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12.07.2017 - 06: 19

"Turkish flow" is gathering volumes: the main gas route to the south of the EU will change its name?

"Turkish flow" will become a key gas pipeline for the region. This was stated by the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey Berat Albayrak at the 22 World Petroleum Congress in Istanbul.

"Turkish flow" will be key for all segments in the region and in terms of diversifying energy routes. We are negotiating with our partners, and we ourselves are an important partner, "the head of the Turkish Energy Ministry said.

According to the leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund (NEFE)Igor Yushkov, It is the Russian project that becomes the main southern gas corridor to Europe.

Брюссель долгое время делал и делает ставку на газ из Каспийского региона как альтернативу российским поставкам. Вначале, однако, неудачей закончилась попытка осуществить проект Nabucco по поставкам туркменского газа в Европу. Он оказался нерентабельным, а Россия и Иран заблокировали прохождение газопровода между Туркменией и Азербайджаном по Каспийскому морю. Следом Еврокомиссия сделала исключения из Третьего энергопакета для «Южного газового коридора», по которому азербайджанский газ из Каспийского моря должен «пойти» в страны ЕС в 2019 году. Но его у Баку мало, замечает Игорь Юшков.

At the World Petroleum Congress in Istanbul, the president of SOCARRovnag AbdullayevSaid that Azerbaijan is ready to meet the needs of Europe in gas. However, he did not specify the volumes that Baku will be able to send to the EU countries.

"Azerbaijan has long-term obligations. 10 billion cubic meters will be supplied to Europe and another 6 billion to Turkey. And it's good if the country fulfills these obligations, "the expert says. Prior to this, the deputy chairman of the board of GazpromAlexander MedvedevSaid that Azerbaijan does not have enough gas, as it is forced to pump it back into the fields to support oil production. This is why Gazprom and the state company Socar are currently negotiating to increase the supply of Russian gas to Azerbaijan. Now the Russian holding has a contract for the supply of up to 2 billion cubic meters of gas per year. In Socar they are interested to increase the volume by another 3-5 billion. The last round of negotiations was held in early July in St. Petersburg.

Another evidence that the supply of the "Southern Gas Corridor" is not all that smooth, may be the statement of the Turkish Foreign Minister. In the past yearMevlut CavusogluSaid that on the first line of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline there will be an annual flow of 16 billion cubic meters, and surpluses - what is not in demand by Turkey - will go to TANAP (Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline across Turkey, part of the "Southern Gas Corridor" - Ed. .).

Общая мощность двух ниток «Турецкого потока» составит около 32 млрд кубометров газа — вдвое больше, чем «Южного газового коридора». И если по расширению поставок газа по последнему — подключение Туркмении и Израиля, еще больше вопросов, то судьба второй нитки российского проекта, похоже, близка к разрешению. На прошлой неделе «Газпром экспорт» и венгерская Hungarian Gas Trade Ltd подписали меморандум о взаимопонимании и, по данным венгерского агентства MTI, соглашение о поставках газа по «Турецкому потоку». Речь идет о 8 млрд кубометров. Венгрия считает поставки газа по «Турецкому потоку» самым оптимальным сценарием, поскольку другие каналы — через Румынию или Хорватию — еще не проработаны, заявил на встрече с председателем правления «Газпрома»Alexey MillerMinister of Economic Relations and Foreign Affairs of HungaryPeter Siyarto. The delivery of the main volumes of the "Turkish flow" is a change in the route of deliveries of already contracted gas, which is now being supplied by transit through Ukraine. Last year they amounted to 5,7 billion cubic meters.

In any case, 8 billion cubic meters is already half the load of the second thread of "Turkish flow", which was originally intended for the supply of Russian gas to European countries. As the head of the Ministry of Energy of RussiaAlexander Novak, Now considers two routes of supplies from Turkey - towards Greece and Italy and Bulgaria. In Sofia, as is known, they plan to create a gas hub in which Russian gas should become the main source.

"This is one of the options along with the Poseidon project through Greece to Italy or even the expansion of the TAP (Trans Adriatic gas pipeline from Turkey to Italy via Greece, part of the Southern Gas Corridor - ed.), For example. Now the option through Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary has gained a good pace, since after the forced cancellation of a large "South Stream", these countries were out of serious plans to develop the gas transportation infrastructure and access to guaranteed sources of gas supplies, "says the deputy director of the NESFAlexey Grivach.

According to the expert, now the main issue with the supply of gas through Bulgaria to Hungary through Serbia is connected with the internal infrastructure in the EU. "Will they get the necessary infrastructure in the framework of the Third Energy Package for receiving gas from the second thread of the Turkish Stream, this is the most important question whether there will be enough political and financial resources. While there is no answer to it, "the expert believes. Recall that last week the President of SerbiaAlexander VučićInvited Russia to take part in the construction of an interconnector with Bulgaria.

Gas from the Turkish Stream (green) can go both to Hungary (the red line), and to Greece and Italy along the Trans Adriatic gas pipeline (blue line) or a separate highway

US Secretary of StateRex TillersonSaid at the World Petroleum Congress that projects such as the Southern Gas Corridor and the EastMed (Israel-Cyprus-Greece-Italy) underwater pipeline project will allow Europe to diversify its energy sources, thereby improving its energy security. However, the "Turkish Stream" today is the most realistic project for a significant increase in gas supplies to Europe along the southern route. The first line of the gas pipeline, as the head of GazpromAlexey Miller, Will be launched next spring, and the second - in 2019. In 2020, the launch of the "Southern Gas Corridor" in the European direction is expected, but the Russian project will be able to give the EU countries 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year and the Azerbaijani one for 10 billion. Taking into account the growth of gas consumption in Europe and the decrease of Russian gas transit through Ukraine plays a role.

По данным агентства Platts, в 2016 году потребление газа в Европе выросло на 6% до около 447 млрд кубометров и в этом году продолжит расти. При этом растет доля импорта, так как падает внутрення добыча. Например, из-за угрозы землетрясения на Гронингенском месторождении в Нидерландах снизили добычу с 27 млрд до 24 млрд в прошлом году. Тем временем, по мнению экспертов, другие основные источники поставок газа в ЕС, кроме России, могут сегодня лишь поддерживать текущие показатели. Речь идет о Норвегии и Алжире. А американский СПГ по-прежнему значительно проигрывает конкуренцию трубопроводному газу в цене и закупается разово. Поэтому российский газ продолжит оставаться основным источником роста поставок в ближайшие годы. В этом году его импорт в ЕС вырос на 12% и, как уже сообщалоEADaily, Gazprom may not have enough bypass gas pipelines, Turkish flow and Nord Stream-2 to meet the growing needs of the Old World.

A source: EADaily

Tags: Turkish flow, Gas, Economy, Russia, Europe, Analytics