Selected US Donald President Trump strategy, in which it makes its partners and opponents of such an offer you can not refuse, perhaps, to be effective in the business world, but it is extremely dangerous in the international arena, says Kyle Springer in an article for The Strategist.
The author proposes to consider the situation in which someone is knocking at the door of the house and said to his master that he would burn his house down. If the unfortunate residents believe that the threat of not unreasonably, his first reaction will be to find ways to save their homes. Those who expressed this threat, gets great bargaining position, causing his victim to move quickly in a crisis mode of thinking. Then he can go to the discharge and to declare that the house he would not burn, but instead will take all the things from the living room. Such an option for victims of skilful negotiator may be far more acceptable than losing the house.
In this way, the author stresses, is best illustrated negotiating strategy Trump. It can be most obviously seen in his campaign rhetoric on examples such as the prohibition of entry into the US people from a number of Islamic countries in the event of allegations of NATO's "out of date", as well as attacks on the trade agreements, a system like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP) and North American free trade area.
Now, after he took his seat in the White House, you can once again witness such behavior, particularly in regard to its tense talks with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, in which Republican President said about the possibility of giving up entered into with the previous administration to resettle refugees in the US agreement. Then Trump called the treaty "the worst ever deal prisoners".
Sharp style of doing things to the point of confrontation played into the hands of Trump when he was a businessman in the unforgiving world of the weakness of the real estate New York, but this approach will not work so well in the international arena. Instead of promoting a strategy to safe limits, Trump rushes to the edge and pushed back their opponents. Once in such a situation, according to Trump, they will panic and reveal the card, after which Trump will take them from the brink on its own terms.
This strategy is effective, moreover, fortunately for Trump, it does not require a special finesse. However, this approach and is associated with certain risks. In particular, if in the above situation, the one who threatened to burn the house down, will threaten all day he would have to confirm the words with deeds, otherwise there is a problem of reliability of his statements. It is such a problem faced Trump on domestic and foreign policy arenas.
It may be that, depending on its understanding of the external factors will arsonist himself in the same house with his victim. And that this is the way to face a rigid strategy Trump - to understand what he is really capable of, and threats to keep it on the basis of its limitations and identify its weaknesses, from the political point of view, the location.
Trump's negotiating strategy was evident in the case of TTP, from which he emerged in his very first day in the White House, having carried out its election threat. Since this is a trade agreement can not enter into force without ratification by the United States and Japan, the president of Trump, in fact, "he burnt the house." He has not given up completely on trade with Japan, as the White House issued a bilateral trade agreement with Japan.
However, this development is unprofitable Tokyo, since now the island nation will have a new way to negotiate with an administration that advocates for jobs and production in the United States, and expresses skepticism about international trade. Here Trump faces the political constraints of what he can achieve in terms of a bilateral deal with Japan, since Tokyo are important agriculture and automobile manufacturing.
If Trump really uses this strategy to promote their preference for bilateral trade in Asia, so Japan is best to deny Republican president in his victory early and prevent its approach to diplomacy, built on the transactions.
Japan and other US partners in Asia should avoid bilateral proposals in Asia. If the introduction of TTP is meaningless without the participation and leadership of the United States, then the long-term strategy should be the expectation of the arrival of the White House, the new administration with which the US once again agree to this trade partnership. Asia is the engine of global economic growth, so the time on its side, and it is possible that the TTP may yet become a reality in posttrampovskom world.
In turn, Asian leaders should be wary of "incendiary" Trump's strategy, as he repeatedly shows that he does not look at negotiations as a mutually beneficial undertaking. His pathological approach to the negotiations requires the loser, because of which is difficult to see in the bilateral negotiations with the administration the opportunity to mutually beneficial results. Instead of counting Trump brilliant negotiator, one must understand that he is a businessman and a lover of tough rhetoric. Such a strategy is destructive, and long it will negatively affect the credibility of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region.