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11.05.2017 - 08: 11

Saudis and Iran: here and talked

The Minister of Defense of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Prints Muhammed Bin Salman speaking on national television said that the Kingdom is not going to wait until the war will come to Saudi Arabia ground. "We will make sure that the battle took place in Iran." At that the Minister of Defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran Hossa dehgans immediately replied that in the case of the Saudi aggression Tehran will erase from the face of all of Saudi Arabia under the net. Of course with the exception of two Muslim shrines. What it is called - here and talk.

However, in spite of the noise in the press before the war comes highly unlikely. It's not even that keen Saudi-Iranian confrontation in the Middle East lasts for more than a decade and a similar exchange demonstrative own coolness happening is not the first time. Everything is much easier. Kingdom and Iran are a common land border do not have that excludes the classic use of the main and perhaps the only trump sides - the Army. Also it is very limited landing options. Neither the Saudis nor the Iranians do not have any sufficient number of landing craft that can throw its military grouping required for successful land operations and then provide its logistics.

As I do not remember, but 70e - 90e years of the twentieth century, the average consumption of ITO was about a ton per person per day. This does not mean that every soldier is consumed so much. Directly infantryman spend no more than a hundred kilograms, including water, food and ammunition. But it had to provide artillery fire (consumption of shells and rockets) to cover aviation (shells consumption, rockets, bombs and other consumables), all it needed to maintain and repair, and delivery of petroleum products, including the expenditure of fuel in the process. In general, if we take the total weight of all the necessary grouping in military theater per unit time, divided by its number "in bayonets" then it receives approximately ton. All this must be constantly on something to carry. Fishing boats and pleasure boats are suitable for this purpose is very conditional. And nothing else well, Saudi Arabia or Iran does not.

The possibility of war in the territory of neighboring Iraq, too, appears to be extremely low. Iraq would not do it for sure. Especially considering the high degree of Iranian influence there. And the Saudis are well aware of the vulnerability of the rear communication in this case. Besides the actual fighting ability of the parties as mutually unknown. It is believed that the technical level of Saudi Arabia is much higher Iran. More precisely, since it was considered before the invasion in Yemen, where even in low intensity conflict against the format is essentially tribal rebel groups KSA army proved to be a very, very pale, but in fact there suffered defeat. Against this background, Riyadh some small, but certainly victorious war would be very handy, but with Iran this will not work accurately. Though he has not fought on a grand scale for more than quarter of a century (since the Iran-Iraq 1980-1988 years), and equipping his army does not look brilliant, however idly Tehran did not sit well. Plus the experience of fighting in Syria. Plus military-technical cooperation and personnel from Iraq. Plus strengthens friendship with Russia, including in the military field. According to some indirect data we can conclude that Moscow has five years as the good cooperation with the Iranian General Staff. Consequently, the overall combat capability of Iran precisely exceed that of Huthis that the Saudis lost.

So while it is only the loud political statements primarily for internal use. Operational maximum - a one-time exchange of rocket and bomb attacks. KSA will try to realize his advantage in aviation and Iran - in the operational-tactical missiles. In this case, the losses in missiles Tehran is absolutely immaterial, and losses on airplanes to Riyadh is very painful, and the ability of the Iranian air defense exactly neizvestny.Osobenno after the expansion of Russian-Iranian military-technical cooperation. Therefore, even a one-time coating, even with the American technical support (intelligence guidance, REB) also remains the most extreme asset to which even Saudis are reluctant to reach. All the more so with the recent history of rocket attacks KSA operational-tactical missiles from Yemen extreme Leaky Saudi air and missile defense demonstrated vividly.

The bottom line - only harsh rhetoric. On the other hand, it comes in handy when for the market does not need to immediately respond to real steps. However, it's good. Another major war in the Middle East, we are now not in cash.

A source: Comte

Author: Alexander Zapolskis

Tags: Saudi Arabia, Iran, the Middle East, War, Politics, International Relations, Research, War in the Middle East