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13.04.2017 - 13: 07

Marina unexpected rival may appear Le Pen

Before the presidential election is ten days in France. And as we approach the first round of the situation is totally confused - is now the president has a chance to become already have four candidates. That is all they can reach the second round, and it may very well be that in the end has already 7 May France will choose between two anti-system politicians - Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Name of the future president of France is interesting and important for Russia, for the simple reason - if the Gauls continue trend "Breksita" and Trump, the process of disintegration of the single Atlantic West finally become irreversible.

Continuation of the trend would be the victory of the candidate of the non-system - in this case, Marine Le Pen. This election before the election campaign, in fact, came down to confront Le Pen and others - and it was believed that the head of the National Front lost in the second round of any candidate. More precisely, it was something they wanted to make believe of all - first of all French voters.

But in recent days, more and more clearly seen a new trend - it is possible that as a result of the second round opponent will be the leader of the National Front are not those upon whom is betting most of the French elite. Moreover, this opponent can be just as unacceptable for the elite people, like herself Le Pen.

At the end of last year, many seemed to have a foregone victory of almost any candidate from the Republicans. The ruling socialists had no chance - the impersonal and unpopular President Hollande was not even nominated, and the general irritation from the ruling of the Socialist Party did not give any of its candidates the opportunity to expect victory. Although the most popular politician of France, and then was Marin Le Pen, it was believed that the candidate from the ordinary right, from the Republicans, would outstrip her in the second round. Whoever they are - the former president of Sarkozy or the former premieres Juppe or Fillon. Primary in the Republican Party won in the end Fillon. He was already hurried to declare the future president, but soon Fillon began to drown with the help of scandals around the earnings of his wife, which he once decorated as an assistant. The rolling on Fiona was clearly coordinated by the acting authorities in the person of Hollande and broader, by the entire pro-Atlantic part of the French elite. She had her own candidate - the formally independent Emmanuel Macron.

Former minister of the economy, the existence of which country recognized in 2014-m (when he became a minister and initiated a sensational reform), made a frantic advertising: French press writes about the brilliant 39-old politician, who defies the traditional parties, despite the fact that it is clearly and secretly put various political celebrities. And by March, it turns out that almost catches Macron Le Pen on the ratings. She 23-25%, he 21-23%. That is exactly Macron goes into the second round - and there, as taught by French sociological service, confidently wins Le Pen: almost 60 to 40.

In reality, the real vote of 23 April and 7 May will be very different from the polls - and not only because voters hide their preferences, and sociological services spur the results in favor of the right candidates. The fact is that the electorate of Le Pen is distinguished both by greater loyalty to his candidate, and by a much stronger motivation to go to elections. If among the supporters of Macron the number of those who are sure that will not change him, was about 50 percent, then Le Pen is about 80. Well, the appearance of the largely protest electorate Le Pen is much higher. It may well be that she will come to vote the same 80-90 percent of the electorate, and Macron - 60-70.

So in reality, approximately equal 23-25 percent of Le Pen and Makron may 23 April turned into a huge gap, for example, Le Pen will get 35 percent and Macron - 25.

And that's not the worst option for the elite of the candidate - the worst would be if he did not get into the second round. And this possibility becomes not theoretical. In recent weeks, increasing the rating of Jean-Luc Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 65-year-old leader of the movement "Unconquered France."

A veteran of French politics, a former socialist and collaborator of Mitterrand, the minister at the beginning of this century, becoming in the eyes of the French main leftist candidate. In the last elections in 2012, the Jean-Luc Mélenchon finished fourth - with 11 percent he missed ahead of Le Pen (with 19) and Sarkozy and Hollande, who advanced to the second round. Then Jean-Luc Mélenchon called ultra-left and Le Pen - the far-right, but now they have just left and right.

