Pressure in the boiler increases.
The empire must always be able to defend itself.
Without stopping at anything.
But it happens that the old imperial power is decrepit and young people are trying to replace it, ready to try the stability of the Empire for strength.
If she gets very hard in the face, she will probably calm down for several generations.
If not, the Empire will fall.
But besides the ability to give in the face, you need to be able to understand what will happen after that.
And after that there can be both a calm and a reaction. More precisely, the response will be commensurate with the reaction of the authorities. That is, the ability of the elite, apart from violence, to do what the people expect of it.
If the elite does this, violence will be forgiven.
If she does not, she will be raped herself. And remember all past grievances in full.
Studies by independent experts showed that only 10% of followers of Navalny knew about the true plans of the organizers of the rallies. The rest were there in accordance with the boiling indignation. The meetings of Navalny, no matter how they tried to show them by the movement of traitors and traitors, are based on completely objective grounds: As in the late USSR. It:
1. Continuous decline in the standard of living of the population.
2. Continuous lies in the media.
3. Exceeded the threshold of patience of the population by the arrogance of the current elite and members of its families.
That is, it is not at all in Navalny, but the matter is that there is a system WHERE SOCIETY CAN NOT INFLUENCE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF ELITE, EXCEPT BUNT.
No changes in the behavior of the elite occur even after replacing some of its odious representatives with others. Thus, Oreshka, who came to replace Ulyukaev, is no different from his predecessor in his views on economics and economic policy. Никакие изменения в поведении элиты не наступают даже после замены одних одиозных её представителей на других. Так, пришедший на смену Улюкаеву Орешкин ничем не отличается от своего предшественника во взглядах на экономику и экономическую политику. Кудрин, Силуанов, Греф, Костин, Набиуллина, Дворкович, Медведев, Сечин, Роттенберги с Платоном, Якунин с шубохранилищем, иконами и сыном в Лондоне с британским гражданством, Шувалов с недвижимостью везде, миллиардеры из Единой России, принимающие грабительские законы, Ткачёв в ранге сельского министра-феодала, министр мёртвой промышленности Мантуров на трёх Феррари с замком в Шотландии, лицо Путина Песков с запредельными по цене часами, дочкой во Франции, открыто презирающей Россию в соцсетях, олигарх Абызов в ранге министра без портфеля, спортивная мафия во главе с Мутко, непотопляемый Чубайс, дети путинских сподвижников на высших постах самых хлебных корпораций, Ельцин-центр с разрезающим там ленточку Путиным, памятник Солженицыну, мемориальные доски колчакам и маннергеймам от лица власти - все это в глазах населения давно слилось в единый поток, от которого ни спастись, ни закрыться. Что даёт основания населению считать, что Путин и элиты - одна банда, где Путин - главарь, а банда - покрываемая главарём группа преступников. What makes the population think that Putin and the elite are one gang, where Putin is the ringleader, and the gang is the group of criminals covered by the leader.
And no cries of the guardians about the intrigues of the State Department and the fifth column convince this part of the population in the opposite. Rather, they will perceive Putin as a disguised leader of this fifth column, and protectors - either by duck ducks and messed-up Cossacks, or useful to enemies idiots. The guards lose their authority and become marginalized, ridiculous, their adherents acquire the fame of the near fools who do not see that they are simply manipulated for the sake of preserving the power of that very fifth column, they fool their heads, they use cunning and greedy cynics. That protecting their power, they thereby protect and all the conditions for their prosperity. And no talk about the vices of this elite can not change anything in her behavior. That is, they simply lower the "pairs into the whistle," and behind their naive backs, the elites remain and pursue completely different goals, not those that are defended by middle-paying Kurghinians, old men and other fonds with foam at the mouth. All sorts of nods, the essence of time, anti-Maidan, great-fatherland parties were a bunch of naive simpletons to pay for those against whom they arrange their safe get-togethers, and the young guards and those who come together did not just turn out to be money for money, but shameful failures, They diminished the authority of the authorities, and not strengthened it. The people were tired of them and turned away.
So the government began to grow old before the eyes and do not keep up with the opposition. The maturing process of the counter-elite went ahead in all pairs and the existing elite ceased to outstrip the events.
The dilemma of Putin: how to break away from the compromised elite, without breaking away from it.
Elite today has long been not an elite, but a parasite. This created a new national consensus.
That is, taking the place of the elite according to the administrative criterion, in place in formal power, the elite failed according to the criterion of the authority of opinion and the power of the informal. The administrative elite completely lost the struggle for influence over the minds and souls of the people.
Moreover, the people hate it so much that it became dangerous for Putin to stand too close to the elite.
As it is dangerous to show a desire to leave it.
The current elite on the hook of the West - this is known to all.
Putin is on the hook of the elite. This is also known to everyone.
