The forthcoming denomination in Belarus is of a purely technical nature, the central bank says the country. Lukashenko really long time to choose the right moment for the denomination - and yet the Belarusian economy and the country's inhabitants are exposed in this regard to several risks.
On the eve of President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko signed a decree on the denomination of the national currency with the July 1 2016 years. This is the third denomination in the country. The first was held in 1994, the second - in 2000 year. The scale of the third largest: 10 thousand. Rubles will be one ruble, 100 thousand. - Ten rubles.
Initially the third denomination would spend another year in 2009, but then decided to postpone it because of the global financial crisis, a blow to the Belarusian economy. New money has been printed in 2008 year and has since been kept in the National Bank of the country. Belarus took seven years to decide on a new denomination.
Dual circulation of old and new banknotes will go with 1 31 July to December 2016 years. Will be recalculated wages, pensions, scholarships, cash balances in bank accounts, the balance sheets of enterprises and institutions. Sellers in stores will have to put two prices - new and old. With 2017 years old rubles sample 2000 years can be exchanged for new at any bank and the National Bank (from 2020 years - only in the National Bank), and they will be completely invalid from January 1 2022 years.
Conduct denomination better in quiet times, when the rate stable and inflation low. "In conditions of high inflation, confidence in money falls that can cause additional pressure on the exchange rate on the fears that the zeros are cut, that the situation in the future will be even worse. Also quite inconvenient to plan denomination in extremely high uncertainty rate and inflation, "- said the newspaper LOOK financial analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich.
Ads in Belarus denomination will, of course, to the replacement notes. The National Bank of the country promulgated the new sketches of the Belarusian banknotes. In the photo - a five-ruble banknote, which will replace the five thousand
Belarusian authorities believe that the time for this is quite appropriate. The National Bank indicate that "the process of the denomination of a technical nature and does not affect the purchasing power of the Belarusian ruble to the rate of national currency against foreign currencies, as well as on the actual current level of inflation."
This means that Lukashenko is confident in the stability of the economic situation in the country next year. Such expectations are logical, given that the export-oriented Belarusian economy is tied mainly to Russia. But the Russian economy in the past two months, began to show recovery, the rate of the Russian currency has stabilized, the economy has adapted to the low oil prices, the government and economists expect even a small, but the growth of the economy next year. Recovery in Russia for Belarus means one thing - its products will be in demand.
Inflation is an important indicator for the effects of guessing the denomination. Minsk expects its decrease next year.
Director of the analytical department of the "Alpari" Alexander Razuvaev considers that there is no crisis in the Belarusian economy and not, given that the year-end it will show "easy" plus. "This is a very good result against the backdrop of the fall of the Russian economy on 4%», - he said.
Inflation is also quite acceptable. "Economic theory says that inflation is considered to be comfortable in not more than 20%. Belarus enters into it. The September inflation amounted to 11,9% y / y at the end of the year the monetary authorities forecast it to rise to 15-18%. The next year, inflation is expected to reach 12% », - experts expect. Therefore Razuvaev sees no risk of inflation acceleration due to the retraction of the zeros in the Belarusian currency.
Kuptsikevich agree that it is not necessarily that of the denomination followed by a rise in prices. "In Russia, and before that in Ukraine was carried out very successfully denomination in 1990-x. After that, on the contrary, the inflation rate slowed down, "- reminiscent of a financial expert. Prices may rise only a limited range of goods and services, but in general it does not cause a surge in inflation, believes Kuptsikevich.
However, there are examples in the history of denominirovaniya currency. For example, in Europe, when they switched to the euro exchange rate which was higher, there was an increase prices due to rounding them in a big way. Some economists believe that Belarus is going on this path.
"Denomination can provoke a weakening of the national currency. Any monetary reform makes the population nervous, pushing to wait out uncertainty in foreign currency. If demand for the dollar or the euro rises, the exchange rate of the national currency will begin to weaken. In turn, devaluation inevitably entails risks of rising inflationary pressures in the country, that Belarus now clearly does not need, "argues Artem Deev of AMarkets. Moreover, each conversion operation will increase the rate of capital outflow - another factor that threatens the stability of the financial system.
"Inflation will accelerate to determine on 5-10%, because the sellers and suppliers, rewrite the price tags, simply will add this interest to the uncertainty of the market", - said the director of the Investment Banking Department QB Finance Dmitry Kipa.
The Belarusian authorities could postpone the denomination, but they decided otherwise. We can assume that in addition to the stated purpose - to make the domestic currency more convenient for calculations - there are also political. Denomination in developing countries is often used to erase in the minds of citizens of continuity with previous times and prices.
"Belarusian authorities want to reset the memory of the crisis and begin economic growth as if from scratch", - says Dmitry Kipa. "After each denomination counting prices in the country as it begins anew, as if the" disappeared ", inflation, exchange rate changes so that it is more difficult to compare with the course that was before the denomination. Therefore, from the point of view of monetary authorities after the devaluation and during high inflation - the most suitable for the denomination "- explains Kip.