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04.05.2017 - 18: 11

Russia, Turkey and Iran will do what failed to make the US

On Thursday, representatives of the Russian Federation, Iran and Turkey as a country - the guarantors of the truce in Syria was signed in Astana a memorandum on the establishment of the SAR, "de-escalation areas". While we are talking about the four areas that could be fly like that and like Americans. However, what is happening does not look a concession to Washington, as part of a more complex strategy that is not available for the United States.


According to the results of signing the memorandum in Astana, Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran Hossein Ansari Jaberi said that preparations for the full implementation of the agreement on the establishment of four security zones will take a month - only after this memorandum will take effect. A day earlier, a spokesman for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, commenting on the results of the talks the leaders of Russia and Turkey, said that if the de-escalation of the zones in Syria will not be carried out if there is a fire and will operate a truce, they would fly.

For its part, the Syrian armed opposition was ready to discuss the establishment of security zones, which in itself is a breakthrough. Now all traditionally rests in the details - the geography of these regions, the composition of the population and, most importantly, who and what forces will monitor compliance with the ceasefire agreements and loyalty to those who will live in these areas.

Many have seen this idea almost a direct agreement between the Russian Federation and the United States on the liability section in Syria, or at least a prototype of such an agreement. The fact is that the original idea of ​​"security zones" came from Washington, and even under President Obama. He also proposed to introduce a "no-fly zones" for the scheme, which at one time used the United States and NATO in Iraq simply "slicing" the country horizontally. Donald Trump took up this idea, almost making it nothing new, except that his diplomacy did not exclude Russia from this process.

In general, the principle of "after that - does not mean thereby" dates back to Roman law, and it would be shortsighted to forget about it. The assumption that the one who first said "meow", in the end, and will monitor the sky and the earth Syria does not hold water. US does not have any access to most parts of the Arab republic, except for a few Kurdish areas and airspace results agree only with the permission of the Russian contingent. In that short period of time, when the work is a "hot line" for the prevention of air accidents has been discontinued (it was in response to a rocket attack on the Syrian air base), they do not fly into the CAP. To place the American ground troops anywhere in Idlib not ready, and Washington itself.

Now the talks are just beginning, the parameters offer several times vary, but it is clear that the most promising is not so much the idea of ​​"drone zone" as the creation of some peacekeeping forces on the basis of the armies of the third countries not previously involved in the conflict. Mentioned "some Arab countries" and the BRICS.

In the Arab world can be counted on the fingers of the country, not involved in the civil war in Syria at the national level - it is Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. There are, of course, the United Arab Emirates, which in defiance of Saudi Arabia take on the Syrian issue is much more flexible and, importantly, do not climb into the internal affairs of Damascus.

As far as the BRICS, it is unlikely that a single Chinese soldier will be located somewhere on the east of Inner Mongolia. Beijing for ideological reasons will not go into conflicts that are directly (ie, looking from the battlements of the Great Wall) does not fall within its sphere of interest. Squeeze something in Africa from minerals dumping, investments or bribes - a Chinese tactics and strategy in one bottle, and risk something more than a pack of RMB, they will not.

Not suitable and India. For radical Islamists, Hindus and Sikhs - no people, and polytheists. Not even the heretics as the Alawites, and lesser beings much worse Christians (that is, somewhere on the level of the Yezidis to be destroyed). The emergence in the Indian troops of Syria not only turn them into a helpless target, but also to give a new impetus to the development of the conflict. "World champions Satan has imposed the presence of true faith curse of Allah polytheists" - what do you need for the revival undermined over the last year the spirit of jihad?

Around the same story with the South African army, which does not exist anymore "white" units, despite the abundance-Boer officers. Here it is necessary to forget about political correctness and recognize that the Arab Muslims in general negative attitude to the Negroid race. Of course, Africans, Muslims, or, say, blacks, Muslims are already part of the global ummah, but suspicious of them persists. In South Africa, as there is practically no Muslims, according to the latest census, about 1,3% of the population - descendants of immigrants still times of the British Empire, roughly speaking, the Pakistanis; and one will not be able to collect even a company.

