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Trump scares, but it is not terrible

The situation around North Korea once again heating up. Donald Trump puts pressure on China and said that if Beijing refuses, "The United States themselves are willing to solve the problem of North Korea." Against the background of Friday's strikes on Syria to the rhetoric of the American president focused attention. Does the US really can strike on North Korea?

Trump says that North Korea "is asking for trouble, the US aircraft carrier goes to the shores of Korea, North Korea declared its readiness to defend themselves against provocateurs all the power of weapons." Again, 'the aggravation of the Korean "or really bad?

Traditionally, US-North Korean skirmish escalates each spring - the clue is that at this time, the US and South Korea carry out joint military exercises, which, of course, irritate the DPRK, and so living in the feeling and the state of siege. In recent years, new reasons for the loud statements add and testing ballistic missiles that North Korea conducts possessing nuclear weapons.

In response to each new test intensified sanctions, sound loud statements from Washington. Pyongyang, in turn, threatens to destroy the imperialist aggressor. Everything goes according to plan - but this year, the new administration in the United States, using the global method of bluffing and raising rates to create favorable conditions for the start of a new foreign policy.

In the center of geopolitics Donald Trump's relations with China and Russia - or rather, the changes in them. And yet Trump actively playing in the Chinese box: a crucial part of this game is the so-called Korean nuclear issue.

Trump actively presses on her - in order to put pressure on China. On Tuesday, the US president actually recognized what everyone already understood - the hype surrounding the "Korean bomb" is necessary for him for an operation to force China to review trade relations with America. As Trump wrote on Twitter: "I explained to the President of China that the trade deal with the US would be much better for them if they solve the North Korean problem," referring to their talks with Xi Jinping last week. Well, and if it does not work? Then, as Trump wrote in the next tweet, "North Korea is asking for trouble. If China decides to help, it will be excellent. If not, the US is ready to solve the DPRK's problem. "

In fact, it's a bluff - the US is not ready and can not "solve the problem" themselves. Such statements are necessary for Trump all for the same purpose - to convince China that he is very serious. Additional weight is attached to the fact that Trump arranged last Friday "festive salute," which he welcomed the beginning of negotiations with the Sea in his estate in Florida. That is, the impact of Tomahawks on the Syrian air base Shairat. If Trump can hit Syria, where there are Russian interests and troops, then why should he not strike at the DPRK, where there are Chinese interests, this is something the geopolitical philistine can talk about.

Did Trump want to create such an impression of Xi Jinping? It is unclear, most likely not - but he clearly wanted to force the PRC chairman to perceive him as a tough and determined leader. On Sunday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on the direct question of whether the attack on the base in Syria is a signal, a message for the DPRK, replied: "A message that can be addressed to any country is:" If you violate international norms, violate international agreements, you can not fulfill obligations and become a threat to others, at some stage, an answer is possible. "

In this case, direct analogy between Syria and Korea are dangerous for the US, because the situation is fundamentally different. And even play the "similarity" even hint at it is dangerous primarily to the United States. From the point of view of their geopolitical strategy can exert so China that fix it is not under force to any Kissinger (and in fact the author of Nixon's visit to Beijing in 1972-m actually arranged, and this trip to the Trump C). And from a military point of view the situation in the Middle and Far East in general comparable.

There has been a war in Syria for six years, both civil and regional, involving many states, including Russia, Turkey, Iran, the United States, and here the blow to the Syrian military airfield did not carry any unpredictable military consequences. Because Russia, the main player, was warned - that is, there was an opportunity to avoid a clash of two military superpowers. The DPRK is neither a territory of operations, nor anyone's ally or client - it is an absolutely independent state, one of the few countries in the world that does not depend on anyone at all.

Pyongyang is impossible to put pressure - the US is trying to do it for a quarter century, in recent years has supported sanctions against North Korea, China and Russia, they have acquired an international character. But that did not make the Kim to give up nuclear and missile programs, because they see it as the only reliable guarantee against American aggression.

Persuading Pyongyang that the US is not going to attack is useless. First, the US itself does not give it any guarantees - their troops are in South Korea, the annual exercises simulate attacks on the DPRK. Secondly, the more pressure is exerted on Pyongyang, the more he is convinced of the correctness of the nuclear-missile course he has chosen: if friends and neighbors, China and Russia, impose sanctions against him, then only non-assault weapons can give weapons of deterrence. Stopping the DPRK's nuclear program would not help even if China and Russia guaranteed Pyongyang their protection - because North Korean Communists do not believe anyone in the world. Yes, Moscow and Beijing and will not give such guarantees - how to give them in the presence of American troops in the south of the peninsula. And with the amount of conventional weapons that makes the 38 parallel and the peninsula as a whole one of the most militarized places on Earth.

Any US attack on North Korea would lead to retaliation Pyongyang. Suppose that the US wanted to destroy the site, which launched ballistic missiles, or disable anything else of the objects of the Korean missile program. This will lead to retaliation North Korea US bases in South Korea, as well as in Okinawa. If flying on the Japanese island of missiles can be intercepted, is located a few dozen kilometers from the border with North Korea will cover a base "sea of ​​fire" of the largest in the world, the North Korean artillery.

Even if we do not take the risk of in response to the North Koreans nuclear weapons - from "simple" weapons would claim tens of thousands, and then hundreds of thousands of people. War breaks out near the borders of China and Russia, after which it will be possible to forget not only about dialogue between Washington and Beijing, with Moscow, but also about peace time as such.

China will regard US attack on North Korea as a direct challenge to himself and a threat to its security - and the memory of a terrible Chinese-American War 1950-1953 years, known as the "Korean", come to life again. And Russia will not, and can not stay away - as well as in the war, we find ourselves on the same side with the Chinese.

But we should not "play tanchiki." No one in their right mind would start a world war - Trump generals, as the President himself, sane people. Beat on Korea for the sake of reducing the deficit in trade with China? Well, it's like burning the house to deduce from it the cockroaches. Trump uses Korea to put pressure on China, in Beijing understands this, they pretend to crush, traded to Washington. Then sit down at the table - and agree on new trade rules.

It is important to only one thing - to Trump remembered that his Twitter read not only in Beijing, but also in Pyongyang. And no matter how much Russia and China have not calmed the North Koreans, no matter how they explained that Washington would not attack them, the nerves of the younger Kim and his senior generals steel. Enough to provoke, stop playing with fire - concessions from China is still not achieved, but to bring the case to some incident in the Korean waters as possible. And then the entire Middle East hell seem like paradise.

A source: LOOK

Author: Peter Akopov

Tags: US, North Korea, South Korea, China, War, Politics, International Relations, Research, Trump

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