The Islamic world will explode with anti-American demonstrations - and this is the softest of the consequences of a decision that seems to have been finally accepted by the United States. It is reported that Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and decided to transfer the American embassy to this city. Why did the US President announce this now?
Wishing to develop domestic political success (the adoption of the tax reform by the Senate), to divert attention from both the investigation of "Russian ties" and the inability to find a "worthy" response to the test by the Koreans of the intercontinental missile, the White House decided to switch the focus of world media from the Far Eastern crisis to the Middle East. And so that few will not seem to anyone. Donald Trump said that he was ready to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. In a telephone conversation with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, he informed him of his intention to move the American embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. So reports Reuters referring to the official representative of the head of the Palestinian administration - noting that in response
Abass warned Trump that such a move would have dangerous consequences.
On Tuesday, Trump talked also with the Israeli prime minister and the Jordanian king. About the maximum negative reaction, Trump was warned before he announced his decision.
The United States must understand the serious consequences if President Trump of Jerusalem is recognized as the capital of Israel, the head of European diplomacy Federica Mogerini said Tuesday. And Turkish President Erdogan said on Tuesday morning what the man who claimed to be the new Caliph, that is, the leader of the entire Islamic world, had to say:
"Jerusalem is the red line for Muslims. Such a decision will be a heavy blow for all mankind. We will not leave it. America has no more problems, but is it left? We will fight to the last. Can even reach a break in diplomatic relations with Israel. I once again warn America that it does not take steps that will further deepen the crisis in the region. "
Although this statement can also be viewed in the context of increasingly strained relations between Turkey and the United States, the West and NATO as a whole, the theme of Jerusalem is so explosive that, in case of an aggravation, can itself outshine any other crisis.
As you know, no country in the world recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. The fact is that the eastern part of this city was captured by the Jewish state during the 1967 war and illegally annexed to the western part that was part of it since the country was founded in 1948. The question of the status of Jerusalem is the main obstacle on the path not even to the Palestinian-Israeli, but to the Arab-Israeli settlement.
After all, there are the main shrines of the three religions - Christianity, Islam and Judaism. The Temple Mount with its Al-Aqsa Mosque is the third most important shrine for Muslims around the world after Mecca and Medina. But for the Jews, the Wailing Wall is important, which is one of the sides of this very Temple Mount, on which, according to their legend, the Jewish Temple should be revived. Israel categorically refuses to discuss refusal of its control over the Wall and the old city - and the Palestinians, like the entire Islamic world, and UN resolutions, require Israel to stop the occupation of East Jerusalem.
Donald Trump, being only a presidential candidate, promised to move the US embassy to Jerusalem - but, as with the intention of "getting along with Putin," he has not kept his word. But if the United States is struggling to build relations with Russia, the united coalition from the Congress, the political establishment, the "deep state" and the American media is hindered, then in the case of Jerusalem there is no contradiction between the White House and the establishment.
For the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the transfer of the embassy, the US parliament voted back in 1995, but all these years, all US presidents have postponed the implementation of this law every six months. In the summer, Trump did this, expressing a desire to reconcile the Palestinians and Israelis. 4 December came a new deadline to postpone it again, but suddenly 1 December there were reports that Trump could announce the recognition.
And on Monday, the deputy White House spokesman said that Trump was going to fulfill his election promise - "the president made it clear that in this case it's not about whether it will happen, but about when it will happen."
At the same time Reuters sources in the US administration said that Trump will declare the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, but again postpone the transfer to the city of the American embassy from Tel Aviv. Half the solution will be no less explosive - the reaction in the Islamic world, from Morocco to Indonesia, will be very loud.
Therefore, it is not surprising that, according to Reuters, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Secretary of Defense James Mattis spoke out against the transfer of the diplomatic mission, which believe that such a step could threaten American diplomats and military personnel in the Middle East and in countries with a predominantly Muslim population. And National Security Adviser Robert McMaster said that "I'm not sure what decision he (Trump) will take, we offered him a number of options": "
"There are options, including the transfer of the embassy at a certain stage in the future, which, I think, can be used as an impetus towards a peace agreement and a solution that will suit both the Israelis and the Palestinians."
Recognition of the status of Jerusalem could be called a great victory for the Israeli lobby in the US, if it were not so like a Pyrrhic victory. Because it will not only ruin the relations of Israel with their only partner among the Islamic countries and one of the key countries of the region - Turkey, but will significantly weaken the US positions in the region, which are at the historical minimum.
"This step, if it will be undertaken, will be a radical turn, unjustified, in the position of the US as a neutral player, and a transition to the other side," said Trump's decision at the Saudi Foreign Ministry the day before:
"This step will have extremely serious consequences, complicate the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and slow down the operational measures to revive the peace process. This will provoke the feelings of Muslims around the world in view of the central position of Jerusalem and its extreme importance. "
And the League of Arab States has already stated that such a decision by Washington will become aggression against all Arab countries, "violation of the rights of the Palestinian people, a challenge for Muslims and Christians around the world."
Calculating Trump for the benefit of recognizing the status of Jerusalem as a stumbling block - by opening this topic, he will not achieve any distraction from the Far Eastern Korean impasse, nor the sustained support of the pro-Israel lobby in the "Washington swamp".
As the continuation of the story with the investigation of the "Russian trace" shows, concern for the interests of Israel already cost Trump a very high price - indeed, the topic his former assistant Flynn spoke with Russian ambassador Kislyak was exactly the question of the UN resolution unprofitable for Tel Aviv. In December of last year, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kouchner asked Flynn to discuss the possibility of moving the vote on this resolution. The general complied with the request, and then, when the FBI began questioning him about the content of the conversation with the ambassador, forgot to mention only this one topic.
As a result, Flynn was accused of lying during the interrogation, and soon he would be sentenced for this. It is noteworthy that for all those nine months that the scandal surrounding the conversation between Flynn and Kislyak has lasted, there was not a single leak about what the general had hidden (or really forgot) from the FBI. Neither Israel nor the Israeli lobby in Washington did not shield Flynn nor explain that it was not about American-Russian relations at all.
But apart from the intra-American history, with the recognition of Jerusalem, there is also a much more important foreign policy, international dimension - the reaction to this, in the literal sense, the provocative step of the US will be more than tough. The Islamic world will explode with anti-American demonstrations - and this will only be the visible part of that collapse that will trigger Trump's decision today.