While all attention is focused on the first meeting of the Russian and US presidents in Hamburg at the G20 summit, Donald Trump is sent to Poland to depreciate its results in advance, sapping Russia and ... Germany.
US President Donald Trump is not at all as simple as he is usually thought of. While all attention is focused on the first meeting of the presidents of Russia and the US, which is expected to hold high hopes in Moscow at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Donald Trump is sent to Poland in order to depreciate its results in advance, pestering Russia and at the same time Germany.
Trump travels to Hamburg via Warsaw
Trump's route to Hamburg runs through Warsaw, where he flies today, and this is by no means an accident. This is more than a symbolic action, the practical consequences of which can not be overemphasized. In the capital of Poland, the US president will address the first major public speech in Europe and will attend the summit of the "Three Seas" group, which includes 12 countries in Central and Eastern Europe.
The US President will give a speech at the Krasiński Square, which for many Poles is a symbol of resistance to totalitarianism, which is ultimately associated with Russia. His tribune will be at the bronze monument to the participants of the Warsaw Uprising 1944. Many Poles here accuse Russia of not intentionally supporting this adventurous action organized by the emigre government in London, although the Soviet troops were on the other bank of the Vistula. The fact that they were extremely weakened as a result of the rapid offensive operation that led them almost from Smolensk to the gates of Warsaw, were bleeding, completely exhausted, torn off from the rear, needed replenishment, these critics are not convinced in anything. Say, Stalin could still, if he wanted, putting an extra half a million lives (Russian blood is not a pity), transferring forces from other fronts, knocking out the Germans from Warsaw, so that the enemies of Russia are actually a new Polish power.
In the course of his keynote speech, as the White House reported, Trump will require the countries of the "new Europe" to adhere to NATO, in which the US runs, and increase military spending. Of course, he will also promise the countries of the region military protection from the US - guess from whom. He will, in particular, be heeded by more than 3 thousand American troops already in Poland, which they allegedly defend against "Russian aggression".
US President to declare Russia's energy war
The main theme of the summit of the countries located between the Baltic, Black and Adriatic Seas will be the creation of an energy alternative to Russian projects in Europe, the development of US-based energy infrastructure, LNG terminals and gas pipelines. In fact, it will be a declaration of war on Gazprom, which currently supplies Europe with about half of its gas consumption, and in some countries its share is much higher. Meanwhile, the US authorities, where there are huge reserves of gas and oil, which have been little used in recent decades, expect to become the world's third largest exporter of liquefied gas in the world by 2020, to become an energy superpower.
At the energy summit in Warsaw, the countries of Eastern and Central Europe, the US president will declare a gas war on Russia. Photo: Susan Walsh / AP / TASS
It is clear that the main target of Trump's speech at the energy forum will be the same Russia, which in the West is absolutely unjustifiably accused of blackmailing the countries that have come to it in energy dependence, although the US itself is planning to do this when it firmly establishes its energy carriers in the European market, That otherwise they just can not. Washington is doing its best to disrupt the implementation of Russian energy projects - the Nord Stream-2 and the Turkish Stream, as it once did with the support of Brussels with South Stream. Two years later, when the contract with Gazprom ends, Poland hopes to become a consumer and hub for Europe of the American LNG, which is already buying several European countries from the US. Although the shale gas intended by the Americans for export is several times less quality than usual, it will become much more expensive than Russian pipeline gas after crossing the ocean. By the way, the first American tanker with LNG is already at the Polish coast - Trump adores such effects.
Where do the Europeans look?
Before shaking hands in Hamburg with Putin and on the pretext that no one suspected Trump of weakness in front of Russia, Washington is preparing to strike at the most painful place for Russia - the export of demanded and well-sold energy carriers. To this end, the US Congress has already developed a package of sanctions that even punish European partners of Gazprom for participation in the implementation of energy projects beneficial for Europe and Russia. We are talking about the largest and most respected companies in the world. Everything is ready to start an economic war. Legislators are only waiting for a go-ahead: it was not possible to get along with Russia - start. It looks like they are waiting for the signal from the US in Kiev, where Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will go on a visit to 9 July. Is it not for the Europeans to see the "unreliability" of Russian gas supplies and to prove Trump's "rightness"?
At the same time, the United States is attacking the European Union and, above all, Germany, whose economy needs uninterrupted, reliable energy supplies, without the threat of political blackmail, which only Russia can provide to the Germans. In addition, the northern streams go to Germany, which turns into a distributor of Russian gas for other European countries, which further enhances its status.
Despite constant accusations by the German media of Russia of using gas for political purposes, the authorities of Germany know perfectly well that this is not the case, and therefore are extremely alarmed by American plans.
