"Financial javelins," which some European and especially Ukrainian "experts" had hoped for, turned out to be rusty and useless against the Russian state debt market. Another set of panic forecasts that the United States, with one blow to the Russian financial sector, will bring down the ruble exchange rate and the price of government bonds, went to the dump of history. But the most offensive for everyone who wants to collapse our economy is that the Trump administration actually recognized that the refusal to escalate financial sanctions is not a gesture of goodwill, but a result of fear of negative consequences for the United States and the inevitable "Russian revenge against American interests. "
Perhaps the main event of last week was the leak in the media of the report of the US Ministry of Finance on the consequences of the possible introduction of sanctions against the Russian market of sovereign debt. Specialists of the US Ministry of Finance in an accessible form presented to the anti-Russian congressmen and senators the state of the Russian economy and financial sector, and they clearly described the reasons why additional financial sanctions against Russia would seriously harm the US financial sector and cause unpredictable negative consequences. In fact, US financial sanctions specialists signed the US sanctions sanctions, which caused a strong positive reaction in the Russian financial sector.
The scandalous report of the US Treasury is divided into several parts, and if the authors were completely honest, then Section II ("Macroeconomic state of Russia") should be accompanied by the subtitle "Obama deceived us all." It's easy to imagine negative emotions mixed with sincere surprise, experienced US senators and congressmen after reading the report, where it is written in black and white that there is no "torn to shreds economy", as Obama said after the introduction of the "Crimean" package of anti-Russian sanctions. But there is a Russian economy that "recovered in 2017 after two years of recession" thanks to the "prudent policy of the Russian authorities."
The authors of the report emphasize that the Russian leadership managed to "reduce inflation and reduce the budget deficit, while maintaining a low level of public debt."
The only bright spot in this rather sad for fans of forecasts about Russia's imminent collapse is the statement of the authors of the report that "Russia's economic prospects remain muffled due to the structural weakness of the Russian economy and the US and EU sanctions pressure." This is a rather offensive statement, if you look at things from the point of view of Washington, which is used to the possibility of destroying any economy of the planet with the help of financial sanctions. In the Russian case, it turned out that "to muffle economic prospects." It should be noted that the stability of the Russian economy to current and future sanctions was also noted by the American rating agency Moody's, which, with all the desire, can not be suspected of sympathizing with Russia or the Russian leadership. In an interview with Reuters, Moody's director Christine Lindow said:
"According to our analysis, the economy and public finances are in good condition and can cope with new sanctions,"
what surprised many Russian business media, accustomed to collecting views and husks on reports of the imminent demise of the Russian economy.
The US Treasury believes that sanctions in the form of a ban on acquiring or owning Russian government bonds by US legal entities will do some damage to the Russian financial system, but the report immediately clarifies that "Russia has large-scale ties in the real and financial sectors of the economy with global business and investors, "which means that the sanctions will affect the global financial system as a whole, and American financial companies will suffer from them. Moreover, in the list of consequences of such sanctions, the final point is "Russian revenge against American interests."
The authors of the sanctions report complain that the competitiveness of US asset management companies will suffer from their introduction, and here it is necessary to explain the reasons why this represents a serious problem for the US. The fact is that the global influence of American financial structures is determined not only and not so much by their own capital, but rather by the fact that US financial institutions manage cyclopean investment portfolios of rich people and companies from around the world.
To illustrate the scale of the phenomenon it is enough to give the following comparison: assets under the management of only one large American financial company BlackRock in July 2017 were 5,68 trillion dollars, and the US federal budget for 2017 year is 4,17 trillion dollars. American financial companies accumulate under their management of capital from around the world - including under the guarantee that they will be invested in the most effective manner. This does not involve making decisions to satisfy the sick ego and the geopolitical wants of senators and congressmen. As rightly pointed out by the US Ministry of Finance, the imposition of sanctions against Russian bonds, which are considered a very attractive asset for international investors, will lead to the fact that American financial companies will lose the competition for customers. In the United States, the light did not come together with the wedge, and it is obvious that clients will take money from the management of American financial structures and transport them to Europe, Asia, or anywhere else, where they invest according to the criterion "where a big profit is expected", and not according to the criterion "what the senator likes McCain. " Given that North American financial companies now manage assets of about 47 trillion dollars, the loss of even a few percent of customers in favor of Europe, Singapore or Hong Kong will be very sensitive to the US in terms of specific billions. In a sense, the strangulation of the geopolitical ambitions of the Washington establishment by the very "free market arm" that Adam Smith, the classic economics theorist, sang in his works.
The authors of the report point out that the negative consequences of the introduction of new anti-Russian financial sanctions for the US financial sector can be stopped if the EU takes similar sanctions, but even then the negative consequences will only be "partially mitigated." Given the fact that the EU actually forced the US to abandon sanctions against the North Stream - 2 with threats of anti-American sanctions, the chances that the EU will show solidarity with the United States in terms of new restrictions directed against the Russian financial market are meager . In this context, it is not surprising that the US Treasury does not place special hopes on this scenario and does not even suggest that the US Senate and Congress should somehow influence European politicians. Moreover: it is logical to assume that European asset management companies will be delighted with the opportunity to "steal" customers and assets from their American competitors. Prior to the publication of the sanctions report, the US agency Bloomberg conducted several interviews with European financiers who manage investment funds in the UK and EU countries and concluded that in the event of US sanctions against the Russian national debt, European investment funds "will send Trump a thank-you postcard for sanctions against Russian bonds. "
Translated into Russian from the American chancellery, the Trump administration's conclusions about financial sanctions are roughly the same: "The new sanctions will be virtually useless and even dangerous, because the Europeans will throw us, the Russians will take revenge, and the US financial institutions will be furious with the pig that we imposing them. "
American Russophobes faced their biggest nightmare: Russia has not collapsed under the blows of sanctions, and the subsequent escalation of sanctions pressure will seriously harm not only Russia, but the US itself.
On the realization that the former omnipotence vanished without a trace, the Washington establishment will need time. Until then, American politicians will continue to cheat and say that they are not afraid of anything, that sanctions will always come and that they are on the planet under any conditions, the most important. The problem is that even the world financial markets do not believe them anymore, and this is a very bad sign for the fading world hegemon.