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16.11.2017

The period of disintegration: who will the EU lose first

German Spiegel, positioning itself as "the most important magazine in Germany and Europe with the largest circulation," published a funny article Denken auf Vorrat. It states that some Bundeswehr analysts have provided the country's leadership with a secret document that looks at options for the future of the EU. All scenarios are pessimistic and ultimately lead to a more or less rapid and complete collapse of the European Union with unpredictable military and political consequences for Germany.

First, the very fact of the appearance of such an article in Spiegel is interesting. Not only ten, but also five years ago in Russia, few people were ready to publicly discuss the probability of disintegration of the European Union. Despite the fact that even then there were clear signs of European unhappiness, from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the opinion prevailed that nothing bad with the EU can not happen - so, a slight malaise, after which it will be even healthier. Today, the hypothesis of the collapse of the EU does not hesitate to seriously discuss one of the most respected publications.

Secondly, Spiegel refers to a secret document. Of course, journalists do not publish it, but argue that it exists. The government of Germany could refute the existence of such a document and initiate an investigation into the leak of information of a strategic nature. But it is silent, indirectly confirming the authenticity of the publication.

Let's imagine for a moment that "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" would publish an article detailing the contents of the secret document sent by the General Staff to the government, and in the Kremlin would pretend that nothing happened. This is roughly the case with the article in the German journal, if you transfer it to Russian realities. This is nonsense. However, only if the information leak is not deliberately organized.

Why should the government of the Federal Republic of Germany pour secret documents into the press? On the thirteenth of November (already after the publication) of the EU's 23 country without the entourage, which is usually accompanied by such events, the "Program for Constant Structured Cooperation" was signed. To begin with, they will jointly develop weapons complexes and military doctrines. The next stage will unite under the general command of the EU the real units of their armed forces.


EU flags at the European Parliament building in Strasbourg

A year ago many Russian experts refused to believe in the possibility of creating a European army. And quite reasonably noted that with NATO, such a structure would be superfluous, saying that the US would not allow this, because it would level out their influence in Europe. Today in Washington the signing of the program is regarded as the beginning of the creation of a European army.

Unlike previous similar attempts by the EU, the current one makes the States nervous. The ocean is even said to be a knife in the back of the North Atlantic alliance.

Note that the Eastern European clients of the United States, who always go on the nose of Washington and conflict on this issue with the "old" Europe, this time without excessive fuss put their signatures in the right places.

Meanwhile, it is clear that if the European army becomes a reality, then the hegemon on the continent will not be the US. The influence of the US will wither with NATO. And their place will be occupied by Germany. Perhaps, together with France. Macron never tires of recalling his claims to European leadership, and without France no European army is possible.

Why did the East Europeans, in fact, without resistance, "surrender" to Berlin? It's simple. Practically in all the variants of the development of events (up to 2040), which are described in the secret document published by Spiegel, the USA inevitably weakens and is unable to maintain the existing world order, while Russia, on the contrary, is strengthening and beginning to exert overwhelming economic influence on the Eastern European periphery of the EU.

A few years ago, such a thesis would not have produced any impression on East European friends of Washington. But today they are confirmed by real practice, and the situation is developing so dynamically that such forecasts can become a reality before 2040 year.

The United States has already lost a clash with Russia in the Middle East. The American coalition (which, by the way, the countries of the European Union are included), in fact, disintegrated. But Russia was able to rally around Turkey, Iran, Syria, tighten up Saudi Arabia, Egypt is friendly toward Moscow (Americans do not trust Cairo generals). Turkish troops guarantee sovereignty (and at the same time, correct behavior) of Qatar.

The States lost the Ukraine. This Eastern Europeans see even better than the American catastrophe in the Middle East, since they themselves are going to share the Ukraine thrown by the Americans (as soon as the Kiev elite finally fills the country).

But the disappearance of Ukraine automatically provides Hungary, Poland and Romania (which are just standing in line for partition) the border with Russia. Further, the choice is not great: you can, as the Balts, for ideological reasons, proudly refuse to trade with Moscow and watch the money pass by. Than it is completed - it is visible on an example of Kiev. And it is possible to cooperate mutually advantageously, providing logistical services. But then small economies will become dependent on the Russian economy - there is no other way, more always attracts less. Given that the EU is not in a position to provide financial support to the countries of Eastern Europe since 2020 a year, the opportunity to earn, cooperating with Russia, will equal the opportunity to survive.


International checkpoint across the Ukrainian-Polish border "Ugrinov-Dolgobitschou"

Since economic influence entails political as well as Eastern European elites based on the ideology of Russophobia and can not hold fast to power without its exploitation, they view the common border with Russia in the long term and the likely economic dependence on Moscow as not as a blessing, but as threat. If the weakening of the US can not neutralize this threat, then the attempt to dive under the wing of the European army, staking out its belonging to the Franco-German sphere of influence, Eastern Europeans consider as the only acceptable way out of the situation.
Germany, at last, receives the desired military-political influence in Europe. Do not be surprised if between 2020 and 2030 years Berlin will raise the issue of removing from it the military and political restrictions imposed on the outcome of the Second World War.

In any case, the Great Britain is leaving the EU, holding back the German aspiration for military and political domination in Europe. The states to date are not capable of carrying out an active policy in Europe. This is not the Washington, which at the beginning of 1990 reacted lightly to the attempt of Helmut Kohl to play an independent game in the Balkans and quickly ousted Germany from the region. The current administration has neither the resources nor the political will to do so. Anything that does not eat up a meaningless confrontation with North Korea goes to the internal political struggle, where the split in the elites that emerged after the election of Trump can not be overcome.


Participants in the protest action against Brexit in masks, stylized under the flag of the European Union, in London

For the first time in several centuries, Europe remains without Anglo-Saxon care. And immediately out of nothingness the Franco-German domination revives (with the unconditional Germanic priority).

The Europeans intend to overcome the internal crisis by consolidating the military-political and financial-economic leaders and redistributing the resources of the Eastern European periphery in their favor.
This will not solve the problems of the EU, but can give a little delay. Apparently, for her in the hands of Spiegel and got the secret document of the Bundeswehr.

A source: RIA News

Author: Rostislav Ishchenko

Tags: Europe, EU, Media, Politics, Analytics, Army, NATO, Germany, USA