BSF is able to repel the attack in Turkey, but in a collision with NATO forces suffer heavy losses.
Relations with the Republic of Turkey are exacerbated. Turkey together with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with the tacit support of the United States, are openly preparing for an invasion of Syria. The United States and Britain also seem to be able to use their land forces in Syria. In these circumstances, the risk of a military conflict between Russia and Turkey is very high. It is most likely on the scale it can confine itself to an armed conflict, although it can not be ruled out that it escalated into a local war. Hardly more, since there is no one who wants to put Russia before the need for the use of nuclear weapons, since modern Russia without WMD can not lead a large-scale war.
In this conflict, based on the characteristics of the military and geographical conditions, a key role is played by the Russian Black Sea fleet and Turkish Naval Forces opposing him. The main theater of armed confrontation will MTVD Black Sea. Naturally, the question arises: what to expect from our fleet and will be able to decide whether he imposed on his mission to protect the interests of Russia in the Black Sea?
To do this, we estimate the combat strength of the Black Sea Fleet. At the end of 2015 years (according to open sources) in its composition, there are 7 41 submarines and surface ships. Black Sea Fleet Aviation - Aircraft and about 34 40 helicopters for various purposes.
As part of the submarine forces of the Black Sea Fleet submarines are 7 4 from which project 636.3 in the ranks. It is further contemplated entering the Black Sea Fleet until the end of the year 2016 two submarines a similar project.
The basis of the surface forces of the Black Sea Fleet missile cruiser up 1 1164, etc. ( "Moscow»), 1 large anti-submarine ship, etc. 1134B ( "Kerch»), 3 patrol ships:.. Two and one, etc. 1135 01090 (modernized pr.61).. By the end of the year 2016 of the Black Sea Fleet is supposed to enter the three patrol boats, etc.. 11356.
Light BSF forces include 2 small missile hovercraft, etc.. 1239 ( «Sivush»), 2 small missile ship pr. 1234 and 2 forth. 21631, 8 small anti-submarine ships, etc.. 1124 M, 6 sea, 5 basic and raid trawlers , 7 large landing ship (3 forth. 1171 and 4 pr.775) and 6 missile boats (5 forth. 1241.1 and 1241.7 and 1 pr.206MR).
Combat value in the Black Sea Fleet naval aviation have 16 Stormtroopers (by the Navy classification, actually - bombers) Sioux 24M (completed upgrading the Su-30SM), 4 (according to other sources - 7) hydroplane Be-12 ASW aircraft, 1 plane An EW-12PP 4 and reconnaissance aircraft Su-24MR.
The helicopter fleet of the Black Sea Fleet Naval Aviation is represented by thirty shipborne anti-submarine helicopters Ka-27PL and eight helicopters, electronic warfare, based on the Mi-8.
As part of the coastal defense troops of the Black Sea Fleet has a separate coastal missile and artillery brigade composed of one coastal mobile missile long range Regiment ( "Redoubt"), the two coastal mobile missile regiments short range ( "Frontier") and land rolling artillery battalion (130-mm artillery complex "Beach").
Marines of the Black Sea fleet is made up of a separate regiment.
Status of the ship composition of the Black Sea Fleet to the present time can be estimated as good. At the same time as the deterioration of relations with NATO and Turkey in particular, I think, urgent measures will be taken on the commissioning of the maximum possible number of warships.
With this in mind, we can assume that in the case of aggravation of the situation Russia will be able to draw from the basic classes of warships and light strike force (RTOs and RCA) to 100%, and protection from the forces of water area - up to 80% of payroll. Aviation of the Black Sea Fleet can be fit for flight condition until 12-16 Su-24M and Su-30SM, 2-3 hydroplane Be-12, to 2-x-reconnaissance aircraft Su-24MR, 12-18 Ka-27PL and 4-5 electronic warfare helicopters (based on Mi-8).
With the possible outbreak of hostilities, the Black Sea Fleet will interact with 51-Air Defense Corps, which is a common air defense system will cover the base, points-based and naval forces in his area of responsibility. From the composition of this body may be important to cover the Black Sea Fleet, based on their deployment to 2-X fighter aircraft regiments (50-60 machines Su and MiG-27-29) and to 2-x anti-aircraft missile regiments.
