"Things between the US and Russia will go perfectly. At the time, everyone will come to their senses and lasting peace will come! "This entry in Twitter Trump at the end of Tillerson Secretary of State's visit to Moscow was confused those who expect a new round of Russian-American confrontation. How could understand the results of the negotiations Tillerson and Mr. Putin?
This picture five years - Russian Prime Minister meets with the head of ExxonMobil, 16 years 2012 April
Tillerson visit was unique in many respects. Suffice it to the fact that for the first time in modern Russian, and Soviet history does not appear no official reports of meetings of the heads of Russia and the US secretary of state. There was even published pictures of the protocol, not to mention the video or the transcript of the beginning of the conversation. In general, the fact of the meeting, we only know from the words of Lavrov took part in it, and Tillerson, well, and of the answer to questions from the press secretary of the president of Russia.
How to understand this approach? At this unprecedented demonstrative gesture, Vladimir Putin went quite deliberately - to show the degree of discontent of Moscow with the atmosphere that Washington created on the eve of Tillerson's visit. More precisely - a blow to the Syrian airbase, which Trump decided to inflict on the day of the arrival of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Moscow was informed in advance, warned, the Kremlin even realized that Trump beat first of all on his American opponents - but this did not at least eliminate the irritation from this Trump style. Solving their internal political problems, getting rid of the label of "Putin's puppet", still did not go anywhere. But to arrange such a show before the Chinese leader, thereby casting a shadow on the relations between Moscow and Beijing - this is already too much.
Yes, Beijing has not changed its position on Syria nor, much less on relations with Russia, but Moscow found it necessary to emphasize the immutability of the policy of rapprochement with China. On Thursday, talking about coming in the same day, Putin's meeting with the first vice-premier of China, Dmitry Peskov, first used the term "alliance" with regard to the Russian-Chinese relations. And this is also an important demonstration: Moscow understands the meaning of the US game against the rapprochement between Russia and China.
Well, in the United States address all been said before meeting with Tillerson. And she has become really a turning point in the set for a pause in Russian-American relations.
Rex Tillerson spoke with the Russian president for two hours. The evening of Wednesday in Moscow and Washington is divided several hours, but when President Trump spoke at a press conference with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, he already knew about the results of the meetings that took place in the Russian capital with his special envoy. Not in detail, but apparently, in general terms, the Secretary of State has already told the President about his conversation with Putin. That's why Trump called the visit "very successful", "maybe even better than expected." Recalling that relations between Russia and the United States "are probably at a historically low point," Trump said he still hopes that the US and its allies "can get along with Russia" and that "it would be fine."
And on Thursday morning, Trump tweeted: "Things between the US and Russia will go perfectly. At the time, everyone will come to their senses and lasting peace will come! "
What gives cause for optimism Trump? Or is it again a part of his "treacherous game" - to talk about friendship, and then hit the Syrian Air Force Base? After all, the so-evaluate strategy Trump, many Russian observers experiencing, as if Putin is not seduced by such "cunning traps" and not sacrifice national interests of Russia for the sake of illusory hopes for improved relations with the United States. Such childish naive view of the Trump and Putin is not uncommon in our country, but it has no relation to reality. That Trump wants and what he plays with Putin?
Trump wants to dialogue on equal terms - yes, as it may seem strange, it does not feel equal to Putin. Not because Putin once great, but because the Russian president has certain skills strategy game in geopolitics and experience in the implementation of its plans, the ability to defend the interests of his country.
Trump wants to be the same as Putin. And he realizes that he has no time to gain experience of the geopolitical game that the Russian president has received in recent years 18. Trump really respects Putin wants to show him that he is also a strong player. Not only Putin, of course, to all world leaders - but in fact for him to have a value of just a few people: in addition to the president of Russia is Xi Jinping, Shinzo Abe, Narendra Modi ... They Trump will carry a great game in the next four, and even eight years.
Trump is the strongest player in the business, that is, in human relations - and he proved it by winning the presidential election is almost alone, without the support of the party machine or serious following establishment. But in international affairs, it has little experience. He has a strong advisers on geopolitics - including the most experienced and smart player in the international relations of living Americans Genri Kissindzhera.
Trump's geopolitical philosophy, his ideas about the place and role of the United States in the world, his plans - all this can be adjusted under the influence of advisers and the situation, under the pressure of circumstances and various forces, but in general they will remain unchanged. A person does not change his beliefs in 70 years. Trump is convinced that America should take care of itself, not to feed the people and be a world leader at the expense of its power, and not control everything and everything. But for the US to be able to engage in its economy, they need to create favorable conditions for this in the external world. Make it so that foreign policy is less expensive and global, while other countries buy American goods, do not drag out America in their problems, but respect it. This view may seem naive, but it is inherent in Trump and in principle is beneficial to the entire world community. Another thing, what methods Trump will achieve this goal.
To engage in themselves, the States should get good conditions in relations with other players - the European Union, China, Russia. The current US relationship with them, Trump estimates as unprofitable. Europe, according to Trump, should pay for NATO itself, China should buy more American goods and less to supply its own in the United States. As for Russia, Trump's claims to her are much less. He was just hoping to work with Russia to resolve the problems that prevented America from engaging in itself: in particular, IGIL *. But claims to Russia are at the Anglo-Saxon elite, which equally does not like both Putin and Trump. And she beats Trump Putin - they say, a puppet, Russian connections.
And then Trump need to show that he is on his own. Well, and in addition, it is necessary to prepare for the conversation with Putin - that is, to take a strong position.
How to achieve this? And here it is already beginning to play the role of the character Trump - he likes to push, to raise rates, "run down". Demand more - get less. Trump uses this method with China, Europe, and Russia. In a personal conversation with Xi Jinping Trump shows maximum respect, and then tells him about the attack on Syria, carefully watching the reaction of the guests. But Trump does not want war - it checks to see how much and whether it will be possible to push the enemy. If it does not work - do not worry, the relationship will be built on the basis of their positions.
Russia has already responded to the Trumpov receptions, to raising rates in the same Syria. The words of Vladimir Putin - "Boring, girls" - were relevant to the attempt to squeeze the Kremlin into concessions. And Trump does not need concessions on Syria, he needed concessions in terms of recognizing his strong position. Putin was supposed, according to Trump's plan, to see that he was dealing with a strong rival, which would give the US president confidence in the subsequent bargaining with Russia. But Vladimir Putin made an unflappable face and made it clear that the manner of inflation of his rates was not impressive. Putin is helped not only by his experience, but also by a clear understanding that Trump is bluffing, that in reality he does not need to exacerbate relations with Russia, but to restore them. Putin "reads" Trump's motivation.
There is, however, really difficult situation. He openly talked about this back in February, when complaining that hysteria over "Russian ties" prevents him to establish relations with Russia and now Putin thinks that with him you can not make a deal, he can not be trusted.
Indeed, all this time, Trump was not possible to conduct a direct dialogue with Putin. One large and two short conversation on the phone - that's all it was for six months. Now, on a visit Tillerson, the situation is changing - for the first time Trump was able to convey to Putin that he wanted to hear, and in response, Putin saw fit to convey personally to Trump.
It was funny to hear about any ultimatums - Tillerson conversation with Putin would only apply to the establishment of relations between the Kremlin and the White House. Dialogue, conversation, which is now finally underway. Judging by how much effort over the last six months has been applied in order to prevent the possibility of the beginning of this dialogue, the fact that he still held, can be considered a major success.