Instead of Americans in Syria will fight the Arabs - at least, reports of this began to appear in the Western press. Should we believe such statements - and why should Americans leave Syria, leaving allies in the Arab world instead of themselves?
Washington "is trying to assemble Arab forces to replace the US military contingent in Syria with the aim of facilitating stabilization in the northern part of the country after the defeat of IGIL," the Wall Street Journal reported citing a source among US officials.
Assistant to the US President for National Security John Bolton has already contacted the head of Egypt's intelligence and asked whether Cairo can help in the implementation of this plan, the portal said. In addition, Washington appealed to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE so that they not only allocated funds for the restoration of northern Syria, but also sent troops there.
The region in question is a territory controlled by the pro-American groups of the so-called moderate opposition, primarily the Kurdish "Syrian Democratic Forces". At the same time, there is actually forming a new state formation - the Federation of Northern Syria. That's where the Americans try to attract Arab money and troops.
Recall that at the end of March, and then in early April, Donald Trump unexpectedly began to say that the Americans would leave Syria very soon, which would not only ruffle not only the allies, but even their own administration. At the same time, Trump accompanied his words with an offer to the Arabs to pay if they want American troops to stay in Syria. However, then there were reports that the advisers allegedly succeeded in persuading Trump, and then there was a blow to Syria. However, on Monday, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said that the US president still insists on the withdrawal of US troops from Syria. According to her, Trump "very clearly stated that he wants the US troops to return home as soon as possible." However, "we are determined to completely crush the IG * and create conditions that will not allow them (militants of the group) to return," Sanders said.
The search for a replacement in the person of Arab military personnel may indicate that Washington is really seriously considering the idea of withdrawing American troops from Syria. Chief researcher of the Center for Arab Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Isaev is sure that the appeal of Americans to the Arabs is explained precisely by Trump's statement about the soon withdrawal of troops from Syria. "On the other hand, Trump said that the US will not leave until it has fulfilled certain tasks. He got into such a fork - on the one hand, it is necessary to withdraw troops, and on the other - to leave certain forces under control, "Isaev told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"Negotiations will be long, and I do not think that they will lead to a serious replacement of the American army by Arabs," the expert said, explaining that the Arabs themselves would not agree to such a replacement. "The combat readiness of the armies, which the US is being addressed, to put it mildly, is in doubt. Look at the results of the same coalition led by Saudi Arabia in Yemen. Qatar's army is completely incompetent, and the Egyptian will deny the Americans for the reason that it has good relations with Russia, and to aggravate relations with the same Iran or Turkey is completely useless, "the interlocutor stressed.
In turn, an expert on the Middle East of the Russian Council for International Affairs (INF) Sergei Balmasov called the US initiative anecdotal. "This is a blatant change in the course of American foreign policy. Today they will say so, and tomorrow - in a different way, "Balmasov told VZGLYAD.
The expert believes that the Americans in Syria "have nothing to do" and they want to "collect chestnuts" with the hands of their satellites. He pointed out that the countries the US wants to address to can not cope with their problems, and they will hardly want to interfere in the Syrian conflict - "Egypt has problems with Sinai, the Emirates are stuck in Yemen."
"With all due respect to the Egyptians, the Saudis, Qatar - it is doubtful that they will conduct American interests in Syria and protect the Kurds, who are formally under the American umbrella. The Saudis have very little power, in order to additionally open the Syrian front, "Balmasov said. However, he does not rule out that Americans can use as a mercenary a couple of divisions from the Arabs, "but it's unlikely that this will have a strong effect."
Balmasov did not rule out that this could in general be a propaganda throwing of the American media, which would give the US the opportunity to press on the countries of the Arab world. "Someday the US will leave there, but now there are many questions, how it can happen. We remember how the Americans left South Vietnam, after which there was a collapse. Is it worth doing this now to Trump? On him immediately hang all dogs, that he surrendered interests in the region. Another thing is that it is possible to bargain with Iran and Russia, with the same Saudi Arabia, "the expert suggested.