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19.04.2017 - 10: 09

Turkish referendum passed. What's next?

16 April, the Republic of Turkey held a referendum on the transition to a presidential form of government. According to preliminary data, during the reform voted slightly more than 51% of voters. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, commenting on the results of the referendum, said:"We have fought against all enemies, we were attacked by those who have the Crusaders outlook. But as a nation we survived, we can only bow before our holy places, and nothing to anyone ". The changes will come into effect in November 2019 years.

Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) expect that they will gain about 60% of votes, which did not happen. The best result of reform supporters demonstrated in central Anatolia. In the west of the country, in major cities (Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir), in the resort areas of Antalya and Kurdish areas in the east of Turkey, the election results were not in favor of the ruling party. As observers note, Erdogan bridgehead shrunk - it remains only with the inner Anatolia.

Note that the referendum was not obligatory, - Erdogan himself he wanted to emphasize that his nation supports. To amend the constitution was enough to get a constitutional majority in the parliament. Make it could be concluded short-term alliance with Devlet Bahçeli and MHP.

Observers note strengthening the position of the Kemalist Republican People's Party, which "was able to win over the electorate of almost all that protects the secular structure of the state." Victory by a margin of 1%, which can be referred to within the statistical error, is not convincing and leaves room for the destabilization of the political situation throughout the reform. AKP has used all the administrative resources, who was in her hands, and was not able to win a landslide victory. This is clearly and publicly showed weakness, he gave hope to win their opponents. I am sure that the opponents of the ruling party of political Islam will take advantage of the situation.

On the other hand, the amendments to the Constitution still accepted. And the winners will perform their election promises. Mustafa Shentop, deputy head of the SEP and chairman of the constitutional commission in parliament, told a briefing for foreign journalists ahead of the referendum:"Turkey - the car. For decades, the country was ruled not only the driver - the government, but also passenger - the army. We want to remove the passenger 'forever.

17 April, immediately after the announcement of official results of the referendum, Erdogan said that he"I intend to immediately discuss the issue of the return to the Constitution of budget execution with the Prime Minister Binali Yyldyrymom and the opposition MHP Chairman Devlet Bahceli". Let me remind you that the abolition of the death penalty in Turkey was held in 2004 year by Erdogan - in order to enter Turkey in the EU. European politicians of different ranks repeatedly stated that if Turkey return the death penalty talks on Turkey's EU membership will be immediately discontinued. And shortly before the referendum, Erdogan promised that in case of adoption of amendments to the Constitution in a referendum 16 April, he will hold a new referendum - on the refusal of entry into the EU. If won by a wide margin (receiving, say, 70%) in this referendum Erdogan's position, his political position will vosstanvoleny much.

The question arises: what are the relations between Turkey and Europe after the referendum? I believe that these relations will not change in the medium term. Turkey indeed at any moment can "open the floodgates" and "east spills onto Europe". On the other hand, no matter how weak it may seem to Europe in her hands are real economic, technological, military and political leverage on Turkey. After all, if Turkey goes on the attack, such as Germany, who rebuke Angela Merkel a little less reserved support of the Iraqi Kurds? Europe and Turkey are inextricably linked with each other, and each of them tries to use this connection. This relationship clearly demonstrated the pre-election campaign.

The memorable held a political campaign? First of all, a sharp aggravation of relations between Turkey and the European Union. After the refusal of European countries allow agitators AKP publicly address the Turks living in Europe, the government of Turkey to play the "ethnic card", creating his image statist patriots. Erdogan has repeatedly described the symptoms and juicy real reviving European fascism (here he did not have to invent anything). Not without speculation on the religious theme. For example, a meeting of heads of European countries dedicated to 60-years anniversary of the EU Education, with the participation of the Pope, he declared Christian conspiracy against the Muslims, from which concluded that Europe is preparing for a "new crusade".

After receiving such a gorgeous gift from Erdogan, European fascists skillfully implemented the resulting political opportunity. As a result of increased electoral position and Erdogan in Turkey, and the Nazis in Europe. Is this the case of political symbiosis?

