Tensions over North Korea is on the decline - "Trump backpedaled" rejoice those who yesterday was frightening new Armageddon. Over the last week around the Korean induce such fear that people seriously discussed the possibility of hitting the United States on North Korea, and even the beginning of a nuclear war. Now the passions begin to subside, but the main question remains unanswered: what it was and what it was?
In the interview TMJ4 Donald Trump expressed his hope for a peaceful solution to the current crisis over the DPRK. Answering the question whether the Americans have reasons to worry about the possibility of nuclear war between North Korea and the United States, he said:
"Worry is necessary always. Similarly, it is unclear with whom we are dealing. We'll see what happens. The situation is very, very difficult. I hope that it (the DPRK leader Kim Jong-un - LOOK) want peace, we want peace, and this means that the solution will be found, but we have to see what happens next. "
Essentially Trump confirmed the absence of an intention to strike on North Korea - which he refused to do during the previous days. In the same vein, he performed on Wednesday and the US permanent representative to the UN, Nikki Heyli:
"North Korea, we say: the US does not seek a collision, so do not try to arrange it."
A vice-president Mike Pence, who is in Japan on a direct question about the possibility of US direct talks with North Korea responded - "I think, not now."
And, of course, the most discussed news was the information New York Times that the US Navy strike group, led by the aircraft carrier "Carl Vinson", initially did not go to the coast of the Korean Peninsula, and was heading in the opposite direction. She planned to take part in exercises with the Australian Navy in the Indian Ocean, and the misinterpretation of course squadron appeared at the White House because of the haste of the Pentagon. Even the subsequent clarification that the carrier still come to the shores of Korea next week, did not change anything - over the US in general, and on Trump, began to banter and fun.
Not only the North Koreans, said that the false information on the aircraft carrier confirmed that Washington was "bluffing when he speaks of" warning "act against the DPRK," but also Chinese, and Japanese.
A presidential candidate from the ruling party of South Korea Hong Jung Pyo said that it is inappropriate to judge the location of the US aircraft carrier to obtain accurate information, but the statement Trump has been very important for the national security of South Korea - and "if it was a lie, South Korea will not be more trust in what he says Trump. "
"Retreat Trump" immediately we found a number of explanations. From the fact that from a blow to North Korea US president dissuaded Japanese or South Koreans, to the point that persistence and hard tone sobered Pyongyang Washington. All this is great - but only if Trump really going to hit the DPRK. But he never had such a plan - and this is confirmed not only by anecdotal story "Karlom Vinsonom", but the entire course of events. Of these, it is clear that Trump has pursued different goals - but whether it reached them?
Recall that the Korean theme escalated 8 April after it became aware of the USS campaign and a day after the US attack on Syrian air base. blow himself was struck at the time of the visit of the Chairman Xi Jinping in the United States. Trump told the Chinese leader of flying Tomahawk for dessert - and, as he himself later said in an interview, was watching his reaction.
Xi asked the interpreter to repeat said Trump, and then only expressed agree that use of chemical weapons is unacceptable (more on this as the cause of attack on the airbase Shayrat and said Trump). If the moment of impact on Syria were not yet fully understood the main objectives of Trump - to change the political agenda, to get rid of the image of "Russian candidate" or the game with China - the events of the following days showed Trump priorities.
The fact that he immediately began to "comb" the Korean theme, testified that on the first place for it was China. And a blow to Syria and threatening statements that "if China can not, we will deal with North Korea" - all this was done in the framework of his Trump game with China. Trump did not care about North Korea - just like he did not care, Syria and Ukraine - its troubled relations with China. And to put pressure on Beijing, he chose a Korean theme, starting bluff and threaten Pyongyang.
Is Trump knew that Marshal Kim will not intimidate and the chances of failure of the test and has even more up its nuclear program is not? If he has good advisers - there is no doubt. Is Trump understood that China is not able to command the DPRK? Of course. You see Trump, Beijing, Pyongyang will not be "strangled" in order to please Washington? Naturally. So what are sought Trump? Respect and recognition by Xi Jinping.