On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon have no competitors - although technically still 3 10 from other candidates are left spectrum. But neither communist Natali Arto nor Filipp Putu from the New Anti-Capitalist Party can not compete with him - their rankings fluctuate around one percent. The candidate of the Socialist Benua Amon so divorced from reality that his approval rating has fallen below the 10 percent and can slip even lower.

A dedicated and sincere Jean-Luc Mélenchon, actually a communist in their views, was released, according to surveys, the third place - after Le Pen and Makron. Last week, he won the second televised debate, and now support it 18 percent of voters - a percentage higher than Fransua Fiyona. On Friday will be the third and final debate - and if Jean-Luc Mélenchon consolidate its success, it can catch up and overtake the Makron.

Melanshon has a reserve - a part of the socialists can turn to him, turning away from Amun. And the rating of the Macron may fall - especially if on the eve of voting it appears compromising: for example, concerning widespread and published in the press rumors about his homosexual orientation. A few weeks ago, MacRon publicly denied publication, even the surname of his long-term "friend" was called - so that if convincing evidence of the opposite comes true, it will put an end to his presidential ambitions. Not because of "non-traditional orientation" - to this majority of the French are already accustomed to treat neutrally - and because of public lies about this.

If Melanchone bypasses Macron and goes on the second round with Le Pen, a unique situation is created - the elite does not have its own candidate. And 7 May the French have to choose from two antisystemic, unsystematic candidates - the "fascist" Le Pen and the "left radical" Melanchone. In reality, if such a scenario happens, the French Republic will order for a long time to live. That is, the transition to a new political system will begin - not only because Melanchon openly calls for it, insisting on the necessity of convening a constituent assembly, drafting a new constitution and moving from a super-presidential Fifth to a new, Sixth Republic.

Simply, Le Pen, and Melanchon are politicians with their own views, ideology, defending them against the press and the media and the élite. That is, real politicians, not the mixture of puppets of big business and supranational capital, the hereditary ruling bureaucracy that has ruled France for many decades. The ruling elite provokes rejection from the masses - and a riot against the establishment can lead to the victory of an unsystematic candidate in France. In the case of the release of Le Pen and Melanchone in the second round, the victory will most likely be for the leader of the National Front - still, the right-wing voters in France are slightly larger than the leftists.

But the main result of this final will be next, and very painful defeat even the French and supranational establishment. After "Breksita" Trump and French shot may be for Atlantic West "control."

In the meantime, especially anti-Russian French Atlantists already launched a campaign against "double jeopardy" - writer Bernard-Anri Levi, who is known as almost the main French philosopher, although he will remain in history as the chief instigator of the invasion of Libya, writes:

"Notice how, during the debates, Melanchon agrees with Le Pen when she talks about Europe or about NATO. Look at how his words and angry attacks against the elites are similar to the attacks of the ultra-right. "Unruly France," you say? Is it not strange that whenever a people rises against the dictatorship, Melanchon supports dictators, not the people. He is for Putin, not for Navalny. He reduces the struggle for democracy in Syria to a conflict over oil and gas, and the last word is left for Bashar Assad. The struggle of Ukrainians for independence is an "imperialist conspiracy of adventurers-putschists".

Levi equally hated and Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon - he needs the Atlantic, antinational France. Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Le Pen, with all the vast differences in their views, are united not only understand the importance of building a dialogue with Russia and the desire to make France a truly independent from the US but also French patriotism.

By the way, Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon were rivals not only in the presidential election year 2012. In the same 2012-m, a month after the presidential elections, they participated in the parliamentary elections - standing for the National Assembly for the same constituency in the department of Pas-de-Calais.

In the first round, Le Pen gained 42 percent, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon - 21, but eventually became a deputy in the Socialist candidate Philippe Kemel. In the first round he was two percent ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, she came in second with Marin - and it has already won her the difference in the 0,2 percent. And now Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Le Pen have a good chance not only to take revenge, but to win in the entire French political nomenclature.

A source: LOOK

Author: Peter Akopov

Tags: France, President, Election, Marine Le Pen, Policy, Research, Macron, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fillon