To solve the problems of combat with large surface ships of the Black Sea Fleet potential enemy can be maintained long-range aviation forces to the composition of the regiment.
In addition to these forces, of course, to join the group fighting in Syria Russian VCS from the airbase Hmeymim. However, their main task is reflected strikes the Turkish Air Force of the Armed Forces facilities in Syria and Syrian troops friendly.
These forces since the outbreak of hostilities the Black Sea Fleet will be able to create:
- The grouping of forces for the destruction of the enemy's naval forces in the southern part of the Black Sea as part of 2-3 non-nuclear submarines (in attracting long-range aviation may be supported by a resource to one of the regimental departure);
- Grouping of impact forces to combat groups of large surface ships of the enemy, capable of acting in the long-range maritime zone as part of the missile cruiser 1 and 3-4 escorts (may be supported by the forces of long-range aviation resource to 2-x regimental missions);
- Grouping of strike forces for operations in the maritime zone adjacent to our coast of up to 3-x naval strike groups of small missile ships (in 2 ship in each), to 3-x battle groups of missile boats (in 2 boats in each) and up 12-16 attack aircraft and fighter aircraft fleet, as well as missile and coastal artillery units fleet forces;
- Grouping of antisubmarine forces for operations in the maritime zone adjacent to our coast, consisting of up to 2-x naval search-and-percussion groups 3-4 IPC, 2-s non-nuclear submarines, 3-4 antisubmarine aircraft and to 25-30 antisubmarine helicopters.
Promote army seaside flank the Black Sea Fleet will be able to carry the forces of Marines and 6-7 landing ships, capable of landing on unequipped coast to 2-battalions of marines.
What can these forces during the first week of fighting (under favorable conditions)?
In remote from our coastal areas of the Black Sea, they can defeat the two naval strike groups of large surface ships, including a guided missile cruiser of the enemy (for example, type "Ticonderoga"), or 4-5 ship groups (drums, or search-and-percussion) from the class of ships destroyer - frigate.
In areas of the Black Sea, adjacent to our coast:
- To defeat the x 4-ship battle groups consisting of 2-3 surface ships class destroyer - frigate or missile boats;
- To destroy 4-x submarines;
- To carry out the landing of tactical landing will be up to two battalions of marines.
And what in the asset in Turkey?
Turkish Navy 15 account for submarines (including, 10 209 modern-year project), 19 frigates URO (including 5 type "O.Perri" and 6 of the "Knox"), to trawlers and about 25 20 missile boats. These forces are likely to be supported by tactical aircraft. Of the more than 440 strike aircraft for use against ships and objects of the Black Sea Fleet, according to experts, can be employed to 100 or more machines.
Comparing the possibilities of the Black Sea Fleet from the combat composition of the Turkish Navy can be assumed that as a result of military operations of the Turkish Navy can lose up to 40-45% of its surface ships and boats, as well as to 4-X submarines (which make up to 27% of the total ).
At the same time, losses of the Black Sea Fleet can be: for ships of main classes and boats - up to 25-30%, for aviation - up to 35%, for coastal troops - up to 30% and 1-2 submarines. These assessments are made for the case when the actions of our fleet are supported by the forces of the Far and front-line aviation. That is, in these conditions, by the end of the first week of hostilities, the losses of the Turkish Navy can reach a critical level, while the Black Sea Fleet, also bearing serious losses, will largely retain its combat capability. Probably, in the main it will be possible to solve the problem of gaining superiority in the coastal zone of the Black Sea.
In the case of a conflict with the participation of several NATO countries, such as the United States, most likely in the Black Sea will ship grouping of NATO as part of a 2-3 naval battle groups of ships class cruiser URO - destroyer URO, who will be supported by the forces of the Navy carrier-based aircraft US ADR (consisting of up to 3-x carrier strike groups) from the Eastern Mediterranean.
For the attacks on the forces of the Black Sea Fleet can be used in addition to 60-70 US tactical aviation aircraft with the Turkish airfields. In this case, the Black Sea Fleet can only weaken the NATO fleet, having suffered himself such a loss, in which loses its value as a random association.
After that, the enemy will be able to smoothly meet the challenges of landing tactical and even operational landings on the Black Sea coast of Russia and its allies, to strike from the sea on the facilities of the Armed Forces and our country's economy.
Author - Corresponding Member RAMAS, Doctor of Military Sciences