Foreign Ministry of Germany: "The US threat to fine companies in Germany, Austria and other European countries, because they are involved in gas projects with Russia, are introducing a completely new and very negative element in European-American relations." Photo: www.globallookpress.com
"The threat from the US to fine companies in Germany, Austria and other European countries just because they are involved in gas projects with Russia, such as the Nord Stream-2, or fund them, are introducing a completely new and very negative element in the European- American relations, "it was noted in the statement of the Foreign Ministry of Germany. In an interview with the weekly Der Spiegel, the German government's adviser on security and foreign policy Kirsten Westfal stated bluntly that Washington pursues selfish goals, seeking to dominate the European gas market: "If the FRG were to import liquefied gas from the US, this would tip the scales In favor of the United States. And behind this may be hiding the calculation - to finish with the active trade balance of Germany. "
By the way, not only that. The crowding out of relatively cheap Russian pipeline gas from Europe will make its economy less competitive, give advantages to US companies and allow the US to use its gas for the smallest reason and without using it as a means of blackmail, that is, to engage in what is attributed to Gazprom and Russia in the West.
In Vienna, by the way, they share Berlin's position and also suspect Washington of dishonest intentions. German-speaking Europe has no complexes that the Poles have. This Warsaw and some other Russophobic countries of Eastern Europe, as we see, do not care about their economy, the real interests of their peoples. It is more important for them to bite Russia. It turns out as in an anecdote, when a man caught a goldfish, and she says: "Ask what you want, but you know, your neighbor will get twice as much." The answer to this was: "Goldfish, punch me one eye."
Trump opens Pandora's box
Although, of course, not everything is so simple. Хотя, конечно, не все так просто. Можно не сомневаться, что Трампу на энергетическом саммите в Варшаве будут рукоплескать и лидеры тех европейских стран, которые вполне нормально относятся к России, но которые переживают, что из-за прекращения через два года украинского транзита (то, что Киев на этом чудовищно обирает Россию, их мало волнует) они сами перестанут быть транзитерами российских энергоносителей для Европы, что им будет сложнее или даже дороже получить доступ к российскому газу, если он будет поступать в Европу через Германию или Турцию, что им более не удастся зарабатывать немалые деньги на "реверсе" российского газа Украине, чем активно занимается, например, Словакия. У стран из этой категории может появиться искушение поспекулировать в отношениях с Россией американскими соблазнами, чтобы попытаться сбить еще ниже цену за российский газ, гарантировать себе привилегии при его поставках. Countries from this category may be tempted to speculate in relations with Russia with American temptations to try to bring down the price for Russian gas even lower, guaranteeing the privileges for its deliveries.
All these are "second-rate" members of the EU. They are conservative. They are irritated by Western European liberalism, the open door policy for illegal migration practiced by Brussels and Berlin. They are constantly offended by European bureaucrats, like, for example, Hungary.
Many of the 12 countries of the "new Europe" are afraid of the German dictatorship in the EU, and they will be only happy if there is an opportunity for the US to feel more confident in its relations with Brussels and especially with Berlin. Unfavorable historical memory, the economic expansion of the FRG, imposed by the Germans (who not only profit from their country's position in the EU, but also have to pay the bills of its less developed members), "strict economy", the demands to redistribute according to the quotas of "refugees" - all this There will be factors that will provide Trump in Warsaw with a sympathetic audience. Therefore, his plans to deal hard with a German competitor and, in general, to destroy the EU with its collective ambitions and geopolitical claims, in order to crush certain member countries of the community under the United States, can get a powerful acceleration.
Trump applauded Brexit - does not want to deal with a single Europe, which the United States had previously tried to split into "new" and "old", where Trump can not stand. Of course, Germany will suffer the most from this, which, according to the new American administration, is undermining the EU and turning it into a US competitor in the world economy.
In this regard, there is an interesting collision - the United States with its singers like Poland, who do not forget about their past greatness, against Russia and Germany, against their economic and political interests in Eastern and Western Europe. In this situation, Berlin's hopes to "sit out" Trump may turn out to be illusory, since there are many supporters of Washington's current US policy, and it has been brewing for a long time. Therefore, the interests of Moscow and Berlin dictate to the authorities of Germany the need to stop conflict with Russia because of "values", to moderate appetites in Ukraine, so as not to suffer much more damage from US actions that seem to want to weaken economically, deprive Germany of many of its policy Decades, leaving the Germans some costs. Only the Russian-German alliance can interfere with this, even if it is very far from Russian-Chinese.
All the rest in Europe, the US will quickly be twisted into a mutton horn.