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11.05.2017

Saudis and Iran: here and talked

The Minister of Defense of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Prints Muhammed Bin Salman speaking on national television said that the Kingdom is not going to wait until the war will come to Saudi Arabia ground. "We will make sure that the battle took place in Iran." At that the Minister of Defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran Hossa dehgans immediately replied that in the case of the Saudi aggression Tehran will erase from the face of all of Saudi Arabia under the net. Of course with the exception of two Muslim shrines. What it is called - here and talk.

However, despite the noise in the press, before the war comes very unlikely. The point here is not even that the sharp Saudi-Iranian confrontation in the Middle East has lasted for several decades and such a demonstrative exchange of its own coolness is not the first time. Everything is much simpler. The Kingdom and Iran have no common land border, which excludes the classical use of the main and perhaps the only trump card of the parties - the land forces. Also very limited are amphibious capabilities. Neither the Saudis nor the Iranians have any sufficient number of landing and landing facilities capable of transferring the military grouping necessary for successful land operations and then ensuring its material and technical supply.

As now I do not remember, but in 70 - 90e years of the XX century, the average consumption of the MTO was approximately one ton per person per day. This does not mean that every soldier consumed so much. Directly the infantryman spent not more than a hundred kilograms, including water, food and ammunition. But it needed to be provided with artillery fire (the expense of shells and missiles), covered by aviation (the consumption of shells, missiles, bombs, other consumables), all this needed maintenance and repair, as well as fuel delivery, including fuel consumption in the process. In general, if we take by weight the total volume of all the necessary army grouping on the theater of operations per unit time and divide by its number "in bayonets," then approximately a ton was obtained. All this must be constantly carried on something. Fishing boats and pleasure boats for these purposes are very conditional. And there is nothing else between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The possibility of war through the territory of neighboring Iraq also seems extremely low. Iraq will not do it for sure. Especially given the high degree of Iranian influence there. Yes, and the Saudis are well aware of the level of vulnerability of rear communications in this case. In addition, the real combat capabilities of the parties are also mutually unknown. It is believed that the technical level of Saudi Arabia is much higher than Iran's. More precisely, it was considered so before the invasion of Yemen, where even in a low-intensity conflict format against essentially rebel tribal groups, the KSA army showed itself very, very pale, and in fact suffered a defeat there. Against this background, Riyadh, any small, but certainly victorious war would be very useful, but with Iran this will not work out exactly. Although it did not fight for a long time already for more than a quarter of a century (since the Iran-Iraq 1980-1988 years), and the technical equipment of its army does not look so brilliant, nevertheless, Tehran did not sit idle too. Plus the experience of fighting in Syria. Plus, military-technical and personnel cooperation with Iraq. Plus, a growing friendship with Russia, including in the military field. According to some indirect data, it can be concluded that Moscow has been cooperating well with the Iranian General Staff for five years now. Therefore, Iran's general combat capabilities are exactly superior to the same indicator of husits ​​that the Saudis lost.

So while it is only a matter of loud political statements, primarily for internal use. The operational maximum is a one-time exchange of missile and bomb strikes. CSA will try to realize its advantage in aviation, and Iran - in operational and tactical missiles. At the same time, missile losses for Tehran are insignificant, and losses in airplanes for Riyadh are very painful, and the possibilities of Iranian air defense are not known exactly. Especially after the expansion of Russian-Iranian military-technical cooperation. So even a one-time raid, even with American technical support (intelligence, guidance, EW) is also the most extreme trump card, to which even the Saudis are not eager to reach. Especially since the recent story of the rocket fire of KSA with operational and tactical missiles from Yemen, the extreme holes in the Saudi air defense and missile defense demonstrated with all the clarity.

The bottom line - only harsh rhetoric. On the other hand, it comes in handy when for the market does not need to immediately respond to real steps. However, it's good. Another major war in the Middle East, we are now not in cash.

A source: Comte

Author: Alexander Zapolskis

Tags: Saudi Arabia, Iran, the Middle East, War, Politics, International Relations, Research, War in the Middle East