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Agreement Hauran. The threat of a new war in the south of Syria

Will Korol Abdalla resist trying to push him to Damascus?

Last month was marked by a surge in the information war between Syria and Jordan. Such a deterioration in bilateral relations with mutual attacks and accusations were not 1982, when after the bloody suppression of the Syrian armed rebellion "Muslim Brotherhood" in Hama, King Hussein of Jordan has publicly condemned the actions of Damascus, and took a delegation of the Syrian "brothers".

Now Damascus accuses authorities of the Hashemite Kingdom of trying to enter the Jordanian forces in the Syrian province of Deraa, under the pretext of combating terrorism "Islamic State" and "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham," (formerly "Dzhabhat en-Nusra") and even take part in Syria section. Judging by the information coming from the south of Syria, accusations are not groundless.

In an interview with the Russian "Sputnik" agency 21 April, Syrian President Bashar Assad stressed that an invasion of the southern regions of the Syrian Arab Republic is being prepared from the territory of Jordan as part of a plan developed in the United States. Then, going beyond the diplomatic protocol, he stated that "Jordan is not a state, but a territory that does not have independent government, with which enemies of our state carry out plans hostile to Syria and send terrorists to us." In response, the Jordanian Minister of Information, Dr. Mohammed al-Mamouni, dismissed the Syrian president's accusations as "unacceptable and detached from reality," noting that "it's ridiculous to hear doubts about Jordan's sovereignty from President Assad, who does not control most of Syria's territory." Jordan, said al-Mamuni, "is forced to defend its northern flank from terrorists rooted in Syrian soil."

The Cold War between the two Arab states imperceptibly turns into a hot one. 9 May the formation of the Syrian armed opposition based in Jordan along the Syrian border, notified that were bombed Syrian air force.

Since 2012, the Jordanian special services have been supporting the so-called "Southern Front" - a loose conglomeration of "moderate" groups of armed opposition in the province of Deraa. In Amman, from 2014, the operational headquarters of the "Southern Front", which is supervised by the Jordanian military, representatives of the CIA and British intelligence MI-6. In autumn 2016, the militants of the Islamic State (IG) managed to inflict a "moderate" number of serious defeats. At the same time, the "Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham" activist has been activated here, which has enticed many militants of the "Southern Front" to their side. Judging by the information provided by Lebanese sources, the US administration is going to use this situation to create a buffer zone in southern Syria, modeled on the one that the Americans create in the north of the country with the help of Syrian Kurds.

According to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Ahbar, the moderate opposition groupings in the Deraa province, namely, Jaysh Al-Ashair, Farik al-hakk and Farik al-Shabab Al-Sunnah, are now heavily armed and trained in the camps at territory of Jordan. The plans of the Jordanian command, in the opinion of the newspaper, include intervention to the south of Syria in the type that Turkey undertook last year in the framework of the operation "Shield of the Euphrates." Just like the Turks did, the Jordanians will justify their offensive in Syria by fighting against the IG and "Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham." Moreover, the terrorist threat to the northern regions of Jordan is indeed palpable, as last year's December events in Kerak showed, where the IG gunmen killed six members of the Jordanian security service and one tourist.

The main objective of this operation is output to the border point of Al Bu Kamal, covering the southern portion of the Syrian-Iraqi border. At the same time the Jordanians and their allies will have to master the Yarmouk River basin and enter the Syrian portion of the Golan Heights, close to the border with Israel by armed groups "Hezbollah" and Iranian instructors from the IRGC. In case of success in the area of ​​influence of Jordan depart Deraa province of Quneitra and maybe Druze Suwayda region.

Lebanese journalists point out that in the future Jordanian expeditionary corps present military instructors from the US and the UK, and the United States and British military intelligence already in Deraa province among the militants "Southern Front".

Thus, in addition to American instructors operating in the north of Syria in the ranks led by the Kurds of the SDS (Syrian Democratic Forces), the US military presence will be identified in the south of the country, which fits into the plans for the cantonization of Syria, ripened in the Trump administration. There are already attempts to institutionalize such cantonization. This is evidenced by a recently appeared document called the "Khauran Agreement" (Khauran is the traditional name for the southern regions of Syria, primarily Deraa and Kuneitra). The document suggests something like a constitution of the southern regions of Syria after the expulsion of jihadists from there.

"The agreement of Khauran" provides for the actual separation of southern Syria. It was signed by 22 Syrian oppositionists, natives of this region, now operating from Istanbul. Among them there are well-known university teachers and lawyers. Before the Syrian troubles of the province of Deraa and Kuneitra (Hauran region) were among the most loyal to Damascus; although the majority of the population here are Sunnis, there were no Islamist attitudes, about 30% of the population were members of the Baath Party. Great was also the percentage of officers of the Syrian Arab Army. The aliens from Khauran are the vice-president of SAR Faruk ash-Sharaa, the former Prime Minister of Syria Vael Al-Khalki, the former Minister of Information Omran Zuaybi, the former chief editor of the newspapers Al-Saura and Tishrin Muhammad al-Wadi. The great damage to the prestige of the government of Bashar Assad dealt with reprisals against teenagers who wrote anti-government graffiti, from which the history of the current Syrian troubles began. The government at that time did not properly punish the special services and the local governor who were responsible for the massacre, and the opponents of Asad skillfully used the disagreements in Deraa about the annual distribution of agricultural land.

At the same time the "Agreement Hauran" condemned such prominent opposition leaders and the natives of this land as Heysam Al-Manna, dissident and human rights activist, who lives with 1982, in Paris, and an influential businessman Khaled al-Mahamid. In their view, any change in the political system of the country should be made by all Syrians, not the individual provinces. Both opposition were in favor of the unconditional preservation of the territorial integrity of Syria.

While it is difficult to predict how it will develop further political and military conflict in the south of Syria, but there is a desire in Washington "lop" of its territory, cut off from this Arab country's northern Kurdish areas and possibly Deir ez-Zor and Hauran in the south. Pretty dangerous idea, leading to an increase in the total chaos in the Middle East.

As for Amman, there seems to be ready for a military escalation on the Jordanian-Syrian border. Reported concentration on the borders between the SAR and the Hashemite Kingdom of armed groups in the composition of the army units from Jordan, the US and the UK, equipped with tanks "Challenger" and combat helicopters "Cobra" and "Black Hawk". This is in addition to the thousands of Syrian militants 4, trainees on Jordanian territory by US military advisers.

The main question: whether Korol Abdalla can withstand external forces trying to push him to Damascus?

A source: Strategic Culture Foundation

Author: Aleksandr Kuznetsov

Tags: Syria, the war in the Middle East, Jordan, Middle East, Research, Action, USA

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