The situation around North Korea once again heating up. Donald Trump puts pressure on China and said that if Beijing refuses, "The United States themselves are willing to solve the problem of North Korea." Against the background of Friday's strikes on Syria to the rhetoric of the American president focused attention. Does the US really can strike on North Korea?
Trump says that North Korea "is asking for trouble, the US aircraft carrier goes to the shores of Korea, North Korea declared its readiness to defend themselves against provocateurs all the power of weapons." Again, 'the aggravation of the Korean "or really bad?
Traditionally, US-North Korean skirmish escalates each spring - the clue is that at this time, the US and South Korea carry out joint military exercises, which, of course, irritate the DPRK, and so living in the feeling and the state of siege. In recent years, new reasons for the loud statements add and testing ballistic missiles that North Korea conducts possessing nuclear weapons.
In response to each new test intensified sanctions, sound loud statements from Washington. Pyongyang, in turn, threatens to destroy the imperialist aggressor. Everything goes according to plan - but this year, the new administration in the United States, using the global method of bluffing and raising rates to create favorable conditions for the start of a new foreign policy.
In the center of geopolitics Donald Trump's relations with China and Russia - or rather, the changes in them. And yet Trump actively playing in the Chinese box: a crucial part of this game is the so-called Korean nuclear issue.
Trump actively presses on it - in order to thus put pressure on China. On Tuesday, the US president actually recognized that and so everyone knew - the hype around the "Korean bomb," he needed for the operation to force China to revise trade relations with America. As Trump tweeted: "I explained to the President of China, that the trade deal with the United States for them to be much better, if they decide to the North Korean problem," - referring to his talks with Xi Jinping, held last week. Well, if you do not work? Then, as wrote the following tweet Trump, "North Korea is asking for trouble. If China decides to help, it will be fine. If not - the United States are willing to do to solve the problem of North Korea. "
In fact it is a bluff - the US is not ready and can not do "to solve the problem." Such statements need Trump all for the same purpose - to convince China that it is very serious about. The extra weight gives him what Trump gave last Friday "fireworks", which he welcomed the start of talks with Xi on his estate in Florida. That is a blow, "Tomahawk" on the Syrian air base Shayrat. If Trump can strike on Syria, where there are Russian interests and forces, then why does not he strike on North Korea, where there are Chinese interests - something like this can reason geopolitical inhabitant.
Whether he wanted Trump to create the impression in Xi? It is not clear, probably not - but he clearly wanted to make the Chinese President to perceive it as a tough and decisive leader. On Sunday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to a direct question about whether the attack on the base in Syria, a signal message for North Korea, said: "The message can be addressed to any country, is as follows:" If you violate international norms, break international treaties, you can not fulfill the obligations and become a threat to others, at some point, can answer. "
In this case, direct analogy between Syria and Korea are dangerous for the US, because the situation is fundamentally different. And even play the "similarity" even hint at it is dangerous primarily to the United States. From the point of view of their geopolitical strategy can exert so China that fix it is not under force to any Kissinger (and in fact the author of Nixon's visit to Beijing in 1972-m actually arranged, and this trip to the Trump C). And from a military point of view the situation in the Middle and Far East in general comparable.
In Syria for six years, is war, both civil and regional, which involves a lot of countries, including Russia, Turkey, Iran, the United States - and here a blow to the Syrian military airfield not carried a no unpredictable consequences of war. Because Russia, a major player, was warned - that is an opportunity to avoid the collision of two military superpowers. The DPRK is neither a territory of hostilities, nor anyone's ally or client - it is absolutely independent state, one of the few countries in the world that does not depend at all from anyone.
Pyongyang is impossible to put pressure - the US is trying to do it for a quarter century, in recent years has supported sanctions against North Korea, China and Russia, they have acquired an international character. But that did not make the Kim to give up nuclear and missile programs, because they see it as the only reliable guarantee against American aggression.
To convince Pyongyang that the US is not going to attack, it is useless. First, the United States do not give it any guarantees - their troops are in South Korea, the annual exercises simulate an attack on North Korea. Second, the more put pressure on Pyongyang, the more he is convinced of the rightness of his chosen nuclear missile course: so if friends and neighbors, China and Russia introduced sanctions against it, the guarantee of non-aggression can only give weapons of deterrence. To stop North Korea's nuclear program would not help even if China and Russia to guarantee their protection Pyongyang - because North Korean communists do not believe anyone in the world. Yes, Moscow and Beijing and will not give such guarantees - as they give in the presence of US troops in the south of the peninsula. And with the number of conventional weapons, which makes 38-th parallel and the peninsula as a whole one of the most militarized places on Earth.
Any US attack on North Korea would lead to retaliation Pyongyang. Suppose that the US wanted to destroy the site, which launched ballistic missiles, or disable anything else of the objects of the Korean missile program. This will lead to retaliation North Korea US bases in South Korea, as well as in Okinawa. If flying on the Japanese island of missiles can be intercepted, is located a few dozen kilometers from the border with North Korea will cover a base "sea of fire" of the largest in the world, the North Korean artillery.
Even if we do not take the risk of in response to the North Koreans nuclear weapons - from "simple" weapons would claim tens of thousands, and then hundreds of thousands of people. War breaks out near the borders of China and Russia, after which it will be possible to forget not only about dialogue between Washington and Beijing, with Moscow, but also about peace time as such.
China will regard US attack on North Korea as a direct challenge to himself and a threat to its security - and the memory of a terrible Chinese-American War 1950-1953 years, known as the "Korean", come to life again. And Russia will not, and can not stay away - as well as in the war, we find ourselves on the same side with the Chinese.
But we should not "play tanchiki." No one in their right mind would start a world war - Trump generals, as the President himself, sane people. Beat on Korea for the sake of reducing the deficit in trade with China? Well, it's like burning the house to deduce from it the cockroaches. Trump uses Korea to put pressure on China, in Beijing understands this, they pretend to crush, traded to Washington. Then sit down at the table - and agree on new trade rules.
It is important to only one thing - to Trump remembered that his Twitter read not only in Beijing, but also in Pyongyang. And no matter how much Russia and China have not calmed the North Koreans, no matter how they explained that Washington would not attack them, the nerves of the younger Kim and his senior generals steel. Enough to provoke, stop playing with fire - concessions from China is still not achieved, but to bring the case to some incident in the Korean waters as possible. And then the entire Middle East hell seem like paradise.