16 April, the Republic of Turkey held a referendum on the transition to a presidential form of government. According to preliminary data, during the reform voted slightly more than 51% of voters. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, commenting on the results of the referendum, said:"We have fought against all enemies, we were attacked by those who have the Crusaders outlook. But as a nation we survived, we can only bow before our holy places, and nothing to anyone ". The changes will come into effect in November 2019 years.
Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) expect that they will gain about 60% of votes, which did not happen. The best result of reform supporters demonstrated in central Anatolia. In the west of the country, in major cities (Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir), in the resort areas of Antalya and Kurdish areas in the east of Turkey, the election results were not in favor of the ruling party. As observers note, Erdogan bridgehead shrunk - it remains only with the inner Anatolia.
Note that the referendum was not obligatory, - Erdogan himself he wanted to emphasize that his nation supports. To amend the constitution was enough to get a constitutional majority in the parliament. Make it could be concluded short-term alliance with Devlet Bahçeli and MHP.
Observers note the strengthening of the positions of the Kemalist People's Republican Party, which "managed to win over to its side almost the entire electorate, defending the secular system of the state." The victory with a margin of 1%, which can be attributed to the limits of statistical error, is unconvincing and leaves room for destabilization of the political situation throughout the reform process. The AKP used the entire administrative resource, which it had in its hands, and could not win a convincing victory. This she publicly and clearly showed weakness, gave hope for victory to his opponents. I am sure that the opponents of the ruling party of political Islam will take advantage of this situation.
On the other hand, the amendments to the Constitution still accepted. And the winners will perform their election promises. Mustafa Shentop, deputy head of the SEP and chairman of the constitutional commission in parliament, told a briefing for foreign journalists ahead of the referendum:"Turkey - the car. For decades, the country was ruled not only the driver - the government, but also passenger - the army. We want to remove the passenger 'forever.
17 April, immediately after the announcement of official results of the referendum, Erdogan said that he"I intend to immediately discuss the issue of the return to the Constitution of budget execution with the Prime Minister Binali Yyldyrymom and the opposition MHP Chairman Devlet Bahceli". Let me remind you that the abolition of the death penalty in Turkey was carried out in 2004 by Erdogan himself, with the aim of introducing Turkey to the EU. European politicians of different ranks have repeatedly stated that if Turkey regains the death penalty, the negotiations on Turkey's membership in the EU will be immediately curtailed. Erdogan promised, shortly before the referendum, that if the Constitution was amended at the referendum on 16 April, he would hold a new referendum on the issue of refusing entry into the European Union. If Erdogan's position wins with a big advantage in this referendum (having, say, 70%), his political positions will in many respects be rebuilt.
The question arises: what will be the relations between Turkey and Europe after the last referendum? I believe that in the medium term these relations will not change. Turkey can at any time "open the floodgates," and "the East will be poured into Europe." On the other hand, no matter how weak Europe might seem, real economic, technological, military and political levers of influence on Turkey are in its hands. After all, if Turkey goes on an attack, for example, on Germany, then who will forbid Angela Merkel to give Iraqi Kurds a little less restraint? Europe and Turkey are inextricably linked, and each of them is trying to use this connection. This connection was vividly demonstrated by the pre-election company.
What was the memory of the last political campaign? First of all, sharp aggravation of relations between Turkey and the European Union. After the refusal of European countries to allow the AKP agitators to publicly speak to the Turks living in Europe, the Turkish government played the "national card", creating an image of patriotic statesmen. Erdogan repeatedly and succulently described the symptoms of a truly reviving European fascism (here he had nothing to invent, it was not necessary). There were also speculations on the religious theme. Thus, the meeting of the heads of European countries on the 60-th anniversary of the formation of the EU, with the participation of the Pope, he declared a Christian conspiracy against Muslims, from which he concluded that Europe is preparing for a "new crusade".
After receiving such a gorgeous gift from Erdogan, European fascists skillfully implemented the resulting political opportunity. As a result of increased electoral position and Erdogan in Turkey, and the Nazis in Europe. Is this the case of political symbiosis?