Pay attention to the reaction to a referendum. West recognized the referendum - Trump congratulated Erdogan on his victory. As it may seem strange, since Erdogan's victory and congratulated those who Donald Trump called the main enemy of the free world - the largest Islamist groups fighting in Syria. According to Al-Masandra agency, Erdogan congratulated the first group "Ahrar al-Sham", "Jaish al-Islam", "Failak al-Sham" and "Sultan Murad." A little later tightened latecomers "Hayed Tahrir al-Sham" - former "Dzhabhat en-Nusra", it - "Al-Qaeda in Syria" (banned in Russia under all names). This terrorist group has declared:"We welcome the changes that will promote Turkey in the Sunni Muslim world". LIH (banned in Russia) at the time of writing this article gave no comment on the referendum events.

Islamists optimism is understandable. Recep Tayyip Erdogan - a disciple of Necmettin Erbakan, one of the founders of "political Islam." In his political activities they both rely on the Turkish Sufi tarrikaty, krovyny interest them - increasing Islamization of Turkey. Erdogan believes in political Islam. Let us recall a poem by Ziya Gökalp, whom reading in 1998 year, Erdogan received a prison sentence:"Mosque - are our barracks, the minarets - our bayonets, the domes - our helmets, the Muslims - our soldiers".

It is clear that in the West there are forces interested in the Islamization of Turkey. Stanislav Tarasov in his article "The rake for the Turkic states," written in December 2016, gives the following interesting quote from the German press. WeeklyDie Zeitnotes the:"There is a complex geopolitical reshuffle. Fading shadow of the Ottoman Empire, which for several centuries organically integrated into a complex web of European forces and interests, and there comes the dawn of the Seljuks. It closes the door for Turkey and other candidates from the Muslim countries of North Africa and the Middle East to the EU ". Theme continues German business magazineWirtschaftswoche"Instead of taking Turkey into the EU in the hope of using it as a bulwark in the fight against Islamic fundamentalism, we should provide full support to this country in order for Turkey to become a leader in its own - Islamic - civilization". The logic is clear: you can not stop - to lead. Why Europe does not create its own "looking" for the Islamic world? However, such global turn in the policy do not come without a fight. European opponents of the project to create a "sultanate" in Turkey so criticize their pro-Islamist opponents. from the magazineDie Zeit"German politicians, willing to pose as victims of Erdogan in the evening ... [even to summarize the official results]] unnecessarily agreed that the results of the referendum were in favor of Erdogan '(Article "The Death of the Turkish Republic" dated April 17). And really, why the rush? Why not bargain with Erdogan in recognition of the referendum results?

Note also that during the election campaign for the US presidency, that Hillary Clinton acted as an apologist for political Islam. And Trump called himself an opponent of Khilafat. Is Trump congratulated Erdogan broke and that his campaign promise?

We have already noted that the election campaign, Erdogan and the AKP carried out in alliance with the opposition Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet and her melons. In debate with Europe Erdogan used the image of the Crusaders for the activation of the pro-Islamic AKP electorate. And for him to mobilize the Union in carrying out the reform of the IPA component intended nationalist rhetoric. Therefore, Erdogan's victory - a victory and melons too.

Devlet melons - the successor to the legendary founder of Turkic nationalist "Gray Wolves" - Arpaslana Tyurkesh. Ideologically, the nationalists - for pan-Trump is much closer than the representatives of political Islam. The main foreign enemy Trump - China. But the first attack pantyurksitov was aimed specifically at China. In the second half 19 century in Chinese Turkestan there Yettishar Turkish state with the support of Turkey (Transylvania). However, at the end of 1870-x Qin Dynasty, overcoming discord, could return under its influence Xinjiang. With these developments sesquicentennial ago echo recent statements LIH (banned in Russia), calling for the release of Uighurs from China. If we speak about the relevance of the agreement Sykes - Picot in the Middle East, why in the history of Central Asia can not fall even a little deeper? Why is the "gray wolves" do not use political opportunity that had fallen as a result of the election Trump?

Think about the special role of the Pan-Turkish referendum make the following events that have taken place last week in Central Asia. A few days before the referendum (12 April), Nursultan Nazarbayev publicly announced the transfer of the Kazakh alphabet to Latin. The next day, a similar statement was made in Kyrgyzstan. Widely known words Nazarbayev uttered at the beginning of 90-x pan-Turkic emissary:"We came out of one empire and do not want another". Translation to Latin language is the inevitable shift of public policy in favor of pan-Turkism. So it was a hundred years ago, as it is now. Why Nursultan so radically changed his position just before the referendum? Possible interpretation of this act as a podigryvanie HDPE in vnutrituretskih conflicts. What are these conflicts?

