Gambit in chess - figures of sacrifice for the sake of a better position; in a broader sense - winning quality price concessions amount. The large Syrian board a Turkish gambit brilliantly played the local Kurds, have agreed on the biggest deal of the war with the central government.
This happened after the save, however from the Islamic State (IG), a major city of Al-Bab in the northern province of Aleppo, the Turks announced that further controlled by them free Syrian Army (FSA) will go to manbij that kept the Kurds. This was stated by R. Erdogan, who said that taking manbij necessary to create all along the northern Syrian border "security zone" and the attack on the "capital" of the IG Raqqa. According to him, the need of this he urged during a personal meeting and D. Trump. However, reports that Americans patronizes Syrian Democratic Forces (SDS), which are based on the Kurds, Ankara approved intentions, it has been reported. And no wonder, since the SDS achieved on the Syrian theater of operations impressive success. Hardly Washington want to abandon an ally for the sake of expansion planned by the Turks "security zone" in which many saw the prototype of the type of protectorate of Northern Cyprus.
But the most severe blow to Ankara's plans have caused themselves Kurds. In early March, they reached an agreement with Damascus on the establishment of joint control in the liberated them from the IG territory west of the Euphrates, including manbij. It is understood that the government will accommodate parts primarily in the borderlands between Kurds and pro-Turkish forces. With Damascus must also begin the restoration of the former local authorities. Start the transfer of control over a number of settlements Damascus Military Council confirmed manbij (although later the body set up under the auspices of the Americans, called the agreement limited, apparently, American advisers hinder the process).
The pledge of future cooperation the Syrian government has sent to these territories convoy with food and medicine. It is assumed that the column could also carry arms and ammunition for the Kurdish groups. In addition, according to some sources, the arrangement provides that the Syrian army can use and other areas controlled by the Kurds as a springboard for an attack on the IG if necessary. The agreement largely reproduces the terms of the already existing cooperation of the Syrian government army and the Kurds in other areas, particularly in the Kurdish-populated Aleppo and Afrin canton quarter Sheikh Maqsood. There's even acted opposite order: without impossibility due to the lack of people to place garrisons in all its liberated areas, the government army trusted this mission in some cases, the Kurdish groups. Turkey pushed the Syrian Kurds to interact with B. Assad is not only the threat of attacks on manbij, but its overall strategy. Driving a wedge between the two enclaves occupied by the Kurds, the Turks forced them to establish links with each other through the territory controlled by the Government and with the assistance of the government.
Perhaps held to talk about the strategic alliance between Damascus and the Kurds so far, but there is a mutually beneficial cooperation. And it can play a decisive role in the final stages of the war. It allows the Russian side is safe to say that if the United States will continue to fluctuate on cooperation with Russia in the fight against the IG, it will cope without them. Just not in the way.
Israeli military experts believe that the Syrian Kurds have "cooled" to the United States and began to look more toward Moscow and Damascus. The Kurds are tired of waiting for Washington to work out finally, the strategy in Syria and more actively intervene in the events. They are also not satisfied with the limited amount of supplies from the Americans. Instead of advanced US weapons to them mainly come outdated Soviet models of weapons like rifles AK-47. Even more Kurds are concerned Washington was not ready to protect them from the Turkish threat, and the prospect of the establishment of mutual understanding between Erdogan and Trump. Leaders of Syrian Kurds have come to the conclusion that their sacrifice for the sake of American soldiers, and not their own interests. In this situation, Moscow seems to them the best choice.
At the Ankara agreement between Damascus and the Kurds sobering. They did not violate the agreement reached between Ankara and Moscow agreement on mutual non-aggression and pro-Turkish PAS government of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), and on the division between the two control lines in the north-eastern Syria. Turks deliberately left below these agreements, the territory controlled by the Kurds in order to preserve the possibility of an attack on them. And miscalculated. If along the borders of these areas will be the CAA, then this site will automatically extend the obligations undertaken by Ankara in a dialogue with Moscow. Violate them unilaterally, and even in the absence of Washington's support for Turkey hardly dare.
Turkish experts with disappointment and somewhat exaggerating the state that "the United States, Russia, the terrorist organization PYD (VTS. - DM) and Bashar al-Assad's regime joined together "to prevent the advancement of the Turkish army and the troops of the Syrian opposition to manbij. Director of Research in the field of security of the Turkish Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) Murat Yeshiltash states, for example, that Moscow is trying to prevent the continuation of the operation "Shield of the Euphrates." According to him, a similar action against Ankara and the US, "pointing to the northern areas manbij special forces and armored vehicles."
With all that Turkey has to be considered; Prime Minister B. Yıldırım said that Ankara is preferable to manbij controlled Syrian army, not Kurdish forces. Turkish Foreign Minister M. Cavusoglu, commenting on the Kurdish-Syrian agreement, acknowledged the existence of an agreement with Russia to prevent clashes between the CAA and CCA. Nevertheless, he tried to put the agreement into question the data, arguing that while the Kurdish parties have not seen government troops as they move further east. The argument is weak, as the troops enter long. The main thing that Cavusoglu actually recognized the spread of the agreement with Moscow on the situation.
Overall, Turkey's strategy in the Syrian conflict has reached a deadlock. Ankara biased to the world and its own public opinion for a decisive struggle against the IG, but now it turns out that the way to Raqqa and through the territories controlled by the Syrian government, and through Kurdish territory it is closed. Stay Turkish troops in northern Syria at the Al-Baba becomes ambiguous, and in no way justified. It is necessary to look for other options and save face.
I think that for this Erdogan, reported news agency, is seeking an urgent meeting with Vladimir Putin. But the Turks should understand that their continued involvement in the Syrian conflict is now limited. No doubt, it was helpful to the continuation of the Turkish raids of aviation on the IG position; We would appreciate the forces fighting with IG in Syria, and Turkish material support, including military supplies, but on land transactions is probably better to forget.