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Syria: the expected sensation ...

The main actors of the Syrian conflict are ready, if not to the section as well as to the federalization of the future of Syria.

A year ago, the global structure of the Syrian conflict was simple enough. Russian troops and legitimate president Bashar al-Assad (they are on military maps represent red) opposed to US interests in the country. The main military ally of the US were not so lightly managed, though many groups of the Syrian opposition and the Kurds. Which in recent years have created if not sovereign, then certainly an autonomous quasi-state Rozhavu in northern Syria. On the map - brown.

Last summer, the game directly intervened Turkey, entering his troops to the north of the province of Aleppo and picked up his allies a significant part of the Syrian Muslim Sunni opposition. Green colour.

"Red", "brown" and "green" its official designated enemy radicals from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (LIH, the Caliphate) (an organization whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation), color - black. "Black" resist very impressive, but the force is clearly not equal, so their open military confrontation is clearly coming to an end. The radicals soon go underground, and methods of terror still bring a lot of headaches and the Americans, and Russian, and Europeans.

LIH (organization, whose activities are prohibited in Russia) obviously gone (although not a fact), but Syria, a key region of the Middle East remain. In what format - this is the main intrigue of the day. And as the world eagerly discussing, for example, the Israeli bombing in the south and in the center of Syria, in the north of the country, in Aleppo (Aleppo), there are events that change the format itself intrigue.

Let me remind you. Kurdish as "self", but "proclaimed" autonomy Rozhava consists of two united cantons (provinces) - Hasakah and Jazeera (northeast Syria), as well as two enclaves: Afrin north-west and a small quarter of Sheikh Maqsud in city ​​of Aleppo. Combining Afrin in the north-east "matrix" - a military-political dream of the Kurds.

So last year they ignored the desire of its American allies and did not actively attack the Syrian capital LIH (organization, whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation) - Raqqa on the Euphrates. Instead, they crossed to the west bank of the Euphrates, squeezed out of the Caliphate Manbizhda, one of the key cities in the region, and rushed to the west, in the direction of Afrin.

This prompted Turkey, whose political interests prevent association Syrian Kurds last summer to introduce its troops into northern Syria and "drive a wedge" between Afrin and "matrix Rozhavoy". Together with its allies in the Syrian "moderate opposition" they squeezed LIH (organization, whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation) from another key point Aleppo Province - El Baba. Now in this region Ankara creates a "security zone", which has the potential to become an independent and quasi-state formation of Damascus.

Thus, the dream of "brown" for their connection became unenforceable cantons: Kurds are not able to attack the Turkish army. But the prerequisites for joint action by the Kurds and the "red" Russian-basharovtsev. What happened ... Assad's troops, which the Turks have not admitted to Al-Baba, turned to the east, broke through to the Euphrates, and went out to the areas that control the Kurds.

Thus, the "red" and "brown" did not give already fulfilled the Turkish political dream: to take part in the capture of Raqqa to a solid foot and a long time to get up in the territory of central Syria. Now for that Turkey should join in an armed conflict not only with the Kurds, but also with the "red" (and therefore - and the Military Space Forces of Russia), and to that Ankara is clearly not ready.

But the Kurds are ready to deal. They are not only voluntarily surrendered "red" several settlements between manbij and El-Bab, thereby strengthening the position of basharovtsev and Russian.They seem willing to move from latent forms of cooperation with the Russian (they are always) to the open alliance!

March 20 agency "Al-Masdar," said: "The Russian military will establish a new base in the Kurdish region of Afrin in northern Syria in accordance with the agreement previously reached with the YPG (troops of the interim government of the Syrian Kurdistan). The source of the YPG, on condition of anonymity, said that an agreement was reached to establish a military base in the village of Kafr Gianna. The base is designed to protect Afrin ".

This message could not even notice if the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation as a very fast and originally not hastened to refute it. "No plans for the deployment of new Russian military bases on the territory of Syria" - the ministry said. But added that in order to prevent violations of the cease-fire, one of the units of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the warring parties will be located in the province of Aleppo, near Afrin, in the contact area of ​​the Kurdish militias and the formation of the Free Syrian Army, controlled by the Turkish side.

But for pity's sake! Himself Russian Center is located in the shadow of Russian aircraft in the territory of the military base Hmeymim and at any time ready for defensive and offensive operations to the territory of the province of Latakia. Runway in the village of Kafr Janna, of course not. But for the "Night Hunter" (attack helicopters Mi-28) it is not necessary, and the Russian armored vehicles in Afrin already introduced. That is, Tass said, about the same as that of Al-Masdar.

Thus, the Russian take on the guarantee for the protection of the Kurdish statehood in Afrin province, an enclave of Kurdish autonomy Rozhava. What does this mean?

  • The Kurds are willing to put relations with the Russian Federation of the hidden means of an open format in military cooperation, this willingness and mutual.
  • Americans are not opposed to the prospects of Russian-Kurdish military and political rapprochement; otherwise the State Department and the US media would have already shaking explosions of indignation and threats.
  • Legitimate Damascus is also ready to cooperate with the Kurdistan Region. Vo-pervyh, such examples have already taken place, and vo-vtoryh, he has no way out - even if forced, but friendly relations with Rozhavoy for it is better than having the Kurds, along with the opposition, Turkey, LIH (organization, activities which is prohibited in the Russian Federation) and the USA as part of enemies of the regime.

And from the fourth and unpleasant:the main actors of the Syrian conflict are ready, if not to the section as well as to the federalization of the future of Syria.

A source: A REGNUM

Author: Andrew Ganzha

Tags: Syria, the war in the Middle East, Analysis, Politics, Kurds, Turkey, Russia, the IG, the US fighters