Before the presidential election is ten days in France. And as we approach the first round of the situation is totally confused - is now the president has a chance to become already have four candidates. That is all they can reach the second round, and it may very well be that in the end has already 7 May France will choose between two anti-system politicians - Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Name of the future president of France is interesting and important for Russia, for the simple reason - if the Gauls continue trend "Breksita" and Trump, the process of disintegration of the single Atlantic West finally become irreversible.
Continuation of the trend would be the victory of the candidate of the non-system - in this case, Marine Le Pen. This election before the election campaign, in fact, came down to confront Le Pen and others - and it was believed that the head of the National Front lost in the second round of any candidate. More precisely, it was something they wanted to make believe of all - first of all French voters.
But in recent days, more and more clearly seen a new trend - it is possible that as a result of the second round opponent will be the leader of the National Front are not those upon whom is betting most of the French elite. Moreover, this opponent can be just as unacceptable for the elite people, like herself Le Pen.
Even at the end of last year it seemed to many a victory foregone conclusion almost any Republican candidate. The ruling Socialists have had no chance - faceless and unpopular president Hollande is not even nominated, and general irritation of the board of the Socialist Party did not give any of its candidates to expect to win. Although the most popular politician in France and then was Marine Le Pen, it was thought that the candidate of the common law, a Republican, will overtake her in the second round. Whoever that was the - the former president Sarkozy or former prime ministers Juppe and Fillon. Primaries in the Republican Party won in the end Fillon. He has already rushed to announce the future president, but soon began to sink Fillon using scandals earnings of his wife, whom he had once issued a helper. Roll forward to Fillon explicitly coordinate the actions of the authorities in the face of Hollande and the wider whole Atlanticist part of the French elite. We proved that their candidate - formally independent Emmanuel Macron.
Former minister of the economy, the existence of which country recognized in 2014-m (when he became a minister and initiated a sensational reform), made a frantic advertising: French press writes about the brilliant 39-old politician, who defies the traditional parties, despite the fact that it is clearly and secretly put various political celebrities. And by March, it turns out that almost catches Macron Le Pen on the ratings. She 23-25%, he 21-23%. That is exactly Macron goes into the second round - and there, as taught by French sociological service, confidently wins Le Pen: almost 60 to 40.
In reality, the present, the vote of April 23 7 May will be very different from the survey data - and not only because voters hide their preferences, and the sociological service podkruchivayut results in favor of the right candidates. The fact that the electorate of Le Pen is different as the more loyalty to their candidate, and a much stronger motivation to go to the polls. If among the supporters Makron number of those who are confident that will not change him, it was about 50 percent, from Le Pen of about 80. Well, the turnout at the protest electorate largely Le Pen are much higher. It may well be that she will come to vote the same 80-90 percent of the electorate, while Makron - 60-70.
So in reality, approximately equal 23-25 percent of Le Pen and Makron may 23 April turned into a huge gap, for example, Le Pen will get 35 percent and Macron - 25.
And that's not the worst option for the elite of the candidate - the worst would be if he did not get into the second round. And this possibility becomes not theoretical. In recent weeks, increasing the rating of Jean-Luc Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 65-year-old leader of the movement "Unconquered France."
A veteran of French politics, a former socialist and collaborator of Mitterrand, the minister at the beginning of this century, becoming in the eyes of the French main leftist candidate. In the last elections in 2012, the Jean-Luc Mélenchon finished fourth - with 11 percent he missed ahead of Le Pen (with 19) and Sarkozy and Hollande, who advanced to the second round. Then Jean-Luc Mélenchon called ultra-left and Le Pen - the far-right, but now they have just left and right.
On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon have no competitors - although technically still 3 10 from other candidates are left spectrum. But neither communist Natali Arto nor Filipp Putu from the New Anti-Capitalist Party can not compete with him - their rankings fluctuate around one percent. The candidate of the Socialist Benua Amon so divorced from reality that his approval rating has fallen below the 10 percent and can slip even lower.
A dedicated and sincere Jean-Luc Mélenchon, actually a communist in their views, was released, according to surveys, the third place - after Le Pen and Makron. Last week, he won the second televised debate, and now support it 18 percent of voters - a percentage higher than Fransua Fiyona. On Friday will be the third and final debate - and if Jean-Luc Mélenchon consolidate its success, it can catch up and overtake the Makron.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon We have a reserve - for it may take some more of socialist voters turned away from Amun. A rating Makron may fall - especially if on the eve of a vote on it will be dirt, for example, concerning the widespread and published in the press rumors about his homosexuality. A few weeks ago Macron publicly denied publication in which even called the name of his long-term "friend" - so, if now there is clear evidence to the contrary, it will put an end to his presidential ambitions. Not because of the "homosexual" - to that most French people have been taught to treat neutral - but because of the public lie about it.
If Jean-Luc Mélenchon avoids Makron and goes into the second round, along with Le Pen, created a unique situation - the elite does not have a candidate. And 7 May the French will choose between two anti-system, non-system candidates - "fascist" Le Pen and the "radical left" Jean-Luc Mélenchon. In reality, however, if such a scenario happens, the French Republic will be discarded. That is, to begin the transition to a new political system - not only because this openly called Jean-Luc Mélenchon, insisting on the need for convening a constituent assembly, a new constitution and the transition from the Fifth to the super-new, six republics.
Just and Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon - this policy with their own views, ideology, defending them in spite of pressure from the press and vilified and elite. That is the real political leaders, and not the mixture of puppets of big business and supranational capital, hereditary ruling bureaucracy that ruled France for many decades. The ruling elite is rejection of the masses - and rebellion against the establishment can lead to victory in France, non-system candidate. In the case of exit in the second round, Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon victory, is likely to be for the National Front leader - yet right-wing voters slightly larger than the left in France.
But the main result of this final will be next, and very painful defeat even the French and supranational establishment. After "Breksita" Trump and French shot may be for Atlantic West "control."
In the meantime, especially anti-Russian French Atlantists already launched a campaign against "double jeopardy" - writer Bernard-Anri Levi, who is known as almost the main French philosopher, although he will remain in history as the chief instigator of the invasion of Libya, writes:
"Notice how in the course of Jean-Luc Mélenchon assents debate Le Pen, when she talks about Europe or NATO. See how his words and angry attacks against the elites are similar to the right-wing attacks. "Rebellious France", you say? Is not it strange that whenever people rise against the dictatorship of Jean-Luc Mélenchon supports dictators, not the people. He was for Putin, not bulk. He brings the struggle for democracy in Syria to the conflict over oil and gas, and the last word reserves Bashar al-Assad. The struggle for the independence of the Ukrainians - it's "imperialist conspiracy adventurers-coup."
Levi equally hated and Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon - he needs the Atlantic, antinational France. Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Le Pen, with all the vast differences in their views, are united not only understand the importance of building a dialogue with Russia and the desire to make France a truly independent from the US but also French patriotism.
By the way, Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon were rivals not only in the presidential election year 2012. In the same 2012-m, a month after the presidential elections, they participated in the parliamentary elections - standing for the National Assembly for the same constituency in the department of Pas-de-Calais.
In the first round, Le Pen gained 42 percent, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon - 21, but eventually became a deputy in the Socialist candidate Philippe Kemel. In the first round he was two percent ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, she came in second with Marin - and it has already won her the difference in the 0,2 percent. And now Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Le Pen have a good chance not only to take revenge, but to win in the entire French political nomenclature.