In the first month of the new year, the Syrian army suffered a series of setbacks, beginning with the annihilation of several generals at once, ending with the surrender under the cameras in a number of sectors. On the other hand, last night it was announced a major victory in the so-called. The goblin reserve, Idlib Province, remains a bulwark of terrorists. What's happening?
On the morning of 11 January, the Syrian government army took part of the Abu Dahur airbase and the town of the same name in the north of the province of Ham. It is possible that by Thursday evening, both the city and the base will be completely taken under control, which will lead to the operational environment (it is also the "cauldron") of the large grouping "Djebhat an Nusra", "Ahrar ash Sham" and other gangs smaller than the south more durable than Dahur. Territorially this makes up about a third of the "goblin reserve" - the long-suffering province of Idlib.
It turned out that the government troops for about a month were preparing a new offensive in the northern direction, during which the positions of the SAA on the internal fronts were weakened. This, in turn, led to a series of failures (for example, in East Guta near Damascus), which were widely disseminated by jihadists.
The first blow to encircle the group east and south-east of Dahur was inflicted by government troops from the east - from Hanassera to Tal Duman. The distance to the western front in this segment is about 10 kilometers - quite passable. However, subsequently the choice was made in favor of the north-south offensive: in the southern sector, directly through the Abu Dahur air base (the former major military targets of the Syrian army were turned into jihadists at their earliest stage of the war), on the northern (conditionally - from Aleppo ) along the route from Abu Ruwayla to the same Tal Duman.
Here the distance is twice as large - from 18 to 20 kilometers in a straight line, but by closing the boiler exactly along the north-south line, the government troops cut off much more territory at once than with the first version of the offensive. In addition, the strategic fork in the roads of Abu Dahur has already been seized, which automatically blocks terrorists from leaving the cauldron. The total number of local settlements in Abu Dahur, liberated by government forces and allies, is already on dozens.
As early as Wednesday, "Jebhat al-Nusra" and "Ahrar ash Sham" attempted to retreat from the cauldron. Late. After the occupation of Abu Dahur in the north-eastern Hama and the south-western part of the Aleppo region, the collapse of the jihadist front came, which successfully held for more than a year and a half.
For about two months, the government forces methodically hammered the enemy's front with serious help from the Russian Air Force. Russian pilots were very successful this week: during only one air attack, several dozen fighters were killed. In parallel, barrel artillery and RCDs were actively used. In the end, all this led to the fact that the reserves of the militants coming from Idlib were simply grinded, if not on the way to the front, then directly in its depth. The defense of jihadists in key areas simply collapsed, and in the depth of the front of the reserve they no longer exist.
Now, Jebhat an Nusra and Akhrar ash Sham, as well as a few small groupings from the former "moderate opposition" and pro-Turkish forces, announced some "retaliatory actions" using the "new reserves" from Idlib. In the morning of January 21, there were attempts to counterattack the positions of government forces south of Dahur. But if these reserves are left, they may well suffer the fate of former similar "mobilizations".
In the framework of unsuccessful retreat attempts, both large factions literally snatch heavy weapons from each other. "Ahrar ash-Sham" even summed up the total losses for 2017 year as a result of "theft" from "Jebhat an Nusra": it had five tanks, four infantry fighting vehicles, 26 artillery pieces, 76 anti-aircraft guns, 19 mortars, 21 rocket launcher , 700 assault rifles, 120 hand machine guns, 80 shots for grenade launchers, 100 missiles for Grad, and a significant amount of artillery and tank shells.
The territory of the boiler, which Nusrovtsi hastily left, occupies practically without a fight ИГИЛ *. The fact is that in the extreme south of this territory around the city of Surudzh there is preserved a small and in fact meaningless grouping of Islamists, which so far nobody touches simply because it is useless. She from there still will not go anywhere, can not seriously influence the course of events, and she can not get any reserves from anywhere. Therefore, let him entertain himself, spraying tiny forces over a large territory, sooner or later the hands will reach them. There is no doubt that after the end of the operation in Abu Dahur they will simply be destroyed.
In other words, after several months of preparation, an operation began on a creeping attack on the "Idlib Reserve" using the usual tactics of fire and air support and the formation of large boilers, which was facilitated by the enemy's dependence on the poorly developed road network and the delivery of reinforcements and ammunition. It was expected, however, that the first in the series of boilers would be the so-called Latin protuberance, for which about a month worked Russian VCS. But Damascus began to cut a larger ledge, especially as the jihadists were better fortified in the Latin position, and several attempts at frontal attacks on him had not been successful in the last two years.
Finally, cutting the ledge along the north-south line will radically change the configuration of the front. And then you can talk about the threat directly to the settlement of Idlib - the capital of the "reserve". Yes, in theory, but in the foreseeable future.
It is another matter that, as said above, on this background, secondary sectors of the internal fronts, for example, jihadist enclaves in the provinces of Damascus and Homs, were abandoned. It also affected traditional slovenliness, reinforced by dizziness from success. As a result, in the post-Novoye period, there were several significant failures in the previously seemingly stable areas, which was used by jihadists and "moderate" for propaganda purposes.
All this once again confirms the old principle: enclaves surrounded and not surrendering after negotiations must be constantly pressured, otherwise they lose the shore. Actually, there were practically no contractual people, so these territories should be kept in suspense, not relaxing by themselves. The rear parts of the government troops are traditionally less stable in moral terms than the assault units, and are quite capable of losing combat capability at an accelerated pace. As the events in East Gut showed.
Nothing critical or strategically important happened there, but there is no need to give extra propaganda reasons to jihadists and "moderate". European media in recent days again switched to "evidence" of the British "Human Rights Monitoring Center in Syria" and the "White Helmets" that have revived in Idlib, which in itself is indicative. The scheme of their behavior does not change with this: both famous organizations habitually produce staged reporting on the "atrocities of Russian aviation" in Idlib.
"Al-Qaeda, in turn, called its panic after the fall of Dahur supporters" not to leave Syria ", because" it's not over ". There also marks the pro-Turkish Liberation Army of Turkestan, which recently announced a jihad to the government of Bashar Assad (as if they were asked at all). So feykov in the next days will be a lot, as well as reports on the successes of the CAA. The main thing is not to confuse one with another.
* Organization, in respect of which the court accepted an inured decision on liquidation or prohibition of the activity on the grounds provided the Federal Law "On Countering Extremist Activity"