Four billion dollars - by the same amount Russia has replaced imported products since the beginning of the embargo, said the Ministry of Agriculture. Three years ago it launched the positive trends on every grocery market. However, this is not enough for the further growth of domestic goods production. What is the obstacle?
"Almost 4 billion dollars produced an internal Russian products - this is what we call import substitution. That is, domestic cheeses, sausages, other products, which used to be imported from abroad, has been replaced by Russian products, "- said Deputy Minister of Agriculture Yevgeny Gromyko" Prodexpo "after the opening of the exhibition.
Russia has reduced imports of food due to prodembargo 2014 years 60 from 20 billion to billion dollars, said earlier the Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev. According to him, domestic products occupy 80-90% range in the shops.
Food embargo operates in Russia for a number of countries from August 2014 years. The ban came the meat and meat products, milk and dairy products, fish and fish products, vegetables and fruits.
According to the National Meat Association, last year the production of poultry, pork and beef, with the exception of small-bovine meat, continued to grow - by 5,1% compared to 2015. The greatest success is shown by pig production - an increase of 10%, while poultry production has slowed somewhat. "The reason is low prices for poultry meat, which last a long time. Last year, there was almost no price increase compared to the 2015 year, while the cost of production grew due to appreciation of import components, "explains the chief expert of the National Meat Association Diana Nizovtseva. In particular, Russian companies use imported soybean sprat, imported veterinary drugs and imported hatching eggs.
Beef production is the most problematic segment of the meat market. However, progress is being made here. In 2016 the first time in a long time is fixed even if small, but the increase in beef production - to 0,5%. This was possible thanks to the implementation of the subroutine 2012 year state program of livestock development. The share of beef cattle herd has more than 15% in the total volume of cattle (milk plus beef cattle). For comparison: in 2012-year its share was less than 5%. In the dairy sector, as there is a long-term drop in the number of livestock.
"In 2017-year trend of reduction in imports of meat will continue. But that's not to be critical and to exert any influence, including on prices. In poultry imports, for example, is irrelevant 4,2% », - says Diana Nizovtseva.
Overall, however, the growth limit is exhausted in the meat market. Russia may add a couple of kilograms per year for meat production, and more - is more complicated. The fact that the rate of meat consumption in the country has reached a fairly decent numbers - 73 kg per person, Nizovtseva explains. The highest rate was in 2013-year, when the Russians consumed by 75 kg of meat per person per year.
The Russians, by the way, eating meat is much larger than the world average. Average is 45 kg per person. However, before the United States is far from Russia - there are per capita consumption of more than 100 kg of meat per year.
The main obstacle to the further development of meat production in Russia will be this year's low income. That is due to the internal market is difficult to ensure high rates of meat production. Only one way out - to seek export markets.
However, the general director of Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko Institute Study sure that Russia is unlikely to succeed, because the Russian meat products are expensive and can not withstand competition. Therefore, in the meat sector saving achieved result will be a good result.
Russian herring, shrimp and salmon in the black
Prodembargo led to a number of positive trends and the fish market. Fishing industry shows not only increase yield but also a decline in imports with an increase in Russian exports. Imports last year fell by almost 9 511,6% to ths. Tons. Russia has become much less buy abroad frozen capelin, herring frozen and frozen salmon. Imported canned Russians also were less likely to buy, preferring Russian, including sprats. Although the purchase is necessary to increase the import of mackerel and trout (also frozen).
At the same time, the Russian fishermen have managed to increase exports, including by increasing the supply of finished and tinned fish products.
It tells the president of the Russian Association of Fishery Enterprises, entrepreneurs and exporters of German Zverev, kontrsanktsii led to a significant increase in deliveries of Pacific herring in the domestic market (with 35 190 thousand tons to thousands of tons). In addition, the increased supply of products from pollock: in the year 2014 - 250 thousand tons, year 2016 - 320 thousand tons.
Overall kontrsanktsii increased the attractiveness of the Russian shrimp, herring and salmon. "Now almost the whole of the Far East fishing shrimp - 15 thousand tonnes - goes to the domestic market", - notes Zverev.
The main problem this year will also be associated with a reduction in the purchasing power of the population.
Dairy market situation shows diverse. On the one hand the domestic agricultural companies for three consecutive years, increasing production volumes, and continues to grow the productivity of dairy herd.
According to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) at the end of the year 2016, in general, the gross production of milk decreases. But the production of marketable milk does show a small increase - up to 17,8 million tons. The bulk - 80% - produced agricultural. Yes, and milk production of cows in 2016, the growing and reach a record 5800 kg per year, while reducing the number of cows to 1%.
On the other hand, there is a strong shortage of raw materials, which led to a record-high prices for raw milk.
Finally, the Russian dairy producers have complained that they do not become the main beneficiary, and Belarusian producers. Belarusians and to 2014 years occupied a significant share of the Russian market, but now further strengthened its position. According to the Soyuzmoloko Mary Zhebit if our processors have been a lot of raw materials, the Russian producers would displace imports. And so instead of import substitution in the background prodembargo fit to introduce targeted belorusozameschenie.
