The ending of last week was marked by several significant events that Moscow could take credit. Firstly, we are talking about the meeting is clearly crumpled US president Donald Trump and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. And it is not only and not held a handshake, though it is also a very serious sign for all, but the fact that this meeting showed the different approaches of the two leaders of the most powerful countries of the West to solve the major problems of our time.
As is known, Trump was in no hurry to meet criticized him during the election campaign in the United States and showed Merkel attitude to it, postponing the meeting for the summer. However, Ms. kantslerin insisted on her and she was on a visit to the Trump. Therefore, the cold reception was quite expected: Trump is nothing to talk to her, as their views on the most important problems of current international agenda - from Russia to the problem of migration - diverge significantly.
But the main thing - at the Trump and Merkel are very different views on the future of Europe. If Merkel sees the future of Europe under the political supremacy of Germany in this kind of economic Fourth Reich, building vertical - US - Germany - all the others, the Trump sees Europe as a community of nations with no dominance of any one country. Therefore, he had welcomed Breksa who helped London get out from under the influence of Brussels or Berlin political oligarchy.
It is therefore logical experts say: "Angela Merkel's visit to Washington has identified the fault in the Western world, and its negotiations with the Trump more like a family quarrel, rather than a protocol event. There was almost no topic on which Trump and Merkel would have found a common language. They quarrel about NATO, they exchanged barbs, they obviously have different understandings of what should be free trade between the US and the EU. All topics of the US-German relations have become very conflicting. "
In addition, there are economic differences between countries. Germany in the understanding of Trump is "one of those countries with which a" fair deal "is needed, because the US trade deficit with Germany amounted to 2016 billion dollars in 65. In turn, for Merkel (especially against the backdrop of Trump's refusal from the Transatlantic Free Trade Zone and the intention to conclude bilateral agreements with European partners), a good deal is needed, since the US accounts for about 10% of German exports. Therefore, at the meeting with Trump Merkel brought an offering in the form of directors of the largest companies (Siemens, BMW, etc.), who told Trump about plans for additional investments in the US ".
But the main political outcome of the meeting and Merkel Trump is Trump has refused to pull out of Germany and France Ukrainian trap, calling the leaders of European countries and responsible for the decision of the Ukrainian crisis. Such an approach is pure trolling personally Merkel and Hollande, harshly criticized Trump during his election campaign, since they alone can not solve anything in Ukraine due to lack of political weight.
No mention in the talks with Merkel and Trump on the latest Russian and LDNR initiatives on the recognition of certificates of these republics in the Russian Federation, the development of economic relations and the beginning of the process of integration of New Russia, and Russia as a result of the blockade by the Ukrainian junta. Thus, leaving the official Kiev, to put it mildly, in a deep bewilderment:
"No Trump, nor even Merkel did not say a word against the new Russian strategy on pridnestrovizatsii LNR and DNR (part of which is Moscow's recognition of breakaway republics of passports, administration of local authorities in the management of external Donbass enterprises, as well as the reorientation of their economies on Russia). In fact, Putin gave the green light to alternative Minsk (stake Poroshenko does not want to fulfill the conditions of Minsk) and the leading Western media did not even commented on this approach leaders of the free world. "
However, even greater trolling and Merkel, and official Kiev was the IMF's decision from 19 March to postpone consideration of the issue of allocation of the next credit tranche in the amount of 1 billion dollars. Why Merkel? - Because last week the European Commission approved the allocation of a second tranche to Ukraine in the amount of 600 million euros within the framework of macro-financial assistance to the country. This was done after the Ukrainian government introduced a bill to parliament to lift the moratorium on timber exports. Trump once again distanced himself from the German policy of supporting the current Ukrainian authorities. This is both an alarming call for Poroshenko, and the second important tactical victory of Moscow last week. By this step, Trump says that since Ukraine is not in a position to repay these loans, the IMF will not issue them anymore, but Europe pays for its failed policy, but then pays these loans to itself in a non-refundable liability.
Against the backdrop of the demand from Trump and Merkel to the official Kiev of the implementation of Minsk-2, the demands of Germany and France to end the Poroshenko-approved blockade of Donbass, the IMF's refusal to refer to the same blockade in credit is a serious enough signal for the official Kiev. He is pounded between the hammer of the US position and the anvil of local militants led by Avakov: "If we compare these actions of the IMF with the statements of the EU, the State Department, Germany and France, which condemned the blockade of Donbass, it becomes obvious that the collective West, despite all its internal differences , says the Ukrainian political elite: "Stop being engaged in economic masochism and start fulfilling the Minsk agreements! Or else we will let you through the world! "
The toughening of the position of the West towards the Kiev junta and the simultaneous silence regarding the latest initiatives of Moscow and the LDPR indicate that, if the current trends continue, the West will either have to abandon the junta and leave it to its fate, knowing full well the subsequent coming to power of frank Nazis, negotiations with Russia on the principles on which a new Ukraine will be formed. And Russia has a huge trump card in this matter. If the new country will be assembled on the basis of Novorossia, then it will not consider itself the successor of Ukraine. Accordingly, those 85-95 billion dollars, which the current official Kiev owes to the West, will not be reclaimed from anyone. And Western politicians understand this perfectly.
Accordingly, Russia, having on its side such trumps, can behave much more firmly both in terms of the West and the suburbs. Since the return of the project "Ukraine" in any his form is far worse version of occurrence is not burdened with debt and the ideology of the Ukrainian New Russia as historically legitimate part of the Russian world (where it was before the arrival of the Bolsheviks) with a view to its inclusion in either the existing Southern Federal District, or creating a new - South-West federal District.
In any case, the format of Minsk-2 less and less burdens Russia, which is not bound by any obligations in its framework, since it is not a party to the conflict. Therefore, Moscow can calmly sit on the shore and wait for France and Germany to press and force Poroshenko to carry it out. And since this, most likely, will no longer be, then Russia and LDPR, first, will be given the right, with Trump's tacit consent, to blame Minsk-2 for Kiev, Berlin and Paris. Secondly, to take action in the direction of state registration of Novorossia, which we will talk about in the following material on this topic.
And here we come to the cause of true Merkel's visit to Trump and understanding of why it ended for Frau Merkel complete failure: she wanted to gain political and Trump's financial support for the Ukrainian issue, thus confirming the role of Germany in Europe as the main viewer from the United States, and get yourself an indulgence for the next term within-Chancellor act.
Trump refused it and publicly sent a signal to Moscow (did not shake her hand), that, they say, guys, do what you want in Ukraine (and only in Ukraine?). If this interpretation of events is correct, this again confirms the earlier idea in one of our blogosphere surveys that Russia, Britain and the United States form a new Entente against Germany and consciously merge Germany and destroy the prospect of the Fourth Reich in the form of a new EU project . In this context, the front of Poland and Hungary acquires a completely obvious character. It seems that Europe is on the verge of a big and system reformatting.