One of the main complaints that apply to Putin opponents of Russian operations in Syria, lies in the fact that it is not clear how to get out of the Syrian crisis, and that is a realistic goal of the Russian presence in the region. Additional claim that the operation in Syria could lead to war with the United States, and just mortally offend our Western partners, which can not hurt. In general, the answer to these claims always was not difficult, but the last few days began to emerge a fairly clear picture out of the Syrian crisis, towards which the Kremlin. In Putin's classic style, all parties (except LIH) offers a reasonable and advantageous for them to compromise us. If once again refuse him, the situation will continue to evolve on the military option, and the following sentence is already less acceptable for them and more profitable for us. And it will be repeated for as long as, or some of Putin's proposals will not be accepted, or until the last Syrian rebels.
The essence of the proposals that are being discussed at the talks in Astana, and that Putin has previously discussed with Trump, is to set the present ceasefire between the army and Assad's pro-US forces through the establishment of four special zones of disengagement, or the so-called buffer zones. These areas must be mixed forces of other countries, which actually will ensure your presence ceasefire. Ideally, at least where it is physically possible, the Syrian military and pro-US rebels try to push each other over a distance, which in principle will not allow fire. Vladimir Putin noted that Donald Trump supported the idea and it is not bad. It is clear that there is still a lot of time can vary, but at least the first step.
If you look at this proposal from the point of view of our interests, the ability to stop fighting against the so-called moderate opposition and concentrate on destroying LIH - is a good idea. In addition, it is an opportunity to make the Americans after all once and for all decide on who it is they moderate insurgent and who is the real terrorist, because otherwise not be able to carry out the disengagement of the parties. Also, the separation of the warring parties as if the cement the relationship of forces, which is now observed in Syria and is beneficial for us because under the control of the Syrian army is a large part of the economically active in the country and most of the major cities.
I recall that not so long ago it seemed that Damascus is on the verge of surrender, and now it turns out that a large part of Syria is under control official in Damascus, and to protect this territory will be an international peacekeeping force. In addition, if an agreement on the delimitation of Assad would sign, it means that the West accept the fact that in the foreseeable future it is he will lead Syria. This will be the official end and failure of the "Arab Spring," which launched the group Hillari Klinton, and who have passed the bloody tsunami on the Arab world and the Middle East as a whole. Russia in this case would be just the force that broke the American plans in this key region, and this will bring us quite tangible bonuses in global political and economic issues. Our Middle Eastern partners will be much more tractable on a wide range of problems.
For the US administration offer the opportunity to close the Syrian issue, or rather, just leave it in limbo until better times. To risk a military confrontation with Russia for the sake of intervention in Syria in Washington want is not everything, and then opens a real opportunity to accept a compromise that can be presented to the American public as a decisive victory. If the administration Trump agree to the breeding of the warring parties in Syria, it is likely that the American public will say something like "Putin so scared Trump and tomahawks, which instantly gave up and refused to attack on the moderate opposition and the great Trump arranged for them the security zone, in which no-Assad will not work. Trump - the hero, not like Obama, who was a weakling. " Rough, of course, but it can work, especially if the US TV show viewers how US planes fiercely bombed positions LIH for which no truce certainly does not apply.
Such a deal on Syria could be derailed because of the fact that Washington's radicals, including those present in the Trump administration may find that they are in Syria can do better and what to leave Assad in living well, no way, because when you live Assad America no one the East will not be respected. Such a scenario is quite possible, but this is not a disaster. Again, it will be difficult for Washington to decide on a direct military conflict with Russia, and now the Americans will look less dangerous way out of the situation, their people will die in Syria by Russian bombs, and the territory under the control of Assad will continue to grow. It is possible that we will come to the same proposals on the delimitation of the parties, but with a different distribution of the territory. So that if the talks fail definitively in Astana, it does not matter.
But for whom the situation turns into quite an unpleasant direction, so it is for Erdogan. He was able to solve the winter Syrian issue bilaterally with Putin while the Americans were in a dysfunctional state after the elections. He missed this chance. Now he only hope is that Trump and Putin will take into account their interests. In general, from all this Syrian history can make a global conclusion. When Putin something to offer, it is necessary to agree, because then the conditions are guaranteed to be worse. This is a subtle hint of thick circumstances that apply to our Ukrainian neighbors on the globe.