Act a few weeks restrictive measures for exports of Russian grain to Turkey canceled. It was part of a broad package of agreements between the two leaders. Any loss suffered Russian exporters and whether they will be able to make up for the remaining before the end of the season two months?
Turkey responded promptly to the results of the meeting Vladimira Putina with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, where they agreed on the removal of restrictions in mutual trade. The exception was a ban on the import of Turkish tomatoes to Russia, which will remain in force until the end of the investment cycle inherent in Russian greenhouses.
Already since May 4 Ankara lifted restrictions on imports of Russian wheat in the regime of processing of goods within the customs territory. This was stated by Minister of Economy in Istanbul Turkey Nihat Zeybekchi, reports RIA "Novosti" with reference to Bloomberg.
Turkey is the second after the Egyptian buyer of Russian crop production, especially wheat. However, she ruled in March 15 Russia among the countries that have the right to duty-free importation of these products. After that date, wheat and corn to Turkey, Russian exporters could supply only with the duty to 130%, rice - in 45%, sunflower meal - in 13,5%, legumes - in 9,7%, sunflower oil - in 36%. The introduction of fees was tantamount to a ban. As a result, Turkish importers have suspended purchases of Russian wheat, corn and sunflower oils.
The decision of the Turkish authorities to lift restrictions on the supply of Russian grain will strengthen trade relations between Turkey and Russia, commented on the news, Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev. "In March - April, exports of agricultural products grown in Turkey, and we look forward to further positive dynamics", - he added.
What losses suffered by Russia of Turkish restrictions, which lasted six weeks, and can make up for this season, which ends in June 30?
Not long ago, experts of the Gaidar Institute and RANHiGS felt that "Tomato War" with Turkey will cost Russia in 1,3-1,7 billion dollars. Because for winter tomatoes Russia "has sacrificed the export of grain, oil, waste oil and fat and the sugar industry" exactly the same amount. However, grain experts initially denied such a huge loss. And now - when so quickly managed to solve the problem with the export of cereals to Turkey - and even more so.
"It's incorrect assessment and unprofessional approach", - says the newspaper VIEW CEO of analyst firm "ProZerno" Vladimir Petrychenko. To prove this, he compares the volume of trade with Turkey in the past and this season. In the past, Russia has sold selhozsezone wheat Turkey, corn, sunflower oil and other commodities on 1,356 billion dollars. In the current season, which has not yet ended, Russia has already supplied these products to 900 million. A few days later the Turks contracting purchases of Russian grain will be restored, and a part of the loss of domestic exporters will be able to compensate.
Overall this season grain exports will be less than in the past, but the reason is not only that the Turks will buy less Russian products. There are other objective reasons: a good harvest in the whole of the planet and lower world grain prices, and the strengthening of the ruble.
If Turkey's restrictions in force until the end of the selhozsezona, Russia could nedopostavit 200-300 thousand. Tons, counting Petrychenko. Now we can say that the loss of the Russian exporters would be much less - not more than 100 thousand tons of grain and leguminous crops, of which no more than 50 thousand oil and meal... However, in reality losses can be even lower, does not exclude Petrychenko. "In June, we can make up for a lot," - he believes.
The president of the Russian Grain Union (RGU) Arkady Zlochevsky different opinion. He believes that if restrictions continue until the end of the season in June 30 2017 years, Russia would nedopostavila 600 thousand tons of grain:. 400-500 thousand tons of wheat plus 100 thousand tons of corn... To fill the entire volume of short supply, most likely, will not have time, but it is likely it will be possible to put 300 thousand. Tons, said Zlochevskiy, reports the RNS.
In any case, the Turkish factor will not have a significant impact on the final Russian grain exports this season. Export in any case will be more modest, and the volume of Russian wheat supplies will give way first US location. The reasons generally at low prices, the strengthening of the ruble and the reduction in demand against the background of generally good harvests in the world. And the United States on their own export markets, which do not coincide with the Russian, not bad dumping.
Another important consequence of the removal of restrictions Turkey is a rise in prices for Russian grain. Because they began to fall after the March 15. For example, the cost of Russian sunflower oil (the Black Sea) in comparison with competing Ukrainian oil consumption, as a rule, 5-10 dollars, but after March 15 difference was already 25-30 dollars. So, on Friday, the Russian sunflower oil worth 700 dollars and Ukrainian - 725-735 dollars, said the general director of "ProZerno".
must now return to normal pricing relationship with their rivals, believes Petrychenko. And, most likely, prices will drop just our Ukrainian competitors, as they raised them using the Turkish restrictions for Russia.