Let's pay attention to the reaction to the referendum. The referendum is recognized by the West, - Trump congratulated Erdogan on his victory. However strange it may seem, Erdogan's victory was also congratulated by those whom Donald Trump called the main enemy of the free world-the largest Islamist groups fighting in Syria. According to Al-Masandra, Erdogan was the first to be congratulated by the groups Akhrar ash Sham, Jaysh al-Islam, Failak ash Sham and Sultan Murad. A little later, the delayed "Hayed Tahrir ash Sham" - the former "Jabhat al-Nusra", the same one - "Al-Qaida in Syria" (it is banned in Russia under all names). This terrorist group stated:"We welcome the changes that will promote Turkey in the Sunni Muslim world". LIH (banned in Russia) at the time of writing this article gave no comment on the referendum events.
Islamists optimism is understandable. Recep Tayyip Erdogan - a disciple of Necmettin Erbakan, one of the founders of "political Islam." In his political activities they both rely on the Turkish Sufi tarrikaty, krovyny interest them - increasing Islamization of Turkey. Erdogan believes in political Islam. Let us recall a poem by Ziya Gökalp, whom reading in 1998 year, Erdogan received a prison sentence:"Mosque - are our barracks, the minarets - our bayonets, the domes - our helmets, the Muslims - our soldiers".
It is clear that in the West there are forces interested in the Islamization of Turkey. Stanislav Tarasov in his article "The rake for the Turkic states," written in December 2016, gives the following interesting quote from the German press. WeeklyDie Zeitnotes the:"There is a complex geopolitical reshuffle. Fading shadow of the Ottoman Empire, which for several centuries organically integrated into a complex web of European forces and interests, and there comes the dawn of the Seljuks. It closes the door for Turkey and other candidates from the Muslim countries of North Africa and the Middle East to the EU ". Theme continues German business magazineWirtschaftswoche: "Instead of taking Turkey into the EU in the hope of using it as a bulwark in the fight against Islamic fundamentalism, we should provide full support to this country in order for Turkey to become a leader in its own - Islamic - civilization". The logic is clear: you can not stop - to lead. Why Europe does not create its own "looking" for the Islamic world? However, such global turn in the policy do not come without a fight. European opponents of the project to create a "sultanate" in Turkey so criticize their pro-Islamist opponents. from the magazineDie Zeit: "German politicians, willing to pose as victims of Erdogan in the evening ... [even to summarize the official results]] unnecessarily agreed that the results of the referendum were in favor of Erdogan '(Article "The Death of the Turkish Republic" dated April 17). And really, why the rush? Why not bargain with Erdogan in recognition of the referendum results?
Note also that during the election campaign for the US presidency, that Hillary Clinton acted as an apologist for political Islam. And Trump called himself an opponent of Khilafat. Is Trump congratulated Erdogan broke and that his campaign promise?
We have already noted that the election campaign, Erdogan and the AKP carried out in alliance with the opposition Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet and her melons. In debate with Europe Erdogan used the image of the Crusaders for the activation of the pro-Islamic AKP electorate. And for him to mobilize the Union in carrying out the reform of the IPA component intended nationalist rhetoric. Therefore, Erdogan's victory - a victory and melons too.
Devlet Bakhchili is the successor of the founder of the "Gray Wolves", the legendary Turkic nationalist, Arpaslan Turkesh. Ideologically, nationalists - pan-Turkists for Trump are much closer than representatives of political Islam. The main foreign policy enemy of Trump is China. But the first attack of pantyurksites was directed to China. In the second half of the 12th century, the Turkic state of Gettyshar (Semigradiya) existed on the territory of Chinese Turkestan with the support of Turkey. However, at the end of the 19, the Qin Dynasty, having overcome the turmoil, was able to regain Xinjiang under its influence. With these events a hundred and fifty years ago, the latest statements of IGIL (forbidden in Russia) call for the release of Uighurs from China. If we are talking about the relevance of the Sykes-Pico agreement in the Middle East, then why in Central Asia history can not fail even deeper? Why do not the "Gray Wolves" take advantage of the political chance that has resulted from the election of Trump?
Think about the special role of the Pan-Turkish referendum make the following events that have taken place last week in Central Asia. A few days before the referendum (12 April), Nursultan Nazarbayev publicly announced the transfer of the Kazakh alphabet to Latin. The next day, a similar statement was made in Kyrgyzstan. Widely known words Nazarbayev uttered at the beginning of 90-x pan-Turkic emissary:"We came out of one empire and do not want another". Translation to Latin language is the inevitable shift of public policy in favor of pan-Turkism. So it was a hundred years ago, as it is now. Why Nursultan so radically changed his position just before the referendum? Possible interpretation of this act as a podigryvanie HDPE in vnutrituretskih conflicts. What are these conflicts?
