The ending of last week was marked by several significant events that Moscow could take credit. Firstly, we are talking about the meeting is clearly crumpled US president Donald Trump and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. And it is not only and not held a handshake, though it is also a very serious sign for all, but the fact that this meeting showed the different approaches of the two leaders of the most powerful countries of the West to solve the major problems of our time.
As is known, Trump was in no hurry to meet criticized him during the election campaign in the United States and showed Merkel attitude to it, postponing the meeting for the summer. However, Ms. kantslerin insisted on her and she was on a visit to the Trump. Therefore, the cold reception was quite expected: Trump is nothing to talk to her, as their views on the most important problems of current international agenda - from Russia to the problem of migration - diverge significantly.
But the main thing - at the Trump and Merkel are very different views on the future of Europe. If Merkel sees the future of Europe under the political supremacy of Germany in this kind of economic Fourth Reich, building vertical - US - Germany - all the others, the Trump sees Europe as a community of nations with no dominance of any one country. Therefore, he had welcomed Breksa who helped London get out from under the influence of Brussels or Berlin political oligarchy.
It is therefore logical experts say: "Angela Merkel's visit to Washington has identified the fault in the Western world, and its negotiations with the Trump more like a family quarrel, rather than a protocol event. There was almost no topic on which Trump and Merkel would have found a common language. They quarrel about NATO, they exchanged barbs, they obviously have different understandings of what should be free trade between the US and the EU. All topics of the US-German relations have become very conflicting. "
In addition, there are economic differences between countries. Germany within the meaning of Trump - "one of those countries which need a" fair deal "because the US trade deficit with Germany was in the 2016 65, about billions of dollars. In turn, Merkel (especially given the failure of the Trump Transatlantic Free Trade Zone and the intention to enter into bilateral agreements with European partners) need a good deal, because the US accounts for about 10% of German exports. Therefore, to meet with Trump Merkel brought an offering in the form of directors of the largest companies (Siemens, BMW, etc.), who spoke about Trump plans additional investments in the United States. "
But the main political outcome of the meeting and Merkel Trump is Trump has refused to pull out of Germany and France Ukrainian trap, calling the leaders of European countries and responsible for the decision of the Ukrainian crisis. Such an approach is pure trolling personally Merkel and Hollande, harshly criticized Trump during his election campaign, since they alone can not solve anything in Ukraine due to lack of political weight.
No mention in the talks with Merkel and Trump on the latest Russian and LDNR initiatives on the recognition of certificates of these republics in the Russian Federation, the development of economic relations and the beginning of the process of integration of New Russia, and Russia as a result of the blockade by the Ukrainian junta. Thus, leaving the official Kiev, to put it mildly, in a deep bewilderment:
"No Trump, nor even Merkel did not say a word against the new Russian strategy on pridnestrovizatsii LNR and DNR (part of which is Moscow's recognition of breakaway republics of passports, administration of local authorities in the management of external Donbass enterprises, as well as the reorientation of their economies on Russia). In fact, Putin gave the green light to alternative Minsk (stake Poroshenko does not want to fulfill the conditions of Minsk) and the leading Western media did not even commented on this approach leaders of the free world. "
However, even more trolling and Merkel, and the official Kiev was the decision of the IMF on March 19 to postpone consideration of the allocation of the next credit tranche of $ 1 billion dollars. Why is Merkel? - Because last week the European Commission approved the allocation of Ukraine the second tranche of $ 600 million euros in macro-financial assistance to the country. This was done after the Ukrainian government introduced a bill in Parliament to lift the moratorium on the export of timber. Trump once again distanced himself from the German policy of supporting the current Ukrainian authorities. This is a wake-up call for Poroshenko and the second important tactical victory in Moscow last week. With this step Trump said that since Ukraine is not able to return these loans, the IMF they will no longer give out, but let Europe for their failed policies pays, but then these loans will bring his versatile non-refundable.
Amid demands from Trump and Merkel to perform official Kyiv Minsk-2, Germany and France requirements to stop the blockade of Donbass approved Poroshenko IMF refused, invoking the same blockade in the credit - quite a serious signal to the official Kiev. His chase between the hammer of the US position and the anvil of local militants led by Avakov: "If we compare the IMF's actions, statements of the EU, the US State Department, Germany and France have condemned the blockade of Donbass, it becomes obvious that the collective West, despite its internal divisions says Ukrainian political elite: "Stop watching and economic masochism and start to fulfill Minsk agreements! And not that we have around the world is empty! "
Tightening of the West's position in relation to the Kiev junta and the simultaneous silence on the recent Moscow's initiatives and LDNR says that if present trends continue, the West will be forced to either give up the junta, and leave her to fend for themselves, knowing the subsequent rise to power of overt Nazi or start negotiations with Russia on the principles on which the new Ukraine will be formed. And Russia in this issue there is a huge trump card. If the new country will be collected on the basis of New Russia, it will not consider himself the successor of Ukraine. Accordingly, those 85-95 billion dollars that the current official Kiev should the West not to be someone to reclaim. And Western politicians are well aware.
Accordingly, Russia, having on its side such trumps, can behave much more firmly both in terms of the West and the suburbs. Since the return of the project "Ukraine" in any his form is far worse version of occurrence is not burdened with debt and the ideology of the Ukrainian New Russia as historically legitimate part of the Russian world (where it was before the arrival of the Bolsheviks) with a view to its inclusion in either the existing Southern Federal District, or creating a new - South-West federal District.
In any case, the Minsk-2 format less inconvenienced Russia, which is not related to him within any obligation, since it is not a party to the conflict. So Moscow can sit on the beach and wait for France and Germany will dodavlivat Poroshenko and forced to implement it. And because of this, most likely, will not be, then Russia and LDNR, first of all, will have the right, with the acquiescence of Trump blame for the failure of the Minsk-2 to Kiev, Berlin and Paris. Second, take action in the direction of the state registration of New Russia, as we discuss in the next article on this topic.
And here we come to the cause of true Merkel's visit to Trump and understanding of why it ended for Frau Merkel complete failure: she wanted to gain political and Trump's financial support for the Ukrainian issue, thus confirming the role of Germany in Europe as the main viewer from the United States, and get yourself an indulgence for the next term within-Chancellor act.
Trump denied her in this and publicly sent a signal to Moscow (do not shake hands), that, well, the guys do in Ukraine (and only if the Ukraine?), What you want. If this interpretation of events is correct, then this confirms previously carried out in one of our surveys blogosphere idea that Russia, Britain and the United States form against Germany a new Entente and deliberately drained Germany and destroy the prospect of the formation of the Fourth Reich in the form of the European Union of a new project . In this context, Poland and Hungary Fronde becomes quite obvious. It seems that Europe is on the verge of a large and systematic reformatting.