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Hamas has no strength for the intifada

Hamas has no strength for the intifada

Tags: Hamas, Palestine, Israel, Middle East, Analytics, Politics

The Palestinian Hamas movement in response to the recognition of Jerusalem has declared a new, third-largest mass anti-israel insurrection on the territory of the autonomy - the so-called intifada. The first two uprisings really brought Israel a lot of problems. But this time, it seems, the Jews will be able to sleep peacefully - the Palestinians probably will not be able to warm up the violence to the previous level. Why?

The Palestinian Hamas movement, led by Ismail Haniyeh, declared a third intifada, his spokesman said on Tuesday. As reported by RIA Novosti, Hamas expects the continuation of the "day of wrath" against the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

The Daily Old published the results of the poll, according to which an absolute majority of Palestinians condemn President Donald Trump, who recognized this ancient city as the capital of a Jewish state. Thus, 91% of the respondents considered that the US decision threatens their interests. At the same time, 45% called for an armed uprising against Israel. As much as they are inclined to a milder form of resistance, urging the leadership of the Palestinian Autonomy to break all ties with Washington and file a lawsuit with the International Criminal Court.

In the meantime, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu complained about the cowardice of some Arab countries.

"It seems that some countries refrain from reacting. We see that some countries of the Islamic world are afraid,

- Cavusoglu quotes Interfax. "If we do not protect Jerusalem today, when?" If we do not protect Jerusalem, one of the most sacred places of Islam, then what will we protect? "He promised that at the summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, scheduled in Istanbul on Wednesday, the Turkish leadership will make a tough statement.

Apparently, the Minister's irritation was caused by the results of the emergency meeting of the League of Arab States, at which the introduction of sanctions against the United States was discussed. As the newspaper VZGLYAD wrote on Sunday, the idea was supported by a number of countries, but the resolution was never included.

Recall that the previous intifada occurred on a large scale and in an organized manner, under the actual leadership of the head of the Palestinian autonomy, Yasser Arafat. However, this time his successor, Mahmoud Abbas, is peace-loving and does not want any rebellions. And the power resources of the Hamas movement, which owns power in the Gaza Strip, will not suffice for a real war. This movement had always dreamed of a full-fledged uprising, so Trump's decision for the leaders of the movement did not change anything. It only turned out to be an extra reason to declare about their old claims, having arranged many thousands of demonstrations.

And the Saudi monarchy, which to some extent takes care of Hamas, does not now seek a war with Israel. On the contrary, Tel Aviv and Riyadh even impose a taciturn situational alliance against a common enemy - Iran.

Therefore, in Israel itself, the threat from the Gaza Strip did not frighten anyone.

"Hamas itself is a non-independent organization, its actions are too dependent on external factors. The main external factor is Egypt, and it is completely not interested in the third intifada, "Israeli political scientist, former head of the Nativ special service Yakov Kedmi told the newspaper VIEW. "The second factor is the Palestinian autonomy, although representatives of Hamas are part of its government."

Kedmi is sure that the local population is not interested in the war with Israel, and this is the most important thing.

"Ordinary Arabs are ready to go to demonstrations, to show how much they are outraged. But most of the Arab population is not ready to move to more active military operations. In general, Hamas has no strength for the intifada, "the Israeli expert predicts. Kedmi expects that demonstrations of protest, small skirmishes of Arab youth with law enforcers will be repeated in the coming days.

"But the intifada is a military action on the verge of terror, and sometimes the border of terror. In this, no one is interested, since such actions are destructive. The Palestinians themselves understand that political actions and demonstrations affect the public opinion of the US and the European Union better than fighting. At the same time, the real intifada will be unequivocally bad in both Europe and the US, especially after what happened in the last year of terror in Europe, "Kedmi summarized.

Tehran no longer owns the Hamas movement

In Moscow, experts also took the Hamas statement more as a "demonstration", rather than real. The head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy Fyodor Lukyanov told the newspaper VIEW:

"I do not think that this intifada will get the support of influential forces in the Arab world. In words, everyone condemns Trump. But everyone now has other problems, and to engage in stimulating the Palestinian struggle is not clear against what no one will. And it's unlikely that Hamas will turn it into a big action, as it was during the first or second intifada. "

Lukyanov stressed that the decision to postpone his embassy was taken by the Americans, and the intifada is directed against the Israelis, so the logic of Hamas is understandable, but "unable to change the decision." "The situation related to the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem and its recognition as the capital of Israel, on the one hand, breaks the familiar framework of the so-called Middle East peace process. On the other hand, in fact, nothing changes ", - the political scientist explained.

Lukyanov does not see an interest in the intifada even from Iran, which is now completely different position than it was during the previous intifadas.

"Earlier, Iran supported Hamas, but in recent years this movement has distanced itself from Tehran - under the influence of Saudi Arabia. This happened with the beginning of the Syrian conflict, when Iran found itself in a dense confrontation with the Arab countries. Then Hamas behaved towards Iran rather dishonestly, spread to the side of the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. Therefore, I'm not sure that Iran now affects Hamas. And why does Tehran have this intifada? This is not on the agenda in any way connected with the Palestinian issue, "the expert concluded.

Alexey Nechaev, Yuri Zainashev
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