Russian arms divided into two parts. The first of them was able to sit down fighting against LIH to the negotiating table, and they are now under Turkish auspices.
Russia, despite the US and provoking resistance (the most important of which was the destruction of a Turkish fighter jet of the Russian Su-24) managed to withstand a total diplomatic and military campaign line. 4 May 2017 years we have seen how the next stage of the plan worked and it was time to move on. How can the development of the situation in Syria, more ...
interests of the parties
So why it has now become possible to conclude "Syrian Minsk". It's very simple, converged political star in the sky. As we saw above, Syria and Russia sought to this for a long time, and the "opposition" today do not see any alternative. They have suffered a number of severe blow, all their "counter-offensive" repulsed, and they thus suffered considerable losses and they need time to catch his breath.
A complete analogy with the "Ukrainian Minsk", which Kyiv concluded with the prospect of a total military defeat.
It is obvious that at the first stage it will generally be respected. Russia and Syria does not make sense to break the truce, since they urgently need to apply a concentrated blow to LIH. The fact is that the troops under the control of the United States took the opportunity to have been able to cross the Euphrates and take those areas that are vital to the official Damascus.
And if all goes further because it is, that Assad's position on the end of the war with LIH will look less convincing. Today more than ever need a cast of Damascus to the east.
Also, until a truce favorable and the Syrian "opposition". Government army made her bloodletting in the north of the province of Hama.
To regroup and save up strength they need a month or two at least. All this time, they will be "generally respected the truce," and then everything will depend on many factors, the effect of which has not yet been determined. What are the factors.
When will a new war
Most important, it is the United States. They are not included in the peace, "Syrian Minsk process" and they have plenty of opportunities to stop him. if they choose to do so depends on the outcome of the Washington talks with Moscow and Ankara. It is obvious that the current political movement on the Middle East, they are not very happy (particularly perspectives) and they will make for the peace process "all they can." In general, the sticks in the wheels of them can be expected in large numbers.
And then there are the factors of Israel and Saudi Arabia. They do not like to chart a new triumvirate of the Middle East (Russia, Turkey, Iran) and they will do everything to break.
Based on the above, I think that the Syrian "Minsk-1» is waiting for the fate of Ukrainian Minsk-1. As soon as one of the parties considers it as unacceptable, she had broken. But this will not happen immediately, but after some time, which should be used sensibly.