What is a Brazilian army - a mystery. Yes, the army is, and rather big - up to 200 thousand personnel. They are, of course, you can send anywhere, given the pro-American orientation of the current leadership of the country, but Brazil's own problems in bulk, and is unlikely and. about. President Michel Temer will want to further irritate the already perturbed shock reforms his country. The fact that Temer - ethnic Arab, descendant of Orthodox refugees from Lebanon, is not important. In the history of Brazil, it is not the first vice president (a post he held until the impeachment Dilma Rousseff) of Arab origin in Brazil and Colombia is an influential stratum of the population is entirely formed of Christian refugees from the same Lebanon and Palestine after the proclamation of Israel and the radicalization of the local Islamic population. At the same time he and some personal problems in bulk (for example, married to Centerfolds to 43 years his junior, which is odd, even for Brazil). On the soul it is time to think, and not a peacekeeping mission in Syria.

Nevertheless, the potential internationalization of the conflict through peace nailing international forces (let's call them "protection") - a very promising idea. And she did not particularly like the "secret deal" between Moscow and Washington, and the frequent references to it is the "no-fly mode" looks like a curtsy have not really articulated the position of the new US administration on Syria.

The next question - where will be located such zones. Let's start with the fact that their size for today's Air Force will not exceed mathematical errors, with the exception of the same Idlib, if understood by the entire province of Idlib. Responsibility for the unmanned mode of Idlib may be on a parity basis is transferred to Turkey, which has never happened to develop the offensive in the Kurdish areas and on Al-Bab. Also mentioned in the memorandum of the territory of the city of Homs in Eastern Guta and in the south of Syria, but more clear boundaries - is the subject of heated debate further.

It should be understood that the first shot of a "de-escalation areas" immediately lead to retaliation. It is still not carried out the most important work, without which the creation of an effective cease-fire regime control mechanism impossible. And it is - is not carried out a clear and definitive demarcation between the armed groups, who are ready for a truce, and the jihadists, the conversation which is useless in principle. Even among those who have come to the talks in Astana, there is no unity and understanding of who is who, and to talk about such a mechanism directly on Syrian soil all the more premature.

At the same time Bashar Asad, according to the data series, and now agree on the creation of "zones of de-escalation" if they do not violate the territorial integrity of Syria and did not threaten him personally and his clan. And in Moscow emphasize that we should talk about is maintaining the integrity of Syria as a state, which, however, does not prevent a few adjust its internal structure in favor of greater decentralization of a number of constitutional guarantees of national and religious minorities. But the suggestions of a new Syrian constitution is not satisfied in the first place the opposition, which demands greater liberalization (not in the sense - more freedom and more liberal economy and polity in the Western sense), and the specific geographical and ethnic binding inevitably become the subject of trade.

From the point of view of international diplomatic practice introduction of peacekeeping forces of third countries will require some general plan approved by the United Nations, or at least a semblance of the mandate. Now the UN peacekeeping force "shift change" - it was replaced by the bosses, perhaps that will change and the concept of their formation. But in the narrow sense of the UN operation can not be carried out in Syria, but a kind of surgery that will still require a legal reinforcement.

In any case speak of a "conspiracy" between Moscow and Washington, or at least about the preparation for it is premature. Even in Astana, the US delegation has observer status, though close. And it is not clear what group Americans today have an impact. The variant that has anything to. In the end, Washington is not involved in the development of plans for recovery from the crisis, but only inflate the cheeks. But human rights or the country to maintain its image - the same inalienable as the right to freedom of expression. Sometimes you need to support and to complexes did not develop.

A source: LOOK

Author: Eugene Kroutikov

Tags: Russia, Turkey, Iran, Syria, the USA, China, Middle East, war in the Middle East, Politics, Research, International Relations, Terrorism, an IG