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14.05.2017 - 07: 32

Agreement Hauran. The threat of a new war in the south of Syria

Will Korol Abdalla resist trying to push him to Damascus?

Last month was marked by a surge in the information war between Syria and Jordan. Such a deterioration in bilateral relations with mutual attacks and accusations were not 1982, when after the bloody suppression of the Syrian armed rebellion "Muslim Brotherhood" in Hama, King Hussein of Jordan has publicly condemned the actions of Damascus, and took a delegation of the Syrian "brothers".

Now Damascus accuses authorities of the Hashemite Kingdom of trying to enter the Jordanian forces in the Syrian province of Deraa, under the pretext of combating terrorism "Islamic State" and "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham," (formerly "Dzhabhat en-Nusra") and even take part in Syria section. Judging by the information coming from the south of Syria, accusations are not groundless.

In an interview with the Russian news agency "Sputnik" on April 21 Syrian President Bashar Asad stressed that in Jordan is preparing an invasion of the southern areas of CAP in the framework of the plan developed by the United States. Further, going beyond diplomatic protocol, he said that "Jordan is not a state and a territory that does not have self-control with which the enemies of our country carry out hostile Syria plans and are sending us terrorists." In response, the information minister of Jordan, Dr. Mohammed Al-Mamun rejected accusations of Syrian President as "unacceptable and unrealistic," noting that "funny to hear doubts about the sovereignty of Jordan by President Assad, who does not control a large part of the Syrian territory." Jordan, told Al-Mamun, "is forced to defend his northern flank of the terrorists entrenched on Syrian soil."

The Cold War between the two Arab states imperceptibly turns into a hot one. 9 May the formation of the Syrian armed opposition based in Jordan along the Syrian border, notified that were bombed Syrian air force.

Since 2012, the Jordanian security services have supported the so-called "Southern Front" - loose conglomerate of "moderate" faction of the armed opposition in Deraa province. In Amman with 2014 has been operating the operational headquarters of the "Southern Front", who oversees the Jordanian military, CIA representatives and British intelligence MI-6. In the autumn of the year 2016 militants "Islamic state" (IG) was able to apply "reasonable" number of serious injuries. At the same time here has intensified its activities "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" win over many of the militants' southern front. " Judging by the Lebanese information sources, and this situation is going to take advantage of the US administration to create a buffer zone in the south of Syria, on the model of the one that with the help of Syrian Kurds Americans make in the north of the country.

According to the Lebanese newspaper "Al-Akhbar" moderate opposition groups in the province of Deraa, namely "Jaish al-ashair", "Farik Al-haqq" and "Farik Al-Shabab Al-Sunnah" is now heavily armed and trained in camps Jordanian territory. The plans of the Jordanian command, according to the newspaper, includes intervention in Syria, according to the type of the south, which has taken in Turkey in the framework of "Operation Euphrates Shield" last year. Just as did the Turks, the Jordanians would justify their offensive in Syria struggle against the IG and "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham." Especially that the terrorist threat the northern areas of the Jordan, in fact, evident, as demonstrated by last year's December events in Kerak, where gunmen killed six officers of IG Jordanian security and a tourist.

The main objective of this operation is output to the border point of Al Bu Kamal, covering the southern portion of the Syrian-Iraqi border. At the same time the Jordanians and their allies will have to master the Yarmouk River basin and enter the Syrian portion of the Golan Heights, close to the border with Israel by armed groups "Hezbollah" and Iranian instructors from the IRGC. In case of success in the area of ​​influence of Jordan depart Deraa province of Quneitra and maybe Druze Suwayda region.

Lebanese journalists point out that in the future Jordanian expeditionary corps present military instructors from the US and the UK, and the United States and British military intelligence already in Deraa province among the militants "Southern Front".

Thus, in addition to American instructors operating in northern Syria in the ranks, led by Kurds SDS (Syrian Democratic Forces), the US military presence is outlined in the south of the country that just fits into the plans cantonization (section) of Syria, matured Trump administration. Already there have been attempts to institutionalize such cantonization. This is evidenced by the newly emerged a document entitled "Agreement Hauran" (Hauran - the traditional name for the southern regions of Syria, especially Deraa and Quneitra). The paper proposed a kind of constitution of the southern areas of Syria after being expelled from there jihadists.

"Agreement Hauran" provides the de facto secession of southern Syria. It was signed 22 Syrian opposition, the natives of the region, now operating from Istanbul. Among them - known university professors and lawyers. Prior to the Syrian turmoil province of Deraa and Quneitra (Hauran region) were among the most loyal to Damascus; although the majority of the population is Sunni, no Islamist sentiment has not mentioned about 30% of the population were members of the Baath Party. Great was the percentage of officers of the Syrian Arab Army. Come from Hauran is vice president of CAP Farouk Al-Shara, a former prime minister of Syria Wael al-Halki, a former information minister Omran Zueybi, former chief editor of the newspaper "Al-Thawra" and "Tishrin" Mohammed al-Wadi. Great damage to the prestige of the government of Bashar al-Assad paid a punishment of teenagers who wrote anti-government graffiti, with which began, in fact, the history of the current Syrian unrest. The government at the time did not punish properly the secret services and the local governor, responsible for the massacre, and opponents of Assad skillfully used the existing in Deraa disagreement about the annual distribution of agricultural land.

At the same time the "Agreement Hauran" condemned such prominent opposition leaders and the natives of this land as Heysam Al-Manna, dissident and human rights activist, who lives with 1982, in Paris, and an influential businessman Khaled al-Mahamid. In their view, any change in the political system of the country should be made by all Syrians, not the individual provinces. Both opposition were in favor of the unconditional preservation of the territorial integrity of Syria.

While it is difficult to predict how it will develop further political and military conflict in the south of Syria, but there is a desire in Washington "lop" of its territory, cut off from this Arab country's northern Kurdish areas and possibly Deir ez-Zor and Hauran in the south. Pretty dangerous idea, leading to an increase in the total chaos in the Middle East.

As for Amman, there seems to be ready for a military escalation on the Jordanian-Syrian border. Reported concentration on the borders between the SAR and the Hashemite Kingdom of armed groups in the composition of the army units from Jordan, the US and the UK, equipped with tanks "Challenger" and combat helicopters "Cobra" and "Black Hawk". This is in addition to the thousands of Syrian militants 4, trainees on Jordanian territory by US military advisers.

The main question: whether Korol Abdalla can withstand external forces trying to push him to Damascus?

A source: Strategic Culture Foundation

Author: Aleksandr Kuznetsov

Tags: Syria, the war in the Middle East, Jordan, Middle East, Research, Action, USA