Redzhep Erdogan won a referendum to change Turkey's constitution. Now, the country will become a presidential republic. Erdogan himself said that much power he needed to modernize the country and his opponents accuse him of trying to establish a dictatorship in it. To what extent is the increasing power of Erdogan meets Russia's interests?
Two years later, Turkey will become a presidential republic. Elected in 2019, the head of state will have full executive powers, including to lead the government.
Prime Ministers in Turkey will no longer be (and it is in their hands most of the nearly hundred-year history of the republic and the major powers guiding focused). And Erdogan ten years was the prime minister (before in 2014-m elected president). It was the first direct presidential election in the history of Turkey, the transition to which was already part of Erdogan's plan to concentrate power in the hands of the head of state. To change the final reform of the constitution was necessary. MPs supported the reform only in January this year, after which it was put to a referendum.
Albeit with a very small margin, but the majority of people agree with the reform, and now Turkey will become a presidential republic. And he Erdogan may run for president in elections 2019 year for the first time and, if successful, to try to get re-elected and 2024-m, ie the right to 2029 years. Then he will 75 years - is not the age for retirement.
But a long tradition, almost a lifetime of power is natural for Turkey, and Erdogan is an alternative to military rule, rather than an abstract European-style democracy. Erdogan, by the way, this is democracy - because it is supported by the majority of voters. Their "guilt" only what they consider Islamic traditions are more important for the country than the entry to Europe, or the imitation of her. Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey since March 2003 year only reflects the will of the people. Substantial part of it - because among voters against the constitution reforms were not only opponents of Islamization, but also those who just can not stomach Erdogan personally. A policy of strong state support many.
Turkish Republic emerged as a splinter of the Ottoman Caliphate - the last Caliphate that existed on Earth (now LIH * tries to put himself just a new "caliphate"). At the head was the caliph - that is the leader of all Muslims on earth - he wore a secular title of Sultan. Sultan lost power in 1920-m, completely abolished the caliphate in 1924-m, but in fact since 1920-1938-th to first new country, Turkey has lost its extensive holdings in the Arab world, led by Ataturk. He has made Turkey a secular. Islam was though not forbidden, but backed into a semi-underground, from which it was able to escape only 80-e.
After Atatürk's death led the country of his colleague Ismet Inenyu, who died in 1973-m. No, not the general rule all 35 years, but retired from politics a year before his death, in 88-age ceased to be the leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP). And İnönü was president until 1950 years, then the Prime Minister in the first half of 60-x. Turkey was ruled by generals. More precisely, they directed it. Elections were held, the authorities succeeded each other two parties, but if politicians flirted, would lead the country to where the generals did not need to, or simply could not agree - followed by a military coup. So it was in 1960-m, and then in 1980-m.
In the 1997-m military forced to resign from the government of Prime Minister Erbakan, who took a course on Islamization. One of the leaders of the Party of Erbakan Redzhep Erdogan was then the mayor of Istanbul and a few months ended up in jail. Five years later, his party won the election, the year after he became prime minister, and for nearly half a decade is seriously reformed Turkey.
The authorities are now Muslims, do not hide their faith. The military pushed from power - Erdogan smashed several plots and changed the place and role of the Turkish army in the political life of the country. This allowed him to amass a lot of power, and now the question arose about how he will use it.
What is important for Russia? We are interested in a stable domestic political situation in Turkey and the fact that it carried out its own foreign policy. Erdogan's victory serves as whether these two goals? Rather yes than no.
Firstly, whether the current reform will lead to stability in Turkey or, on the contrary, it will be an occasion for the aggravation of the internal contradictions? The conflict between the secular-oriented Europe, part of the Turkish society and its Islamic component is still here. As with all kinds of ethnic conflicts, especially with the Kurds, mostly of Turkish ethnic minority. Yet an attempt to destabilize the Kurdish problem - which in the case of its full blast leaves no chances for the existence of modern Turkey - is unrealistic.
Another thing is that here we have a new opponent of Erdogan - Gulen structures that promote "Islamic education", prove to be firmly focused on external forces. And it is not only the living in the US Gülen, but also all sorts of islamovidnye education, who like to play Western intelligence agencies. If earlier (starting with the Young Turks and Ataturk) main channel of Western influence on Turkey were the military elite, now Erdogan will have to deal with vnutriislamskimi "agents of influence".
But with all the issues understandable and obvious opponents Erdogan has a good chance to go to the consolidation policy of the majority of Turkish society. Especially if he can demonstrate the success of its foreign policy. Which now has two main themes - a war in Syria and the European Union. Both of these topics directly concerning Russia.
The Syrian war is very important for Turkey. Erdogan to finish it so that his country was not in the worst geopolitical position than before it began. That is to say Damascus must be non-adversarial mode (some, however, and was Asad), and, more importantly, the Syrian Kurds should have control over as much as possible at a part of the territory along the Turkish border. To do all this is easiest with Russia and Iran, Putin and Erdogan offers.
Although in November 2015-th Erdogan paid a "stab in the back" by shooting down our Su-24, after what happened last summer, reconciliation and the beginning of a tripartite coordination between Moscow, Tehran and Ankara can hope that the three countries will be able to conduct business Syria settlement together. At least, the chances of that are.
The main thing that Erdogan again not tried to play on the US-Russian contradictions - he was trying to do in the story of Su-24. And for that Erdogan need to feel confident both domestically and in the international arena. The suppression of the coup, together with the victory in the referendum have to give him the first, and steady contact with Vladimir Putin - the second.
Russia is not an ally of Turkey, we have a point of competition, including the not so healthy (for example, Azerbaijan and Central Asia) - but we have a huge number of matching or complementary interests. If we can together (ie, in coordination, not in conflict) to hold the Syrian settlement - the most dangerous area in bilateral relations will be passed. And then the two-way trade, which has huge potential, and mutual investment, and tourism, "Turkish Stream" - it will work in the interests of both nations.
By Erdogan here it depends very much - and, more importantly, holding turetskotsentrichnoy policy. That is, Turkey must stop to yield to provocations, to get involved in other people's games. For example, Ankara wanted to become the leader of the Arab Spring, but saw in it an element of the game to destabilize the western region. Turkey has played with the European Union - knowing that it will never be in the EU. Now Erdogan can close the chapter of forty "entry" into Europe, establishing relations with the EU on a new basis. Including using the proposed Russian variant of major energy player - with the construction of "Turkish stream".
Erdogan may be referred to the Sultan, but it will be just as unfair as calling Vladimira Putina king. The West in general like to compare the two presidents write that Erdogan imitate Putin learns from it - but it says more about the West than about Putin and Erdogan. Russian and Turks centuries for Europeans play the role of "the terrible alien aggressor" who occasionally frightening, sticking out the religious ideology (Islam or communism) state (empire or caliphate) or national (Slavs and Turks) cause.
In reality, Russia and Turkey have one big common problem: they need to live completely your mind, not looking at Europe and the West. And that Erdogan has increasingly mimics Vladimir Putin.