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20.04.2017 - 19: 12

Southern Front in Syria, Jordan and the United States put Russia in front of a choice

Actions of Jordan and the United States in Syria, Russia put before a choice response. We are talking about a possible beginning of the US-British-Jordanian operation in the southern part of the country, on the preparations for which have reported an Arabic newspaper "Al-Hayat», Global Research site and other sources. According to the latter, is now on the border of Syria and Jordan, there is a concentration of the US-British forces.

The purpose of actions

The operation should be the elimination of the Syrian border area jihadist "Islamic State" (IG - a terrorist organization banned in Russia - ed.). In the 2016, on the Jordanian border clashes more frequent, and the jihadists attacked at the Jordan, attacked the department of special services in Bacau, Vahdat and Ma'an.

In December 2016, they attacked the tourist center of El-Kerak. It was a painful blow from tourism revenues support the fragile economy of the country.

Reported on the preparations for the invasion was preceded by the appearance of 5 April, the newspaper The Washington Post interview with the Jordanian kingAbdullah IIafter his meeting with the President of the United StatesDonald Trump. According to him, if the terrorists "will move from Syria to the south, the challenge we are ready to confront the United States and Britain."

Another aim of the operation is to counter the Iranian units, which, according to an interview with Abdullah II The Washington Post, are in 70 kilometers from the Kingdom of the border and "trying to establish a geographical link between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon /" Hezbollah "with the intention to gain control of this space ".

There is another reason for such preparations: states in the region are concerned, and strengthen the actions of Russian aircraft at their borders.

Jordan and Syria

Already in 2012, Jordan began to get involved in the events in Syria, when out on its territory refugees streamed, which leaked and the jihadists, considered an enemy and Assad, and monarchical regimes. In 2013, Jordan has become one of the bridgeheads to fight in Syria, where to deliver aid to the opposition. Since that time, we began to appear about the possibility of invasion stuffing out on Syrian territory, helped by the annual celebration in Jordan scientists in NATO countries and nations in the region "Dancing Lion".

Moreover, according to the American sources previously been transferred to Jordan, the US-British forces have already "spend a long time operation on the Syrian-Jordanian border." Thus, in 2013, there were reports about the destruction in the south of Syria, Assad's air defense systems by the British special forces SAS.

In the 2014, Jordan openly intervened, launching air strikes on the positions of the IG on Syrian territory. In 2015 year the press reported about the impending combined attack on Syria, Turkey and Jordan to create a buffer zone there.

action Settings

It is possible that during the operation the parties will not be limited by short-term raids across the border, and create on Syrian territory military bases (sources report the existence of such a secret facility in the past).
However, the proposal on the fight against the jihadists and "preventing gain Iran's influence can be a pretext for further expansion is still conditional US zone of responsibility in Syria. The real purpose of "hitting the south" can be a further advance in the north and sweep the area of ​​Deir al-Zor in the guise of offensive US and UK opposition trained in Jordan.

Jordanian strategy

Opening of the "Southern Front" can complicate the situation for Moscow, because this would lead to a weakening of the Assad regime.
Russia is not beneficial to worsen relations with the US because of Syria, but this does not negate the issue of appropriate countermeasures with her hand. In this regard, King Abdullah II in an interview offered to strengthen the management of dialogue with Moscow to convey to her that this will strengthen cooperation in the war against the IG.

He also intends to use in its dialogue with Russia (it is aimed at driving a wedge between Moscow and Tehran) the presence of "the Iranian threat": "I raised this issue before Putin. According to Abdullah II, he received assurances from Putin that "coming to our borders, the other players will not be allowed." According to Jordanian sources, "Russia sees Iran also supported militants in Syria destabilizing force that threatens the territorial integrity of the country."

Meanwhile, more recently, Jordan's attitude to the events was more flexible. So, Abdallah to the last dramatic "reversal" of the US to develop cooperation with Russia and the Assad regime through the security services, the head of which has repeatedly met in Moscow only 2017 year. This was due to the desire to Amman reformatted via Moscow contacts with a force after passing opposition Aleppo Asad and pro-Iranian formations tends to come out to the Jordan border.

In addition, the Jordanian security services have played an important role in addressing "switch" in the communication between the representatives of the intelligence community of the West, Assad and Russia, which, despite the recent aggravation preserved.
Accordingly, Jordan continues to play an important role in brokering unofficial talks. And, apparently, the military preparations on its territory were not a surprise for Moscow.

As for the reasons for such "throwing" the King of the United States and Russia - the two most important players in Syria - (28 January, he traveled to Moscow, and already 6 February flew to Washington, and then repeated the visit to last at the beginning of April), it demonstrates his growing concern, because, despite the alleged assurances of Moscow, the promotion of Iranians towards Jordan continued and it took him an additional security guarantees.

Prospects

While the concentration in Britain of the British-American troops can be considered within the framework of the proposal openly thrown by Abdullah II to agree with Russia at the expense of the interests of the third powers. In his interview, he points out: "From the Russian point of view, they play a three-dimensional chess game. For them Crimea is important, Syria, Ukraine, Libya. It is necessary to deal with the Russians on all these issues simultaneously. " The king himself sees this as "trading horses" with the expectation that "the most important thing for Russians is the Crimea," for which he expects to receive "greater flexibility in Syria." Otherwise, the Russians will fight in Syria and Libya, the next problem will arise in Moldova. "

Abdullah II of Russia indicates that "Trump intervention in Syria creates both challenges and opportunities ... Russian Interests permanent military presence should be ensured in the Syria" Syria useful ": the area between Damascus, Latakia, Aleppo, Homs and Hama."

At the same time he states the possibility to save Assad: "Moscow and Washington can find ways to entice Assad from Iran to stay in the game, leave alone the rebels on the common basis of the fight against the jihadists."

In other words, Abdullah II has offered the United States and Iran to make Ukraine a bargaining chip, aided by the presence of "Putin's serious problems with terrorism. IG foreign fighters moving in the direction of Moscow, St. Petersburg. Therefore, Putin must find a political solution in Syria as soon as possible. "

Consequences and plan operations

As for the possible start of operations in southern Syria, the question arises as to why the concentration of forces is being opened. It is possible that she can wear a red character in order to force Assad to spray force and make them unable to effectively carry out the tasks in Idlib and Hama.

A willingness to open the "southern front" could pursue the goal of "demonstration" intended to force Russia to further believe in the seriousness of US intentions after the recent strike "tomahawks" and make concessions.
For southern Asada same rejection "buffer" will be painful for his self-esteem, and further accentuate its illusiveness dreams relative recovery "single Syria", but in general it will not be catastrophic. On the contrary, being devoid of the need to disperse its troops to maintain control over the territory along the Jordan border, he was later able to concentrate them in other directions.

In general, the further involvement in the Syrian events Jordan can lead to a more explicit division of Syria, "Russian" and "US" sphere of influence, which may not be the place to Iranian interests. This is what is now pushing Moscow having friction in relations with Tehran, which they not only interact, but also compete in Syria.

However, such actions constitute a serious affair. While it is doubtful that Russia will withdraw from the position of explicit "surrender" of Iran, for which she invariably receive complaints of being "traitors". Especially Trump that he also does not give precise guarantees regarding the preservation of Assad and Moscow's interests in Syria.

A source: EADaily

Author: Sergey Balmasov, expert of the Institute of the Middle East and INF

Tags: Syria, Middle East war, politics, international relations, the United States, Russia, the Middle East, Analyst, IG