Alpaslan Celik, the killer Russian pilot Oleg Peshkov, along with other fighters pose with weapons and a welcome characteristic of Turkish neo-fascist organization of "Gray Wolves" on the background of the flag of the Uighur terrorist organization "East Turkistan", banned in the People's Republic of China.

A few days before the election, Devlet Bahçeli said that after the referendum in the Turkish authorities will try to convert the country into a federal system. The day before the referendum, 15 April, Erdogan commented on the announcement:"The federal system on the agenda is not necessary, it will not. We are the biggest supporters of the unitary structure of Turkey ". And the Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, speaking at a rally in Ankara, said that he would resign if a change in the Constitution will provoke a transition state in a federal system. He added that the federal system is an extremely sensitive issue for Turkey in the background of the problems with separatists in the south-eastern regions populated by Kurds. Criticism Devlet Bahceli continued after the elections. AKP members accused him that "he did not meet expectations" and now need to "strengthen the split within the IPA." Stanislav Tarasov follows summarizes the reflections of Turkish experts:"AKP, entered into an alliance with the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) Devlet melons, made a strategic mistake". Note that the last elections and the MHP does not lossless. Turkish nationalist movement split, Bahceli was attacked by his young companions.

Subject federalization Turkey is closely linked with its entry into the European Union. In the early 2000-x EU offered Ankara to hold federalization, within its framework to reconcile with the Kurds, to give them autonomy and in this way to join the EU. Later, French President Nikolya Sarkozi spoke with the idea of ​​integration with the EU is only "part of Turkey", considering the rest of the buffer zone controlled. In view of these plans does not look meaningless statement by the Minister of Economy of Turkey Nihat Zeybekchi made by him in September 2016. In it he argued that"The purpose of the attempted coup in Turkey was the country profile". I think it is possible to assume the existence in Turkey of the elite strata, according to detach from the western part of Turkey and to enter into its composition in Europe. In this case, the statement Devlet Bahceli federalization represents a game with HDPE kemalistkoy Republican Party. Like, you will enter the West in Europe, and we were able to implement the ideas of Pan-Turkism in the East. It is clear that such a friendship HDPE and "Kemalists" exists at the expense of the AKP and Erdogan (ie at the expense of political Islam). The direction of the hypothesis lies next news.

In Syria, there was "special forces of the USSR": The men from Central Asia and South Caucasus arrived in Hama

17.04.2017 http://www.centrasia.ru/news.php?st=1492421040

... According to military sources, to combat militant groups ... as well as sudden unexpected lightning attack on the enemy lines, in the province of Hama began to arrive some units of the new organization"TURAN"(Corresponding chevrons they wear on their uniform). Total of up to 800 1200 people. According to witnesses, mostly squad is made up of representatives of Central Asia, as in the units were observed by representatives of the North Caucasus, Russia and the Caucasus, allegedly Azerbaijanis. Different uniforms, from the Soviet "Afghan women" to the modern "multikamov", as well as a variety of weapons from the Soviet voenproma to weapons of foreign manufacture, may indicate that the men of these units are likely to belong to the current fashionable innovations in modern warfare - private military companies. According to military sources, according to the plans of command of the unit, up to 400 people, as soon as possible go to the section of the route that connects Aleppo and al-thawrah. One of the objectives of the maneuver - support government troops during the offensive in the south-east of Aleppo province in the direction of Raqqa, which is scheduled to be completed by the end of this month.The emergence of such groups on the side of the government forces should be the signal for militants...

For Russia, the worst outcome of the political struggle in Turkey - the coming to power Panturkists. Panturanism sharpened against Russia. China is going to weaken it, tearing off pieces of it. And with Russia panturanism intends to wage a war of annihilation. Supporters of the Grand Tour has not yet come to power in Turkey. But they break it. Their political positions as a result is not as convincing victory in the referendum Erdogan significantly increased. At the time of wonder and not specifically whether they did win with questionable 51% to priopustit Erdogan? If so, Erdogan will retaliate. We will follow the Turkish event.

A source: Blog 9_terik

Author: 9_terik

Tags: Turkey, Erdogan, politics, referendum, Middle East Analyst