All the belligerent rhetoric in DPRK, of course, along the way helping and solving political problems Trump. He showed the Americans that much steeper "weakling Obama" and deprived the liberal establishment-controlled press to continue the theme of "incompetent and unsuccessful administrations Trump." But it is the relationship with Xi Jinping (and, indirectly, Putin) was a key objective of Trump. if he lifted his weight in the eyes of the Chinese leader?
On the one hand, Xi saw that Trump is able to organize a powerful public relations company and is not afraid to put on the ears halfway around the world in order to achieve the desired effect. On the other, the Chinese did not initially believe in Trump's ability to strike at the DPRK - if only because they do not consider him a madman. So that the entire Trump game was in front of them at a glance - and just understood everything and Vladimir Putin. Whose words about the "boring girls" referred not just to the charges Assad to use chemical weapons, and to all the combinations of Trump. Russian president seemed to be saying Trump - we see that you are ready for drastic measures to create the right atmosphere you, but it does not make a serious impression on us, because we understand your true goals.
Therefore, all the Korean crisis and Putin did not make any statements, giving Beijing, against whom, and to play a card, to enter into polemics with the United States.
China, on the one hand, consciously involved in the American game to heighten - was talking about the threat of war, expressed concern injection of passion, he urged North Korea and the United States to show restraint. But quite firmly he warned that those who provoke war, it will not be the winners. And it was directly addressed to the United States.
To obtain any concessions on the Korean issue Trump failed from China. How will the current crisis in its relations with Xi Jinping, will soon. It is clear that Vladimir Putin made his conclusions from the manner of Trump. And if psychologically Chinese and Russian leaders will behave with the US President in many ways, the political conclusions they make similar.
And chief among them is that a policy of strengthening the strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing would now be subject to all the new and new challenges. After all cards bluff Trump - this is only the form in which it invests the new US strategy in relations with Moscow and Beijing. Or rather, well forgotten old - whose author may well be Genri Kissindzher, former Secretary of State, who led the US rapprochement with China in the early 70-x. Now Kissinger advises Trump - and certainly explains to him that it is essential for the US to regain the initiative in the relationship in the framework of the US-Russia-China triangle. And make every effort to ensure that the bilateral relations between Washington and Beijing and Moscow were better than between Russian and Chinese.
The fact that the Russian-Chinese rapprochement has gone so far that the US has no chance of becoming a major angle of the triangle, the Americans will not stop. Moreover, his aggressive bluff Trump could further bring together Putin and Xi. Which appeared recently in the "Huanqiu Shibao" (Chinese officialdom, the second after the "People's Daily"), the article "Relations between Russia and China should be steadfast" is dedicated to just the relationship of the three countries:
"Washington is clearly trying to take control of the entire triangle China - Russia - USA. In such a situation it is especially important to maintain the strength and power of these triangular relationships. The reason for what was happening in the past few years the dynamic development of Russian-Chinese relations is the US and Western pressure on these countries, however, this development results went beyond a simple geopolitical model. And Beijing, and Moscow felt the importance of Sino-Russian relations and the comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation. Further development of relations has become a "strategic habit of" two countries. These relations have become for China and Russia are not dependent on the foreign policy of other countries, a strategic asset ...
The sides should cherish the independence of their bilateral relations and in any case not afford to succumb to the changes that are pushed by the American factor and the laws of "market conditions." Strategic mutual between China and Russia requires a constant search for new points of support and overcome the barriers of time ...
When the international situation is undergoing serious changes, China and Russia should strengthen communication and mutual understanding, as well as to ensure continuous strengthening strategic mutual trust. "
If this is what will be the main outcome of "Korean crisis", it turns out that Trump has achieved the exact opposite of what expected.