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How important will be the unification of the two Koreas

How important will be the unification of the two Koreas

April 28 2018 LJ cover – Какое значение будет иметь объединение двух Корей
Tags: DPRK, South Korea, Politics, International relations, Analytics, USA

The prospect of concluding a peace treaty between the two Koreas and the disappearance of the Korean theme from the list of major world problems will mean the onset of a new world order. And this will directly affect not only Pyongyang itself and Seoul, Beijing and Washington - but also Moscow. How and in what is the interests of Russia?

The divided Korea is often called the last relic of the Cold War (although the division itself, as in the case of Germany, arose after World War II). But if the Germanic unity came 27 years ago, then only dream about the Korean. 35-year-old Kim Jong-un, who crossed the border with the South, may well live to create a unified state. And his appearance at the center of the most important region of the XXI century will change a lot in the whole world.

The last time 38-th parallel North Korean leader stepped in 1950 year. But then Kim Il Sung, who, like his two grandsons, resembles his grandson, the present leader of the DPRK, was not heading for a meeting with the South Korean leader, but to the capital of the South, Seoul, occupied by the northerners. The North Korean army occupied a large part of the territory of the South in a few weeks - and it seemed that the victory and unification of the divided in 1945 year were close.

But the landing of American troops changed the course of the war. And then the Chinese army had to intervene to prevent the defeat of the northerners. In 1953, a truce was fixed - and since then "neither war nor peace." At the same time, for 74 past years, the Korean theme periodically became the "number one" on the world stage. As it was at the end of the 60, when the North Koreans seized an American warship that invaded their territorial waters, or in the 90, when the United States began to press the DPRK, which was in a difficult situation. Or in the last year, when Donald Trump with serious airs reasoned about the possibility of eliminating the DPRK.

Yes, before the war the matter never came up, but thunder and lightning rushed from both sides. And the second side in reality was not South Korea, but the USA - who, with their military presence in the South, as well as the non-recognition of the existence of the DPRK, are, and are, the main culprit and source of the existence of the "Korean problem". If now, as a result of the meeting between Kim Jong-un and Mun Zhe In, a real movement will begin in the direction of not only relieving tension, but also a gradual rapprochement and, in the long term, the unification of the two states, what will this bring to Russia and the world?

What is the reason for the Korean division?

In fact, it was never natural - like a Vietnamese like it. And in it, as well as in the Vietnamese, the main culprit was the US, it was their presence that prevented the unification of the country. Yes, this unification would have happened by military means, but after all, the Americans did not come to Korea because of the love of Koreans, but because of fear of the Chinese and Russians.

The United States, perceiving everything that was happening in the world through the prism of restraining the USSR, could not reconcile with the loss of its satellite in the fifties. Indeed, shortly before that, they lost China, the most important partner and ally - after Mao threw Chiang Kai-shek out of the country. And in Korea, the Americans decided to recoup, having received a war with the Chinese army and Soviet aviation. That war ended in a draw, costing the lives of millions of Koreans and Chinese, tens of thousands of dead Americans and their allies. But what was reinforcing the division of Korea in the following years?

It's not a confrontation between the USSR and the US, because the DPRK was not our puppet. Pyongyang did not depend on anyone at all. From the end of the 50, Kim Il Sung became a completely independent ruler, to which neither Moscow nor Beijing had influence.

Did he think about a new attack on the South? Of course, not - not only because the payment for the first war was the complete destruction of the entire North, but also because in the South there were now American troops. And China and the USSR would not support a military campaign. North Korea closed itself and created a unique, in no way similar to the Juche society, that is, self-reliance. A radical variant of War Communism - with strict discipline, "we are all one family" and "we do not envy anyone in the world."

This regime did not threaten anyone, but continued to be at war with the United States. The US itself declared it to be the descent of hell and its enemy. And one thing when they talked about the USSR, which possessed nuclear weapons and the world's strongest army, and quite another when it came to a small country that had once been practically wiped off the face of the earth by the power of the American army. The American threat to the DPRK has not disappeared anywhere, and the Kim lived with the feeling of constant alertness all these decades.

Of course, while the USSR was alive, they had some guarantees. Although the DPRK was not a member of the Warsaw Treaty Organization, it is clear that in case of an attack on the northerners, Moscow would not stand aside. But the USSR disappeared, and one China could no longer guarantee the safety of the northerners. They did not want to lose absolute sovereignty and become dependent on China. That is, in 90-s Pyongyang did not want to follow the path of South Korea - to give part of its sovereignty to a great power for patronage.

Kim kept absolute independence and even managed to agree with the US on the suspension of the nuclear program. But the Americans did not fulfill their conditions, and then Pyongyang resumed the program, eventually obtaining a bomb and rocket carriers. As a result, North Korea today is not only part of the super elite club of space and nuclear powers, but is also really one of the few countries that have absolute sovereignty. Now she can determine her own future.

Especially since the US is clearly losing the opportunity to play the Korean card further. Trump and so squeezed the maximum PR from the "Korean theme." He knocked out concessions from China, put half the world to his ears with his allusions to the possibility of a military operation against Pyongyang. It is no longer sensible to drive further, especially considering that in reality the United States did not consider the option of an attack on the DPRK. Even if you become like those people who are not very clever, who sincerely consider Trump a hawk, adventurer and warmonger of war, it was impossible to come up with any serious argument in favor of an American strike against the DPRK. A blow to the DPRK would lead to the death of thousands of US military in South Korea. And for what they would perish?

Now Trump will also try to earn political points on the "Korean world". He had already started by writing in his "Twitter" that "the KOREA WAR IS END! The United States and its GREAT people should be very proud of what is happening now in Korea! ", And in the coming month, as he prepares his meeting with Kim, he will continue to tell everyone what successes he has achieved on the Korean front.

Trump will sell the "denuclearization of the DPRK" - that is, the allegedly promised Kim promise to abandon nuclear weapons. Although in reality, Kim has in mind very specific things: the DPRK will give up new tests of nuclear weapons and missiles to achieve peace on the peninsula. There is no question of any renunciation of nuclear missile forces in the current situation. But the very process of bargaining and negotiations with Kim can be served as Trump's success - see, this Kim threatened peace, and now he talks about peace and tranquility. The fact that the "threatening world of Kim" existed only in the fantasies of American propaganda will not have any significance for the American public.

But for Koreans themselves, the dream of unification will become increasingly intrusive. Both the North and the South will increasingly understand what an important place in the world could be occupied by the united Korea. United at the beginning - that is, the next 10-20 years - not in a single state, but with common interests. Koreans are real nationalists and patriots. Being at the junction of the interests of the four great powers - China, the United States, Russia and Japan - they in no way want to be nobody's puppets. And if the North and South agree on common projects, they will not have problems finding allies in these matters.

China and Russia are interested in the gradual integration of the two Koreas - both for economic and geopolitical reasons. The political unification of Korea is a matter of several decades, but the economic convergence of two such different systems is in fact a matter of several years. Not just joint ventures, but large transport and energy projects using the geographic location of Korea.

The Trans-Korean gas pipeline, a single railroad that passes into the Russian Transsib and connects Korea with Europe, is only the most notable steps towards Korean unity.

80-million people, hardworking, proud, respecting their traditions and above all appreciating their civilization is a good neighbor and partner for Russia in that multicolored world that we are building.

Peter Akopov
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