Upcoming in April in Turkey's constitutional referendum, designed more to strengthen presidential power more considered today by European leaders as a challenge, almost comparable in importance withBrexitDonald Trump and victory in the presidential elections in the United States. According to available information, the EU leadership, in consultation with the leading European countries, and especially Germany, has already taken a fundamental decision not to recognize the outcome of the Turkish referendum, which in turn will create an opportunity to deny the legitimacy of President Erdogan.
The rejection of Europe Erdogan supported by a number of factors:
1. The need to demonstrate stiffness in migration issues in a pre-election campaigns in France, Germany and other countries, where the ruling class is trying to seize the initiative and to mobilize their support for the right and far-right segments of the domestic political spectrum;
2. The inability to retreat from democratic canons and democratic rhetoric; in relation to Turkey, this means continued support for anti-government forces, first declared itself during the protests 2013 in Istanbul;
3. The desire to prevent the strengthening of cooperation between Russia and Turkey in the economic sphere (pipeline "Turkish Stream", "Akkuyu" NPP), as well as in the military-political (Syria, Iraq);
4. Trying to offer Ankara within the framework of solving the problem of migration (new negotiations on which are inevitable anyway) game on the rate hike; in further bargaining with Erdogan this will disavow previously agreed EU commitments to extend Turkey's visa-free regime and a multibillion-dollar bailout.
Ankara does not believe the current crisis in relations with the European Union or situational arisen spontaneously. "Europe holds some kind of planned political operation, initiated by Germany," - writes Turkish editionHomeland. According to this publication, European leaders are eager to obtain a negative result in the referendum of April 16 application thus blow to Erdogan's administration. However, in this calculation there is an error: the current crisis "is energized and will inevitably fuel the nationalist sentiment that impels to say 'yes' in the vote in Turkey", - concludesHomeland.
To date, the outcome of the Turkish referendum looks uncertain, and here the voice of the Turkish community in the countries - EU member states suddenly can play a crucial role, given that, according to recent polls, the number of supporters and opponents of Turkey's Constitution, the presidential model is approximately the same. Opinion polls also clarify the correlation of forces. Thus, the two leading Turkish sociological services in early March announced opposite findings. According toAKAM,of those voters who have already made their choice, 42,4% intend to support the constitutional reform and 57,6% - to speak out against. ServiceORCIt gives a fundamentally different picture: 57,2% «for» Erdogan project and 42,8% - «against».
Outside Turkey currently reside, according to conservative estimates, more than 5,5 million Turks, while one German vote in the upcoming plebiscite will 1,4 million Turkish voters. During their voices, and a struggle between Berlin and Ankara.
At the same time, the worsening of relations with the EU Turkey can not go beyond a certain line, as there is an objective need to expand into new agreement with Ankara on refugees and migrants, forcing compromises.
In addition, Turkey remains one of the leading EU economic and trade partners, such as the Netherlands, which are the largest investor in Turkey, ahead of US on this indicator.
There is no full solidarity on the "Turkish issue" among the EU member states. The scandal does not subside, but if Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and Denmark acted as a united front against participation of Turkish representatives in their countries in campaigning in support of the Turkish referendum, France and Sweden took a more restrained, even neutral stance, limiting themselves to the introduction of additional security measures at appropriate meetings and rallies. Having well calculated this situation, Ankara intends to use it in its own interests. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey has already called "meaningless" the appeals of the European Union to take a moderate position in the conflict with the Netherlands. It must be understood that Erdogan is ready for confrontation.