In the elections in France, won by a woman - Merkel. Overview of the blogosphere.
At this time pollsters do not make a mistake - in the presidential elections in France defeated Emmanuel Macron with 66% of votes Marin Le Pen came second with 34% of the vote. On the one hand, of course, is the leader of the "National Front" defeat. On the other hand - a victory, since 2002 year when the father of the current leader of the "Natsfronta" Jean-Marie Le Pen with slogans strong France went into the second round with Jacques Chirac, a supporter of a united Europe, he scored only 17% of votes, and Chirac - more than 80%. Thus, over the past years 15 Marine Le Pen twice improved the result of his father.
Moreover, what is more important, Le Pen, first, overcame the threshold of 10 million votes of the French, and secondly, she took the young electorate almost half of the voters at the age of 25-49. And this is a victory, since the "National Front" has become quite legitimate and recognizable party, and in the forthcoming parliamentary elections, which will be held in June 2017, he is already counting on 2 seats, as now, but on 40 deputy mandates. This speaks not only of a serious amendment of French voters, which is evidence of the deterioration of the lives of ordinary French and the dominance of migrants. Much more is said about the other.
First, France is increasingly sliding into the category of regional powers. And after de Gaulle this process goes on without stopping. The victory of Macron is an additional confirmation of the fact that France is degrading. Quite rightly notes the blogger chervonec: "What a historic path the French have been having since the times of de Gaulle and the presidents of the 20 century in modern history: Sarkozy surrendered France to the Americans, returning it to NATO, Hollande surrendered France to the Germans, in all the arrangements for Merkel, Macron promised to surrender France to Brussels, in all fixing the EU bureaucracy. In France came the power of the analogue of the Naval protege Rothschild. France itself has ruled out serious players. "
Second, the ratio of votes between the first and second place shows that France is becoming a divided state. And if now all the party establishment united against one Marine Le Pen, then it will not be in the parliamentary elections - will each man for himself. And after them Makron rating will begin to fall as happened similarly rated Fransua Ollanda immediately after the election, a copy of which is Teflon elections became Macron.
Moreover, only 36% of French voters voted for Macron, that is, he is the president of the minority: "Following the election of 7 May, Emanuel Macron defeated Marin Le Pen with a margin of 32% - 66% vs. 34%. However, taking into account the non-voting (40% did not vote and 9% of ballots were spoiled - BakuToday) the electoral mathematics looks quite different. The ratio 60 / 40 to 50% of voters means that at 100% of the French, Macron received only 36% of the population support - lower than Hollande's (51,6% - 2012 year) and Sarkozy (53% - 2007 year). Consequently, Macron is the president of the civil minority, because 64% did not vote for him. This electoral failure will manifest itself at the forthcoming parliamentary elections in June, when the parties will once again remind about their programs. And here there is a chance for revenge Marin Le Pen, in which the votes were stolen from political technology. "
An interesting interpretation of the election results in France offers Mikhail Khazin, who sees in the Macron British project aimed at easing Merkel and Germany's role. He suggests that we may now be witnessing a repeat scenario of the XIX century, when France joined the British zone of influence and throughout 100 years continuously at war with Germany, which tried to consolidate Western Europe:
"Such a scenario assumes a rapid destruction of the European Union with all its institutions and mechanisms for the protection of the domestic market, which will allow Britain, largely offset brekzit. And maybe even get a larger share of the market for individual countries of Western Europe. But this scenario requires its own Napoleon III, who is to head to France and to implement the scenario described, you have to put the country under Britain. For this reason, a candidate for the post of Napoleon III to be quite specific character.
First of all, it must be painfully ambitious and well managed. It is desirable to hint at a non-traditional orientation (very well accepted by the liberal public) and a "correct" liberal history, for the consolidation of the respective electorate. But at the same time his rhetoric should be maximally populist and "eurocentric", even the thought that his plans may not be the same as others. Yes, he must also be young and do not belong clearly to the establishment, which causes people's disgust and hatred. And belonging to the banking world should be maximally obscured. This is a direct portrait of Macron.
Well, now the question is: what will Macron do? And he will put pressure on Merkel, that she does not sufficiently protect the integrity and interests of the EU! And to do this quickly, so as to complicate its position as much as possible in the autumn elections. Investing in the EU under the current circumstances before the election, Merkel can not promise - which will inevitably worsen her relations with Brussels. And Macron will build himself a "saving angel" for the EU, propose different plans that can not be realized without Germany and drive the wedge between Brussels and Berlin as much as possible. And, taking into account the objective situation, this will be very effective for him.
In general, if Le Pen, becoming president of France, would create a "core" of Western Europe as a union of France and Germany, which have ruled the other countries directly, without mediation Bryuselya, that Macron will destroy the relations between Germany and France (with a gradual withdrawal of the latter under the patronage of Britain) under the pretext of preserving the common European unity and to protect the interests of "small" EU member states. And it is possible that he demolish the EU faster than it would have made Le Pen. "
In my opinion, this version confirms our February's suggestion ( "A New Entente Goes to War: Why Germany creates EU-2?») That Britain is creating a new Entente. And it is very interesting and necessary signal for Germany, as in this case scenario, it remains alone in addressing problems not only in Europe, but, importantly, and Ukrainian. Accordingly, until the new Entente not squeezed her into a corner, it is necessary to negotiate with Russia, since only cooperation with Moscow could protect her from the worst case scenario.
According to experts, a variant of cooperation with Macron Merkel does not promise anything good, "Macron, of course, will have somewhere to manifest itself in the international arena and" Norman format "will be presented such an opportunity (as represented him and Hollande) for him. But we all know the role of the President of France paired with Angela Merkel during these negotiations. It is difficult to imagine that a young politician could play a greater role in this pair in the future. "
At the same time, it must be emphasized that France is a copy of Europe in miniature. The results of the elections in France indicate that Europe is also divided. And there was no such division in it for a long time. In fact, since the days of powerful socialist movements and parties in Western Europe in the 60-70 years of the last century, which the United States and Britain were able to destroy only with the help of the Gladio terrorist system. In the conditions of a divided society, it is very difficult for a president to be strong, especially in the midst of an economic crisis and a loss of his foreign political authority. Where and to whom Macron leans against will show the very near future.