"Turkish democracy is dead" - as interpreted by American TV news of the victory of President Erdogan. He won a referendum on expanding his powers, has strengthened its position in the country, he made it clear that he would return the death penalty, and now, is expected to speak with the West even harsher tone.
In Turkey, Monday morning was treated with all the ballots in a referendum on the transition from a parliamentary to a presidential system. Amendments to the constitution supported 51,18% citizens transmits RT with reference to Anadolu, anti - 48,80%.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking in front of crowds in Istanbul, said that the referendum gave an answer to those "who threatened us with a stick." He thought of the military coup attempt last summer and called the "popular resistance" putschists "legendary." "Our people have made a choice, gave the nod of the presidential system. Our country has again shown that not bow before any threat. Who wanted to crush Turkey, trample it, lost today, "- said the prime minister and the head of the ruling Justice and Development Party Binali Yildirim.
So, citizens of Turkey approved the transition from a parliamentary to a presidential system. From now on, the head of state, in particular, can dissolve parliament, to declare a state of emergency, to appoint and dismiss ministers and judges, as well as to issue decrees in a number of areas. Moreover, Erdogan's presidential term (elected for the first time three years ago) is not taken into account, and he will be entitled to a further two terms, that is, to be able to rule 2029 years. No wonder the opposition has long accused the president's secret intention to restore the "Sultanate" and the law in general for life. According to RT, Wikipedia user has added the word "dictator" in Erdogan's description of the English-language article.
"First of all," the gallows
According to RIA "Novosti", the vote without incident. The exception was a skirmish in the area in the predominantly Kurdish province of Diyarbakır, in which three people died. However, the main opposition force in the country - the Social Democrats - has already threatened to challenge the results of the vote in court. According to them, the reason for this will be the decision of the CEC to take into account when counting the votes the ballots that do not bear printing of election commissions, although this is expressly prohibited by law. In any case, the mass demonstrations of protest in Turkey should not be expected, because the continuing state of emergency in the country.
Speaking at a rally in Istanbul, Erdogan said that it is now to be done "even more", but "the first thing" promised to discuss the possibility of a return of the death penalty. Erdogan did not rule out a new plebiscite on the issue. Recall, the execution by hanging operated in Turkey to 2002 years. On the return of penalty Erdogan spoke immediately after the military coup, which angered the leaders of the European Union.
CNN buries "Turkish democracy"
In the West, accepted the results of the plebiscite without enthusiasm. The Council of Europe pointed out: the small gap winners from the losers is that the Turkish leadership should take further steps with caution. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel called on the Turkish authorities to prevent a split of Turkish society after the referendum. By the way, the Turks living in Germany for the most part supported by Erdogan.
The Western press did not hesitate in the gloomy predictions. , CNN just said that on Sunday "Turkish democracy is dead." Announcement of the results, which the opposition calls rigged turn Turkey into a less democratic country even more divided and religious than previously predicted channel.
In turn, the leaders of Belarus, Hungary, Macedonia, Saudi Arabia and Sudan congratulated the Turkish leadership. Especially magnificently expressed the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, stressing that the referendum indicates the "dawn of a new era" in Turkey - it will strengthen its' role and place in the international arena. "
Relations with Moscow
The first deputy chairman of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, Vladimir Lukin, does not exclude the gain of disputes between Moscow and Ankara in the near future. "Of course, we have different interests in the Middle East, and the strengthening of one-man rule in the country suggests a more populist, aggressive foreign policy - said Lukin VIEW newspaper. - So it is possible that Turkey will be more active in Syria and here there may be differences with Moscow. " However, Turkey, as has been interested in the flow of our tourists, and would be interested. This is one of the sources of her income, he stressed.
In Turkey itself, I believe that the debate on Syria will not interfere with cooperation in the economy, especially with regard to tourism, gas and agricultural products. "The positions of Russia and Turkey on Syria is clear, whether the concessions on both sides, only time will tell. But we have other areas, and the Syrian perspective should not be an obstacle here - said the newspaper VIEW associate professor at the University of Economics and Technology and the Chamber of Commerce of Turkey Exchange Ismail Togrul. - There is the opportunity to maximize the relationship beneficial to both countries. "
The stronger Erdogan will feel at home, the less predictable player he is for the West and Russia, warns expert analytical center KUB leading TV channel "Star" Nada Fridrihsons. According to her, trying to "make a great Turkey again," Erdogan uses until the Russian factor as leverage in dialogue with the US. "But Ankara and Washington are more similar in their views on Syria and Assad, rather than Ankara and Moscow. In addition, Erdogan needs the status of the main US partner in the region. So for Ankara's cooperation with Russia and especially Tehran - short-lived, "- complained Fridrihsons.
Erdogan actually abandon plans to become a "junior partner of the European Union" and relies on the regional leadership of the country, she said. For Brussels, it poses greater dangers than the prospect of Turkey's membership in the EU. Now, when Erdogan got all the mechanisms for securing their position in the country, it becomes difficult for the EU negotiator. Turkish leader's rhetoric is ratcheted up, it will be perceived to cheer his electorate. "Sharpness will be conditioned and the issue of refugees, and, again, Russian factor - I mean the agreement between Moscow and Ankara on the gas pipeline", - explained Fridrihsons.
Relations with Brussels and Washington
"Turkey strongly delimits with its NATO allies, the course of action that they really do not like. Entry into the European Union in recent years, still proclaimed the strategic goal of Ankara, but now it should be forgotten, "- said Lukin. If there is a referendum on the death penalty, with a positive result, "Turkey permanently close its doors in the face of all these structures," he suggested.
With regard to relations with the United States, the administration Trump less attention has been paid to a political regime in one country or another. "If the Americans will need a good working relationship with Turkey, they will have them, regardless of who and how is at the helm - he stressed. - The experience of their relations with Saudi Arabia, China, said that they are quite flexible and pragmatic. "
US will not want to lose such a partner as Turkey because it is a regional power, and believe in the very Ankara. "Those who voted to change the constitution, is also expected to strengthen the role of Turkey in the international arena, as referred to President Aliyev," - said Togrul.
He is not believed that the subject of executions will be untwisted by the authorities in the near future - for example, to the consolidation of society. According to Togrul, some voters really favors the restoration of such punishment, but "as long as it is not the main issue."
With him I disagree Fridrihsons. "Erdogan won de jure, but in fact the vote showed that the society is split. This is the first problem that it should be addressed. In addition, there will be internal mechanisms involved (already heard promises to return the death penalty), Erdogan will be used for this purpose, and the foreign policy tools. First of all, it is the Syrian track, where the balance of today is not in favor of Turkey. US support for the Kurds, who are planning an offensive on Rakka, threatens the interests of Ankara and provokes electorate Erdogan - it will require "protection against the Kurds", - predicts expert.
Fridrihsons not preclude recurrence in Turkey new tragic events, such as terrorist attacks. "They accuse the authorities of the PKK, and against this background again demand that the Americans refused to support the Syrian Kurds. But even if it does not work, Erdogan thus visualizes for the Turkish public a real factor of threat ", - summed up the expert.