In Warsaw, they boast that President Donald Trump, on his way to the G20 summit, comes to Poland, not to France or Britain. Western media note that on the eve of the G-20 meeting and a conversation with Vladimir Putin Trump wants to play on regional ambitions in Poland. What do they expect to receive in Warsaw and how do they evaluate the Trump's Warsaw voyage in Berlin and Moscow?
The Kremlin is following the visit of US President Donald Trump to Poland, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said.
Trump will arrive in Warsaw on Wednesday evening, a meeting with the Polish leadership is scheduled for Thursday. After that, the US president will go to the G20 summit in Hamburg, within which, in particular, the meeting of Trump and Vladimir Putin is scheduled.
In Warsaw, Trump will take part in the so-called "Three Seas Initiative" summit. The declared theme of the summit is "Integration of the countries of Central Europe between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas".
"Polish officials literally boast that Trump on his way to the G20 summit is coming to Poland, and not to more powerful American allies, such as Germany, France or the United Kingdom," states The New York Times.
"What Trump will say when he leaves Poland has the same significance for the Poles as what he will say when he is in Warsaw himself.
After all, at the G20 meeting in Hamburg, Trump will meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, whose policy is viewed by the Polish government as the main threat to national security, "says Financial Times columnist James Schotter.
What is expected in Warsaw and Washington
On the eve of the American leader's visit to Warsaw, Poland and the US are discussing the possibility of concluding a long-term contract for the supply of American gas. The first test deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have already been implemented, Polish President Andrzej Duda said. According to him, in the terminal of the LNG in the Baltic port of Swinoujscie "everything has come, showing that everything is possible".
In Warsaw, it is believed that the beginning of deliveries of American LNG will significantly strengthen Poland's position in negotiations with Gazprom (the Russian company is the main supplier of this fuel to the country).
The Financial Times recalls: increasing the export of gas to Europe is one of the main priorities of the Trump administration.
Deliveries of American fuel to Europe are an alternative to the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline project. As the FT reminds, this Russian-European project implies deliveries bypassing Poland and Ukraine. Earlier it was noted that new US sanctions had struck a blow to the pipeline project.
Trump's visit on the eve of the G20 summit clearly encouraged Poland not only economically.
The country has every chance to become a member of the G-20, said President Andrzej Duda. Warsaw is trying to act as the leader of Central and Eastern Europe, ready to challenge the primacy of the "old Europe" countries. In the visit of Trump, the Polish authorities see the approval of this line, the Financial Times states.
Trump can play on regional ambitions of Poland, using them in the game with Germany and other "old Europeans", note the American media. According to NYTimes, the May visit of the US president to Europe "greatly upset" Berlin. Angela Merkel believes that at the Hamburg summit G20 difficult negotiations are expected.
"These are political science exercises that we also read," said Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Russian president, commenting on the assumptions that Trump wants to gain influence over Eastern Europeans.
In Berlin, the ambitions of the Poles were skeptical
"The problem with them is that the Poles today live in malfunctions with the old West - with the Germans, with the French," remarked German political scientist Alexander Rahr in a comment to the newspaper VZGLYAD. "In Warsaw they hope to get enough support from Trump in this respect to strengthen their role in Europe."
The Poles have great ambitions, and they would not have refused to get to not only the "twenty", but also the "Seven", remarked Rahr.
But, the expert added, in Warsaw they overestimate the significance of the visit of the US president. Trump all intra-European squabbles and internal conflicts are not interested, he is more interested in solving more global issues. "Therefore, there is no need to expect great results from this visit to Warsaw, except for some symbolic gestures," Rahr believes.
The German political scientist is also skeptical about Poland's intention to become a European gas hub. Rahr recalls: at one time and Russia offered the Poles to become an energy hub. But for political reasons in Warsaw today they want to cling to Americans - even to the detriment of their economy, Rahr said. "The prices for liquefied gas will not decrease so quickly, according to the whole market logic," the source said. So he believes that in the near future the Poles have no chance to realize their gas ambitions.
One of the most reliable gas suppliers in Europe is Germany, analysts say Bloomberg. To date, more than 40% of this fuel is purchased in Russia, therefore, Berlin is not interested in either disrupting the "Nord Stream" project or in the gas "impromptu" of neighboring Poland.
Why does Trump play the "Polish card"
Trump's visit to Poland, first of all, is not so much aimed at reaching an agreement with the Poles, but as an attempt to put another trump card during negotiations with the Russian president, Kirill Koktysh, an associate professor of political theory at MGIMO said. "In the spirit of Trump, create a situation, then sell it for real resources," Koktysh told VZGLYAD.
In this case, the choice of the country is not accidental. According to him, Poland has traditionally been the most pro-American country in the region. Also the conductor of American interests in the EU was primarily the UK, but now London is getting off the European train. "Warsaw claims to represent the American role alone. In this regard, Poland will be required to contain the EU. The US does not need the European Union to become a new German empire. The Poles hope to get a mandate to carry out this mission, "the expert believes.
However, the expert is sure that in return Poland will not receive American funding, as it was in the 90-ies, because "this period has passed." But Poland will be able to make money on that, Koktysh believes, that it will act as a counterbalance to Germany.
In turn, the honorary chairman of the Presidium of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy Sergei Karaganov also believes that Poland needs a counterweight not only against Germany, but also against other major European countries, as the country "was in isolation", completely ruining relations with Russia and a number of others Countries.
"Trump wants to strengthen his position in relations with Germany, which causes the United States growing irritation, because not only severely and openly criticizes the current US, but also claims to be the new Western leader," Sergei Karaganov said.