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"Turkish flow" is gathering volumes: the main gas route to the south of the EU will change its name?

"Turkish flow" will become a key gas pipeline for the region. This was stated by the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey Berat Albayrak at the 22 World Petroleum Congress in Istanbul.

"Turkish flow" will be key for all segments in the region and in terms of diversifying energy routes. We are negotiating with our partners, and we ourselves are an important partner, "the head of the Turkish Energy Ministry said.

According to the leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund (NEFE)Igor Yushkov, It is the Russian project that becomes the main southern gas corridor to Europe.

Brussels has long made and relies on gas from the Caspian region as an alternative to Russian supplies. At first, however, the attempt to implement the Nabucco project on deliveries of Turkmen gas to Europe ended in failure. It turned out to be unprofitable, and Russia and Iran blocked the passage of the gas pipeline between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan through the Caspian Sea. Next, the European Commission made exceptions to the Third Energy Package for the "Southern Gas Corridor," according to which Azerbaijani gas from the Caspian Sea should "go" to the EU countries in 2019. But it's not enough for Baku, says Igor Yushkov.

At the World Petroleum Congress in Istanbul, the president of SOCARRovnag AbdullayevSaid that Azerbaijan is ready to meet the needs of Europe in gas. However, he did not specify the volumes that Baku will be able to send to the EU countries.

"Azerbaijan has long-term obligations. 10 billion cubic meters will be supplied to Europe and another 6 billion to Turkey. And it's good if the country fulfills these obligations, "the expert says. Prior to this, the deputy chairman of the board of GazpromAlexander MedvedevSaid that Azerbaijan does not have enough gas, as it is forced to pump it back into the fields to support oil production. This is why Gazprom and the state company Socar are currently negotiating to increase the supply of Russian gas to Azerbaijan. Now the Russian holding has a contract for the supply of up to 2 billion cubic meters of gas per year. In Socar they are interested to increase the volume by another 3-5 billion. The last round of negotiations was held in early July in St. Petersburg.

Another evidence that the supply of the "Southern Gas Corridor" is not all that smooth, may be the statement of the Turkish Foreign Minister. In the past yearMevlut CavusogluSaid that on the first line of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline there will be an annual flow of 16 billion cubic meters, and surpluses - what is not in demand by Turkey - will go to TANAP (Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline across Turkey, part of the "Southern Gas Corridor" - Ed. .).

The total capacity of the two threads of the "Turkish flow" will be about 32 billion cubic meters of gas - twice as much as the "Southern Gas Corridor". And if the expansion of gas supplies for the latter - the connection of Turkmenistan and Israel, even more issues, then the fate of the second thread of the Russian project seems to be close to the resolution. Last week, Gazprom Export and Hungary's Hungarian Gas Trade Ltd signed a memorandum of understanding and, according to the Hungarian agency MTI, an agreement on the supply of gas through the Turkish Stream. It is about 8 billion cubic meters. Hungary considers gas deliveries on the "Turkish Stream" the most optimal scenario, since other channels - through Romania or Croatia - have not been worked out yet, said at a meeting with the Chairman of the Board of "Gazprom"Alexey MillerMinister of Economic Relations and Foreign Affairs of HungaryPeter Siyarto. The delivery of the main volumes of the "Turkish flow" is a change in the route of deliveries of already contracted gas, which is now being supplied by transit through Ukraine. Last year they amounted to 5,7 billion cubic meters.

In any case, 8 billion cubic meters is already half the load of the second thread of "Turkish flow", which was originally intended for the supply of Russian gas to European countries. As the head of the Ministry of Energy of RussiaAlexander Novak, Now considers two routes of supplies from Turkey - towards Greece and Italy and Bulgaria. In Sofia, as is known, they plan to create a gas hub in which Russian gas should become the main source.

"This is one of the options along with the Poseidon project through Greece to Italy or even the expansion of the TAP (Trans Adriatic gas pipeline from Turkey to Italy via Greece, part of the Southern Gas Corridor - ed.), For example. Now the option through Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary has gained a good pace, since after the forced cancellation of a large "South Stream", these countries were out of serious plans to develop the gas transportation infrastructure and access to guaranteed sources of gas supplies, "says the deputy director of the NESFAlexey Grivach.

According to the expert, now the main issue with the supply of gas through Bulgaria to Hungary through Serbia is connected with the internal infrastructure in the EU. "Will they get the necessary infrastructure in the framework of the Third Energy Package for receiving gas from the second thread of the Turkish Stream, this is the most important question whether there will be enough political and financial resources. While there is no answer to it, "the expert believes. Recall that last week the President of SerbiaAlexander VučićInvited Russia to take part in the construction of an interconnector with Bulgaria.

Gas from the Turkish Stream (green) can go both to Hungary (the red line), and to Greece and Italy along the Trans Adriatic gas pipeline (blue line) or a separate highway

US Secretary of StateRex TillersonSaid at the World Petroleum Congress that projects such as the Southern Gas Corridor and the EastMed (Israel-Cyprus-Greece-Italy) underwater pipeline project will allow Europe to diversify its energy sources, thereby improving its energy security. However, the "Turkish Stream" today is the most realistic project for a significant increase in gas supplies to Europe along the southern route. The first line of the gas pipeline, as the head of GazpromAlexey Miller, Will be launched next spring, and the second - in 2019. In 2020, the launch of the "Southern Gas Corridor" in the European direction is expected, but the Russian project will be able to give the EU countries 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year and the Azerbaijani one for 10 billion. Taking into account the growth of gas consumption in Europe and the decrease of Russian gas transit through Ukraine plays a role.

According to the Platts agency, in 2016, gas consumption in Europe increased by 6% to about 447 billion cubic meters and this year will continue to grow. At the same time, the share of imports is growing, as domestic extraction falls. For example, because of the threat of an earthquake in the Groningen field in the Netherlands, production was cut from 27 billion to 24 billion last year. In the meantime, according to experts, other main sources of gas supplies to the EU, except Russia, today can only maintain current performance. It's about Norway and Algeria. And American LNG still significantly loses competition to pipeline gas in price and is purchased one-time. Therefore, Russian gas will continue to be the main source of growth in supplies in the coming years. This year, its imports to the EU grew by 12% and, as already reportedEADaily, Gazprom may not have enough bypass gas pipelines, Turkish flow and Nord Stream-2 to meet the growing needs of the Old World.

A source: EADaily

Tags: Turkish flow, Gas, Economy, Russia, Europe, Analytics

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