Russian military operation in Syria gives a new theme for forecasts and predictions. We start slowly.
The main factor that should be taken into account, this is a very high GDP and rationality, on the whole, the Russian ruling elite. One can argue whether they have general beliefs and high ideals, but Putin clearly never lets up to those ideals to take over common sense and rational considerations.
This yields the following.
Syria is very important for Russia, for several reasons.
The first - and most important - it does not matter all Syria. We actually only its Mediterranean coast.
1. Control of the territory provides the blocking (or control) of alternative pipelines to Europe. Thanks to this, Gazprom currently holds Europe by the throat gas monopoly. And even if in the end the pipeline (from Iran or Qatar) will be built, Russia needs a control valve.
2. Control of the territory provides the military control over a significant part of the Mediterranean and the Middle East. I think a nice map with the center in Latakia superimposed with different radii of destruction of Russian military aircraft have all seen. And given that VWD full garbage going on, and Russia has intended to take part in restoring order (with delicious buns as bonuses), that without Syria nowhere.
It's about Syria.
With LIH another story.
On the one hand, the Islamic state is doing good work for us. It sucks out of the Russian radicals and essential part oprihoduet. If you destroy it, the trash will spread and will return back to us. Better to let it boil.
On the other hand, we have to LIH big and very serious tooth. And he is great and the more serious, because we are talking about very big money.
LIH their illegal trade of oil involved in the maintenance of low prices on the world market. And if that Islamists cut the head all in a row, the Kremlin can look past, the deprivation of Russian money can not go unpunished.
And hence arise relevant to our goal of a military operation in Syria.
1. Move aside the Islamists from the current Coastal for us in Syria.
2. Destroy the oil business LIH.
Both objectives are achieved quite a bombing, the sun and other remote methods, the further cleansing in the land of the Syrian army.
How perfectly formulated Erdogan after his return from Moscow, "Assad, as I they said yesterday, wants to create a kind of state-boutique. It is a region that will stretch from Damascus to Hama, Homs, Latakia and will meet 15% of Syria. The purpose of the Assad - to create in this region of states belonging to him and goes to the Mediterranean, which will be dominated by certain forces supporting it ... "
I think the Turkish president is absolutely correct assessment of the situation, and Russia intends to help Assad in solving this problem.