The OPEC + agreement on oil production reduction proved its effectiveness - at least for Russia. Despite all the negative factors, statistics show that the Russian budget has fairly benefited from rising oil prices. Indicators of government revenues were much higher than it was planned a year ago.
Russia's revenues from oil exports increased by 1,5 times (by 54%) for the first four months of the year. According to the Federal Customs Service (FCS), they amounted to 30,4 billion dollars. At the same time, in physical terms, oil exports grew by only 2% to 82,5 million tons. Export of oil products, by the way, also increased almost 1,6 times to 20,8 billion dollars, although in physical terms - by less than 1%.
So, the average price of Urals oil in January-May 2017 amounted to 51,29 dollars per barrel. For comparison: in the same period 2016 year it cost only 36 dollars per barrel. That is, Russian oil has risen in price this year by 15 dollars or by 42% compared to the beginning of last year.
"The growth in revenues from oil exports correlates with the price of oil directly," said Kirill Yakovenko of Alor Broker. All this is a concrete result of the actions of the OPEC agreement, in which our country played one of the key roles. Already in April, Russia cut production for planned 300 thousand barrels, and in general, OPEC members reduced oil production by 7% of daily production in October 2016.
At the end of 2016, oil grew mainly on the expectation that the OPEC agreement could radically change the supply-demand ratio in the world market. These expectations were justified only in part - there was no explosive price increase, but they became much more stable and still somewhat higher. Now the agreement has been extended, and it does not cause a rise in quotations again. On the other hand, the agreement is opposed to factors that threaten to again collapse the price of oil. First, it is the growing volume of shale oil production in the US, and secondly, the strengthening of the dollar.
Increased oil prices also affected gas export revenues, which grew by 15,3% to 12,429 billion dollars in the first four months. In physical terms, growth is less - by 9,7% to 72,6 billion cubic meters. However, in the gas sector, the main benefits from rising oil prices and OPEC agreements are yet to come, as gas prices are recalculated with a lag of 6-9 months.
Export earnings for gas are also growing due to increased demand. Neither geopolitical tensions nor rising prices prevent Europe from buying a record amount of Russian gas. Last year, Gazprom set a record for exports to non-CIS countries at the level of 179,3 billion cubic meters (almost 20 billion cubic meters more than in 2015). The plan for this year is also impressive - 178 billion cubic meters. However, the first months of the year indicate that Gazprom can overfulfill this plan and deliver to Europe all 180 billion cubic meters. The growth is explained, firstly, by the fact that Russian gas is delivered to Ukraine through the European intermediaries by a reverse. The second reason is the growing demand of European consumers and specifically for Russian gas. Despite the EU's policy of diversifying supplies, in the first four months of the year 2017, an increase in demand is observed in Germany and Italy, as well as in Turkey and the United Kingdom.
Qatari LNG, for example, does not use such demand in Europe. Although the same Poland and Latvia opened their LNG terminals and began to declare the rejection of Russian gas. If in the result of the escalation of the conflict around Qatar, the problems with LNG supplies begin, Gazprom will accurately beat records on the volume of exports to Europe.
The other side of the coin lies in the fact that the process of reducing the share of oil and gas revenues that began, was halted. Already in the first quarter of 2017, the share of oil and gas revenues again increased to 50%, said the head of the Ministry of Energy Alexander Novak.
But, according to the amendments to the budget for 2017 year, budget revenues increase by 1,2 trillion rubles. Expenditures will not grow as much, only by 360 billion rubles. Therefore, this year the budget deficit will not be 3,2% of GDP, as planned, but only 2,1% of GDP. All this is also the result of the agreement to reduce OPEC + oil production, without which it was impossible at least to maintain current oil prices - above 40 dollars per barrel.
Plus this year began to bear fruit of effective work of tax authorities. They manage to collect much more taxes now than before.
In the Accounts Chamber, however, it was pointed out that the budget could not receive 205 billion rubles in revenues in the form of dividends from state companies. Just because the government will not have time to make a decision before June 30 that state companies should pay not 25% (as now), but 50% of revenues to the federal budget.
But they will help, as always. oil and gas. According to the Ministry of Finance, the oil and gas revenues of the budget in the 2017 year will increase in comparison with the current law on the budget for 719 billion rubles. With the same rate and oil prices, as now, the budget will be able to get another billion rubles more for 120-130 rubles in the form of oil and gas revenues, the head of the Accounts Chamber, Tatyana Golikova, believes. Another 200-250 billion rubles in addition will bring taxes. In sum, these articles will give rise to budget revenues of more than 1 trillion rubles.