But at the same time, Putin is in conflict with the West, with Putin's elite on the hook - this is also a well-known place.
Such a design accumulates the potential of a conspiracy more than the difference in current flows in the rotor winding and the stator accumulates a magnetic field.
Once Putin showed the ability to take violent steps and go to the end.
But this was a war in Chechnya. The local problem. Insane oligarchs were eliminated, the sane remained, the appointees were put in place of the eliminated ones, but the system remained the same. As for his own elite, Putin was more cautious. And there were reasons for this.
Now, the elites and Putin are objectively disagreeing in the conflict of interests farther and farther. It is already known that the liberals became active first and launched a roll on Putin demanding a change in policy towards the interests of the West. For another part of the elite this means death and in fact a split of elites arose. Putin is waiting. The West presses from the outside. Liberals from the inside.
The crisis of the internal system is superimposed on the crisis of the global system.
In these conditions, there is a growing need to change the tactics of maneuvering into a series of strong steps to reformat the system. Moreover, such a need is both for Putin and for the liberals.
The compromise ceased to suit everyone. The old consensus is exhausted and the waiting for change has hung in the air. The whole question is who will start first and how will the opponents respond. The plot of the plot against Putin has become a permanent topic of the expert community. Only the forms and terms are varied, but the conspiracy itself is not questioned. The differences between the leading elite groups and the population of the country are too obvious. Three levels of conflict were identified:
1. Conflict of liberals and security forces within the elite community.
2. Conflict of the entire elite community as a whole with the population and alienation of the people from its ruling class.
3. Putin's interim position in the conflict between the elites and the people and the conflicting elite groups. This is the most difficult situation of all possible. The mediator is no longer trusted and is suspected of collusion with other players, which gradually turns him into an isolated figure, at the cost of eliminating which other groups can establish a new compromise.
So in due time they removed Nikolai Ii, Stalin, Khrushchev, Gorbachev. Yeltsin managed to forestall such a course of events and left himself. In the same way, Poroshenko's power in Ukraine is now losing power.
Now such a threat looms over Putin. The tactic of maneuvering raises the question: is Putin a coward or a strategist? His waiting is a sign of the decrepitude of the leader of a wolf pack or the trap of an experienced predator?
The logic of the Empire.
The logic of the Empire dictates the line of conduct to the Supreme Ruler. When the Empire tries to start fomenting conflicts, the authorities can only be protected by force. Directed not against the people, but against the warmongers.
Putin unambiguously begin to draw into the funnel of decisions that are increasingly inciting people to hate the authorities and personally to him. This is primarily all economic decisions that shift the hardships of the crisis from the elite to the people.
If you do not change the approach and do not force the elite to share in the crisis to a much greater extent than before, then the rebellion will sweep the state. But this can only be stopped by a dictator. The Fuhrer. Only he will be able, based on the people, to subjugate the elite to one will and get out of the crisis. However, then the dictator is not thanked, but cursed. Even if he did. Fortunately only Spanish Franco, but this is an exception. In general, without a dictatorship, a way out of the crisis of the system is impossible.
The only difference is that in a socialist economy such a dictatorship is possible in the form of attributes of military communism, and in the capitalist economy, in the form of fascism.
There is no third. And the crafty term "mobilization" is here intended not to highlight, but to obscure this essence.
For "mobilization" is different. Happens for Stalin, and sometimes for Hitler.
Putin is definitely not Stalin, not Mussolini and not Hitler. He's not even Franco or Pinochet.
And because he is very risky to become Nicholas II.
And he understands this perfectly.
And he will do everything to prevent this. This is just the logic of his past actions.
But in order to seriously push the elite, Putin needs a phenomenal result in the elections. Phenomenal.
That result, which will give him the necessary social base for stripping elite and changing its format. For metered and mild repression - speaking quite straightforward. What the liberals are trying to do with all their strength.
It is from here that the ears of Navalny are growing, playing out the very real vices of power
The vice of Navalny only in that he and the power criticized by him are Nanaian boys, who only imitate the struggle. But to break the phenomenal success of Putin, these games are quite capable. And therefore will continue with increasing power.
If Putin is afraid of unpopular decisions, just as Gorbachev was afraid of, he will end as well - except for the fact that instead of a lock in Germany, he is waiting for a camera in The Hague. And the grave next to Milosevic. At us the babahnet so that will not seem a little.
And that's why Putin is OBLIGED to clean up the elite. I repeat - DEFRECTED. If he wants to live by himself and save Russia. Such tailings can not be left. But he can do it only according to the results of the PHENOMENAL victory in the elections. If this does not happen, the policy of maneuvering will continue and end in the fact that the maneuvering will be driven into a corner.
From where they will take me to the basement of the Ipatiev House.
And it does not matter, by that time he will have the surname "Putin" or some other.
For they will not drive the ruler, but Russia.
And this is a completely different price issue.