Russia remains one of the largest countries-importers of dairy products: in terms of raw milk is the ratio of imports to the volume of marketable milk is about 40%, reports "Agroinfo". In Belarus in the total import of butter has to 82% in Russia, cheese - 87%, milk powder and whey powder - 85%, dairy products - 99%.
The shift in consumer demand towards cheaper products and competition with Belarusian products leads in general to a drop in production of dairy products. So, falling production volumes in Russia and the mass of butter milk powder and cheese. But increasing the production of dairy products. Easy milk crisis drink more than buy expensive cheeses and cottage cheese. Release cheeses slowed significantly (growth of only 2% last year).
Improvements situation experts do not expect in the year 2017. Prohibit the export of dairy products from Belarus, which is included in the EEAS, Moscow can not. Only if we can catch the Belarusians in non-compliance with phytosanitary and veterinary standards and rules against the background of deteriorating relations between the two countries in recent years. On the other hand, the milkmen have leverage to lobby for themselves special preferences and government support. Russian manufacturers of dairy products still rely on it and on the growth of real wages of Russians.
Greenhouses and Gardens - a haven for investors
But the market for fruits and vegetables is still far from saturation, and good news is expected from him in 2017 year too. Last year, a record gross collection of vegetables was already received - 5,42 million tons, which is 200 thousand tons more than last year. According to such crops as onions, carrots, zucchini, Russia has already reached the level of self-sufficiency, according to cabbage the figure is 62%, for cucumbers - 78%, for tomatoes - 56%, the director of the Department of Plant Production, Mechanization, Chemicalization and Plant Protection Petr Chekmarev. According to his estimate, the average profitability of the sector in the past year was 10%. This is an important fact, which gives grounds to expect further growth in investment in the industry.
The greatest hope for this year's growth in vegetable and fruit production, primarily due to growth in the area of greenhouses and intensive orchards.
One of the main achievements prodembargo - is the growth of greenhouse agriculture. Only in 2016 was expected to be introduced 185 hectares of greenhouses, and in the next five years plans to build more greenhouses with total area of 400 2 thousand. Ha.
Vegetable growing in greenhouses after administration prodembargo became one of the most investment-growing sectors. According to the Association "Greenhouses of Russia" to the beginning of the year 2017 total area of greenhouses in the country reached about 2,3 thousand. Ha. Of these, 600 hectares built over the past five years, including 300 hectares - with photoculture (light provide electric lamps). Greenhouses with photoculture important to develop in order to provide the Russians vegetables in the winter. Now in the winter, we provide ourselves with vegetables less than a third, and the rest has to be brought.
But the situation is changing before our eyes. Only in 2016-th year in the construction and modernization of greenhouses in Russia invested more than 33 billion rubles, said the president of the National Union of vegetable producers Sergei Korolev. Moreover, not only profile players of the market contribute, investors come to this business even from oil industry, from telecommunications and from the alcohol market. Vegetable farming thanks to the prodembargo becomes a profitable business, besides this market is far from being saturated. According to expert estimates, in order to cover Russia's needs for indoor vegetables, every year production should grow to 1,8 million tons per year, that is, by another 1 million ton (now more than 800 thousand tons). This may take another three to four years.
I wonder what the situation on the cucumbers and tomatoes is very different. Due to the higher profitability of production of cucumbers in greenhouses, their share is almost 70%. Tomatoes take 25%, and only 5% - peppers, eggplants and greens.
cucumber market is already approaching its saturation. This means that investors will soon have to draw their attention to the establishment of greenhouses for growing tomatoes, and then switch to pepper and other vegetables. Prevent this can only complete return of Turkish tomatoes to the Russian market. But in this issue Russia is in no hurry to meet the desire of Ankara.
Plus Russia maintains state support greenhouse industry at 3-3,5 billion rubles annually. In the Agriculture Ministry noted that the Office did 31 project on development of vegetable growing almost 40 billion rubles in loans by the end of last year.
As for fruits, there is also an investment boom here. Investors again from different sectors of the economy began to invest in laying fruit gardens, mostly apple trees. Literally at the beginning of the year the project of laying a fruit garden on 100 ha in the Belgorod region was approved. The investor was Promsvyazkapital. It is clear that the citrus and other exotic fruits of Russia should not be started and fight with imports. But it is obliged to provide itself with apples. Moreover, this industry promises a good profit. According to expert estimates, the production of apples is more profitable than the production of cereals. At the same time, the investments are not so significant. For the establishment of a garden, smaller land areas and not so much expensive equipment are needed at times.
The problem is that the orchards, in fact, just started last year. Therefore, a serious result is not visible yet. Before prodembargo lot of imported apples, and now a lot of imports. I changed only the supply chain. Previously, apples went directly from Poland to Russia, but now it's all done through Belarus, where the goods perefasovyvayut and remove from the ban. So, in 2015, the share of imported apples was more than 70%, although there was a decrease of imports to 15%.
But given the claimed investments in 2016-2017 years in bookmark intensive orchards in Russia, a more serious situation can change for the 2019-2020 years. Here, the main risk is revocation of kontrsanktsy.