The leader of the IGIL *, the "Caliph" of al-Baghdadi, apparently, is dead - this is getting more and more confirmation. Against the background of the capture of Mosul and the approaching fall of Rakki, this allows us to speak about the imminent end of the history of the "Islamic State" created by Baghdadi. Whose project was it, how did it come about and what will be its continuation?
At the end of this month, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (in the pre-war life of Ibrahim al-Badr) would have turned 46 years old. But he lived only 45 - a native of the Iraqi Samarra died 28 May under the Syrian Raccoon after the Russian military aircraft attack. On its probable death, the Russian military first announced 16 June. Over the past four weeks there have been many confirmations of the caliph's death, but only on Tuesday there were reports that the leader's death recognized the death of the leader *.
The Iraqi television station Al-Sumaria reported that the leadership of the IG issued a statement in which it recognized that al-Baghdadi had been killed, and a successor would be appointed in his place shortly. In the statement, there were no details of the death of al-Baghdadi. The name of the successor does not matter at the same time - the deceased was not just a symbol of the IG, he was the one who took the liberty of proclaiming himself caliph, that is the supreme secular and religious head for all Muslims in the world. The new Caliph simply can not appear like this. So, the successor of al-Baghdadi will be called the emir, which does not go to any comparison with the title of the deceased.
And where will the new leader of the IG rule? The capital of the IG is the Syrian Rakka - barely stands under the blows of its storming squads, and the largest city they control, the Iraqi Mosul - in those days has actually finally fallen. On Monday, Iraqi Prime Minister Haydar al-Abadi announced a "great victory" and the complete release of Mosul.
Three years ago, 5 July 2014, it was in the mosque mosque Ibrahim al-Badr personally declared faithful about the proclamation of the caliphate. Then, in the summer of 2014, the caliphate, which appeared as if from nowhere, controlled vast territories in Iraq and Syria, on its lands lived up to 10 million people. IG proclaimed the main "enemy of mankind" all the main countries of the world, against it was a coalition of 60 countries of the world led by the United States, and Russia, together with Iran, helped to resist the "caliphate" in Syria. And now, three years later, with the fall of Mosul and the death of Baghdadi, the "caliphate" disappears, dissolves in the air.
What was all this?
These were the consequences of the US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan at the turn of the century. The occupation of Iraq did not have any legal, moral or political grounds. Everyone understood that Washington simply wants to establish full control over one of the key countries of the Middle East, in which the independent regime ruled, moreover, it also had pan-Arab ambitions.
After the occupation of the US, partly consciously, partly because of a misunderstanding of the situation, in fact, destroyed the central authority in Iraq. They did not hear warnings that the collapse of Iraq would lead to the collapse of the entire Middle Eastern "house of cards", that artificial territorial division that was created on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire after World War I by Britain and France.
It does not matter whether the United States wanted controlled chaos in the Middle East or simply acted by trial and error - the result was not long in coming. They opened the Pandora's box, released the forces of chaos, provoked the Islamic resistance and the Arab insurrection - you can call it anything. Since 2003 year in Iraq, civil war has unfolded simultaneously with religious, ethnic and other aspects - and a war with the invaders, with religious implication.
The US was unable to defeat this chaos. As a result, they preferred to leave Iraq, leaving there puppet power and thousands of advisers. But all the problems and contradictions remained, the entire strife and division remained, as did the actual disintegration of Iraq. After the "spring" swept through the Arab world in 2011, the process of further spreading the insurrection was a matter of time.
Indeed, the civil war that began in 2011 in Syria next to Iraq (and there are often the same peoples and tribes on both sides of the border) immediately linked the two states. And it led to the formation of the third - the "Islamic State of Iraq", proclaimed even in the middle of zero in separate Sunni areas of Iraq, is tied with "brothers" on the other side of the border, becoming 2013 the "Islamic state of Iraq and the Levant" (more precisely, Shama - Islamic the name of Syria and Lebanon). And in the summer of 2014, after the capture of Mosul Baghdadi (no one really knows before) proclaims himself the caliph of the already worldwide "Islamic Caliphate." Whose project was it?
We are dealing with a combination of several elements. Another Iraqi "Caliphate" was associated with Al-Qaeda - but what is this organization, Al-Qaeda? The Islamic version of the "communist international", the network structure, the secret order, the organization of the Muslim resistance of Western expansion, the joint creation of Western intelligence agencies and "walking along the path of jihad"? In any case, the "Caliphate" surpassed al-Qaeda and Baghdadi bin Laden. For the first time in modern history and almost a century after the liquidation of the last caliphate, uncompromising Islamic fighters have their own territory and their leader on it. And with global ambitions - the "caliphate" is a worldwide one.
So after the proclamation of the caliphate, Islamists from all over the world literally "broke" into it, both war dogs and romantics, both terrorists and fighters for Islamic happiness and against the Western occupation. "Caliphate" became an instrument in the hands of terrorists? Yes, although this is a rather severe coarsening - terrorist Islamist networks acted even before the formation of the "caliphate", they will act even after his death. But that's what he really gave them - so it's an invaluable experience of fighting and a huge advertising campaign of "jihad against the Crusaders", and therefore tens of thousands of new supporters.
But the tactic of intimidation - the terrible mass executions, filmed on video and laid out on the Internet - most likely, is introduced into the IG from outside. That is, someone from the Islamists who came to its territory (from Europe, the US or the former USSR), it is painfully cynical and technological calculation, issuing a resident of the "society of consumption and pleasure."
The "Caliphate" was a challenge not so much for the US as for the Islamic countries themselves. And not only Iraq and Syria - but also Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and all Arab countries. And taking more widely - for the whole Islamic world. Because he offered a bright image of the "state of true Islam", a single Islamic world, that is, the dream of which millions of Muslims pray.
Confronting the West, that is, the aggressors who came to the Islamic land, denouncing the unjust rulers of the Islamic countries that have departed from the righteous way of life - all this made the caliphate attractive to a certain category of citizens both in the Islamic world and outside it. It was in this "caliphate" that the Moscow student Varvara Karaulova aspired.
For Russia, the "caliphate" gradually became a very big problem - when it became clear that thousands of immigrants from our country and the post-Soviet space were fighting there. And among them there are many who considered the war in Syria and Iraq only as a rehearsal for jihad in the territory of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Russia. After the fall of 2015, Russia launched a military operation in Syria, most of them will always remain in ancient land on both sides of the Euphrates.
"Caliph Ibrahim" is dead. The "Caliphate" disappears - in time to be reborn in the same or another place of the Islamic world. After all, the ball of conflicts that contributed to his appearance, has not disappeared anywhere.