In the elections in France, won by a woman - Merkel. Overview of the blogosphere.
At this time pollsters do not make a mistake - in the presidential elections in France defeated Emmanuel Macron with 66% of votes Marin Le Pen came second with 34% of the vote. On the one hand, of course, is the leader of the "National Front" defeat. On the other hand - a victory, since 2002 year when the father of the current leader of the "Natsfronta" Jean-Marie Le Pen with slogans strong France went into the second round with Jacques Chirac, a supporter of a united Europe, he scored only 17% of votes, and Chirac - more than 80%. Thus, over the past years 15 Marine Le Pen twice improved the result of his father.
Moreover, more importantly, Le Pen in the first place, overcame the barrier of 10 million. French votes, and secondly, she took the young electorate of almost half of voters in the age of 25-49 years. And it is a victory, as "National Front" was quite legitimate and recognized party, and the upcoming parliamentary elections to be held in June, 2017 years, he was counting on not 2 place, as now, but on 40 seats. It speaks not only of a serious rightward French voters, which is evidence of deterioration in the lives of ordinary Frenchmen and the dominance of migrants. Much more is said about the other.
Firstly, France increasingly slipping into the category of regional powers. After de Gaulle, this process is non-stop. Winning Makron more proof of the fact that France is degraded. Rightly notes blogger chervonec: «What is the historical way passed the French since the days of de Gaulle and Presidents 20-century in modern history: Sarkozy handed over France to the Americans, returning it to NATO, Hollande surrendered France to the Germans, around placate under Merkel, Macron has promised to hand over France Brussels, around to fix the EU bureaucracy. In France, he came to power analogue Navalny protege Rothschild. France itself excluded from the major players. "
Second, the ratio of votes between the first and second place shows that France is becoming a divided state. And if now all the party establishment united against one Marine Le Pen, then it will not be in the parliamentary elections - will each man for himself. And after them Makron rating will begin to fall as happened similarly rated Fransua Ollanda immediately after the election, a copy of which is Teflon elections became Macron.
The more so for Makron voted only 36% of French voters, that is, he is president of the minority: "Following the election in May 7 Emmanuel Macron beat Marine Le Pen with a margin of 32% - 66% against 34%. However, given the non-voters (40% did not vote and 9% of ballots were spoiled - IA REGNUM) electoral math looks quite different. The ratio of 60 / 40 to 50% of voters gave their vote means that 100% of the French Macron has received the support of only 36% of the population - lower than that of Hollande (51,6% - 2012) and Sarkozy (53% - 2007 year). Consequently, Macron - a civilian president minority, because 64% did not vote for him. This electoral failure will appear in the upcoming parliamentary elections in June, when the parties reiterated their programs. And there is a chance for revenge Marin Le Pen, whose voice was stolen at the expense of political technologies. "
An interesting interpretation of the election results in France offers Mikhail Khazin, who sees in the Macron British project aimed at easing Merkel and Germany's role. He suggests that we may now be witnessing a repeat scenario of the XIX century, when France joined the British zone of influence and throughout 100 years continuously at war with Germany, which tried to consolidate Western Europe:
"Such a scenario assumes a rapid destruction of the European Union with all its institutions and mechanisms for the protection of the domestic market, which will allow Britain, largely offset brekzit. And maybe even get a larger share of the market for individual countries of Western Europe. But this scenario requires its own Napoleon III, who is to head to France and to implement the scenario described, you have to put the country under Britain. For this reason, a candidate for the post of Napoleon III to be quite specific character.
First of all, it should be painfully ambitious and well-managed. It is desirable hints of netraditsinnuyu orientation (very well accepted liberal public) and "right" liberal history, for the consolidation of the relevant electorate. But this rhetoric it should be as populist and "Eurocentric," even thought about what his plans might be different should not break. Yes, even he must be young and do not belong explicitly establishment that makes people disgust and hatred. A world bank affiliation should be as obscured. This directly portrait Makron.
Well, now the question is: what Macron will do? And it will put pressure on Merkel, that it is not enough to protect the integrity and interests of the EU! And to do so quickly in order to complicate its position in the fall elections. To invest resources in the EU in the current environment before the elections, Merkel's promise can not - that will inevitably worsen its relations with Brussels. A Macron will build itself from the EU "savior angel," to offer different plans that can not be realized without Germany and as much as possible to drive a wedge between Brussels and Berlin. And, taking into account the objective situation, is it will turn out very effectively.
In general, if Le Pen, becoming president of France, would create a "core" of Western Europe as a union of France and Germany, which have ruled the other countries directly, without mediation Bryuselya, that Macron will destroy the relations between Germany and France (with a gradual withdrawal of the latter under the patronage of Britain) under the pretext of preserving the common European unity and to protect the interests of "small" EU member states. And it is possible that he demolish the EU faster than it would have made Le Pen. "
In my opinion, this version confirms our February's suggestion ( "A New Entente Goes to War: Why Germany creates EU-2?») That Britain is creating a new Entente. And it is very interesting and necessary signal for Germany, as in this case scenario, it remains alone in addressing problems not only in Europe, but, importantly, and Ukrainian. Accordingly, until the new Entente not squeezed her into a corner, it is necessary to negotiate with Russia, since only cooperation with Moscow could protect her from the worst case scenario.
According to experts, a variant of cooperation with Macron Merkel does not promise anything good, "Macron, of course, will have somewhere to manifest itself in the international arena and" Norman format "will be presented such an opportunity (as represented him and Hollande) for him. But we all know the role of the President of France paired with Angela Merkel during these negotiations. It is difficult to imagine that a young politician could play a greater role in this pair in the future. "
At the same time, it must be stressed that France - a copy of Europe in miniature. Results of elections in France say that is divided and Europe. And this division have not had it. In fact, since the powerful socialist movements and parties in Western Europe in 60-70-ies of the last century, that the US and Britain were able to destroy only by the terrorist Gladio system. In a divided society president it is very hard to be strong, especially in the economic crisis and the loss of foreign authority. Where and to whom lean against Macron - will show the near future.