The main blow will have on the gas and the agrarian sector of the Ukrainian economy, the expert expects Kiev.
Change of foreign policy and, as a consequence, the economic vector of Turkey painful impact on the state of Ukraine, Kiev, experts worry. The main blow will be felt the level of GDP, as well as the agricultural market and gas sector.
Export of Ukrainian goods to Turkey amounted to 6-7% in different years. Key areas were iron and steel products (more than 50%), food industry and the agricultural sector (25%). While the trade balance of Ukraine and Turkey is steadily positive, but tends to decrease.
According to a leading expert information and analytical center in Ukraine ForexClub Andrew Shevchishin, the resumption of Russia-Turkey cooperation can mean the transition of the last on the Russian steel.
Even if we take as a basis the current trend of decline in exports to Turkey 10-13% level, it may reach 18,1% for the year. Thus, at risk - $ 25-40 million already weak exports,
- Gives its data Ukrainian newspaper "Today".
The agricultural sector was the most vulnerable part of the imports - by takes 36% of the total imports from Turkey to Ukraine. At the time of aggravation of Russian-Turkish relations is part of the product, from which Russia has refused, began to enter the Ukrainian market, knocking in passing prices of vegetables and fruits. The resumption of the supply of Turkish products to the Russian market will inevitably lead to a reduction in supply for Ukrainians, which will increase the price of Turkish vegetables and fruit on 3-5%.
However, the most dangerous expert sees the situation in the gas sector. Starting the "Turkish Stream" and "Nord Stream - 2" take over 5% of Ukrainian GDP, equal to 5-6 billion dollars. Shevchishin expects that after 2019, when expires the current gas contract between Ukraine and Russia.
To protect themselves from the economic impact of a possible change of the Turkish vector will be difficult, due to the already heavy promotion of Ukrainian goods to the Middle East and European markets,
- Summed up the Ukrainian expert.
Recall, 9 of August in St. Petersburg for the first time after the resumption of relations with Russia came to the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Among other things, leaders agreed on the resumption of construction of the "Turkish Stream" - a gas pipeline under the Black Sea from Anapa district of Russia to Turkey. With regard to the lifting of the embargo imposed by Russia on Turkish products, then it will be removed in stages until the end of the year 2016, we decided to hand.