Alpaslan Celik, the killer Russian pilot Oleg Peshkov, along with other fighters pose with weapons and a welcome characteristic of Turkish neo-fascist organization of "Gray Wolves" on the background of the flag of the Uighur terrorist organization "East Turkistan", banned in the People's Republic of China.
A few days before the election, Devlet Bahçeli said that after the referendum in the Turkish authorities will try to convert the country into a federal system. The day before the referendum, 15 April, Erdogan commented on the announcement:"The federal system on the agenda is not necessary, it will not. We are the biggest supporters of the unitary structure of Turkey ". And the head of government Binali Yildirim, speaking at a rally in Ankara, said that he would resign if changes in the Constitution provoke the state's transition to a federal system. He also added that the federal system is extremely sensitive for Turkey against the backdrop of problems with separatists in the south-eastern regions populated by Kurds. Criticism of Devlet Bahceli continued after the elections. The members of the AKP accused him of "failing to fulfill their hopes" and now it is necessary "to strengthen the split within the IPA". Stanislav Tarasov sums up the reflections of the Turkish experts as follows:"AKP, entered into an alliance with the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) Devlet melons, made a strategic mistake". Note that the last elections and the MHP does not lossless. Turkish nationalist movement split, Bahceli was attacked by his young companions.
Subject federalization Turkey is closely linked with its entry into the European Union. In the early 2000-x EU offered Ankara to hold federalization, within its framework to reconcile with the Kurds, to give them autonomy and in this way to join the EU. Later, French President Nikolya Sarkozi spoke with the idea of integration with the EU is only "part of Turkey", considering the rest of the buffer zone controlled. In view of these plans does not look meaningless statement by the Minister of Economy of Turkey Nihat Zeybekchi made by him in September 2016. In it he argued that"The purpose of the attempted coup in Turkey was the country profile". I think it is possible to assume the existence in Turkey of the elite strata, according to detach from the western part of Turkey and to enter into its composition in Europe. In this case, the statement Devlet Bahceli federalization represents a game with HDPE kemalistkoy Republican Party. Like, you will enter the West in Europe, and we were able to implement the ideas of Pan-Turkism in the East. It is clear that such a friendship HDPE and "Kemalists" exists at the expense of the AKP and Erdogan (ie at the expense of political Islam). The direction of the hypothesis lies next news.
In Syria, there was "special forces of the USSR": The men from Central Asia and South Caucasus arrived in Hama
... According to military sources, to combat militant groups ... as well as sudden unexpected lightning attack on the enemy lines, in the province of Hama began to arrive some units of the new organization"TURAN"(the corresponding chevrons they wear on their form). Total from 800 to 1200 people. According to eyewitnesses, basically the detachment consists of representatives of Central Asia, also representatives of the North Caucasus of Russia and Transcaucasia, presumably Azerbaijanis, were seen in detachments. The different form of clothing, from the Soviet "Afghan" to the modern "multikamov", as well as a variety of weapons, from the Soviet military industry to foreign-made weapons, may indicate that the fighters of these detachments are likely to belong to the now fashionable innovation in modern warfare - private military companies. According to the information of the military source, according to the plans of the command, a part of the detachment, up to 400 people, will immediately go to the section of the route linking Aleppo and Es-Saur in the shortest possible time. One of the purposes of this maneuver is the support of government troops, during the offensive in the south-east direction of Aleppo province towards Rakka, which is planned to be completed by the end of this month.The emergence of such groups on the side of the government forces should be the signal for militants...
For Russia, the worst outcome of the internal political struggle in Turkey is the coming to power of Pan-Turkists. Pan-Turkism is imprisoned against Russia. China is going to weaken, tearing pieces from it. And with Russia, pan-tanism intends to wage a war of annihilation. Supporters of the great Turan have not yet come to power in Turkey. But they are eager for it. Their political position as a result of Erdogan's so not convincing victory in the referendum has significantly increased. At the time to ask the question: did they specifically make a victory with dubious 51% in order to suspend Erdogan? If this is so, then Erdogan will take revenge. We will follow the Turkish events.