"North Stream - 2" Russia launched a scenario of the US and EU divorce and the destruction of Euro-Atlantic solidarity.
The conflict between the US and Germany because of the "Nord Stream - 2" highlighted the flags that Germany will not allow the United States to do, no matter how it was tied up by NATO and the Washington consensus. To Germany in this matter are ready to join both France and Italy, and traditionally the union Austria. The conflict develops according to the classical scheme: the phases change one another, and the level of resource costs increases with time.
Conflictologists, working with the conflict, make up his intellectual map, which graphically reflects all phases and levels. It makes sense to try to do something similar with regard to the conflict between Germany and the United States over the Nord Stream-2. After this, it becomes clear where the conflict is going and what will be its next stage.
So, the subject of the conflict are two separate ones united in one issue: the dispute about the territory and the dispute about the price. The US seeks to penetrate into Europe with its more expensive gas, Europe seeks not to give up the territory and not pay the price. European aspirations to protect their territory are due to the unacceptable price of the resource that the United States seeks to impose on Europe. Surrender on the territory and the price for Europe means forever to lose the remaining subjectivity and plunge into a crisis, followed by the disintegration of European structures.
Gas locomotive "GALEA" in the European port
The United States will replenish its energy deficit at the expense of the released energy of the disintegration of Europe, after which the crisis will resume, and this will require other ultimatums to other countries. What will arise on the site of the former Europe, Europe will no longer be. But the US, too, can not refuse to suck the energy of Europe - being by nature a vampire, they risk dying from a shortage of vital energy.
Thus, we have an existential conflict, that is, connected with the very possibility of existence of both sides. Its first phase was the period of Obama's time, when Germany and Russia built the "Nord Stream - 1". Since this was destroying the entire US strategy towards Europe, where Eastern Europe was to become a lever of pressure on Western Europe, the US entered with the Europe into the pre-conflict phase.
Its characteristic feature is the accumulation of stress. Its stages are taunts, irony, open dissatisfaction and criticism. All these stages have already taken place in the past and have ended. Through the EU structures, the US dragged the third energy pack with all its might, limiting Germany's ability to use the pipeline at full capacity and thereby gaining economic and political benefits.
After the phase of accumulation of stress, additional resources are involved in the conflict. The incident leads to the next level, the second phase - the confrontation. Such an incident was the conflict around Ukraine as the main transit of gas to Europe. Started skirmishes and clashes. This is all phases of the second phase. Remember the intercepted phone call of Nuland about Europe during the Maidan - this in Berlin and Paris was not forgotten.
The American establishment demanded the use of a Ukrainian gas pipe by Europe to curb the economic growth and independence of Germany. Germany, realizing that it is threatening, is beginning to build a second line of the gas pipeline to bypass the third energy package. America literally went into hysterics about this project, demanding that it cease. Germany was obstinate. She pressed on the fact that she fulfills all the conditions of the United States and has the right to an economic project. After the crisis has intensified in the United States, they decide to improve their affairs at the expense of Europe. Obama began to demand the conclusion of a transatlantic trade union that kills the remnants of European sovereignty, already without a flash and symbolic.
Then came the next, the third stage of the second phase of the conflict - a scandal. The US ultimatum demands the rejection of the "Nord Stream - 2". Germany took a deaf defense. Everything was ready for a qualitative jump in the conflict with the release to a new level. We need another detonator - an incident. This incident was the demand of the new US President Trump for Europe to pay for membership in NATO 2% and even 4% of GDP and open markets for liquefied gas. In addition to this Trump began to impose duties on European exports to the United States. This was the last straw.
The Bundeswehr in NATO
The incident brought the conflict to a new level. The third phase of the conflict began - an escalation. The parties moved to the competition to build up the power shoulder. Europe imposed retaliatory sanctions. The US threatened to sanction European campaigns that are trading with Iran and participating in the construction of the Nord Stream - 2. Europe responded with counter threats. The process of creating a European military alliance, an alternative to NATO, has begun. Germany announced that the US is no longer their assistant.
That is, the stages of accusations and actions against have begun. As soon as the resources of this stage are exhausted, the stages of partisan war and sabotage will begin. Europe will begin separate negotiations with opponents of the United States and will become closer to Russia, China and Iran.
Information from the US came: "There is a consensus in the US government that the Nord Stream - 2" enhances Europe's dependence at a time when Russia's behavior is becoming increasingly dangerous and unpredictable, "a US National Security Council spokesman said. And the USA raised the rates even more: 19 July in the US Congress, desperate to get from Europe obedience through persuasion, began to act through NATO. They are preparing to pass a law obliging the NATO countries to purchase American liquefied natural gas.
The motive is supposedly ensuring the security of Europe from excessive dependence on Russia on gas. It is difficult to imagine how the American law will oblige to submit to Europe, but we understand that for Europe the extraterritoriality of American laws has long been recognized fact. Through the structure of NATO this can and act. Although this is a nonsense and an unprecedented case - treat economic transactions through the prism of military security and conduct them through the military department.
A joint conference of Angels Merkel and Donald Trump at the White House. Washington. 2017
This step, taken by Congress, is just the prologue in the guerrilla warfare phase, as the actions against are over and ultimatums have begun. Europe will certainly strengthen resistance, as the US actions for it are dangerous and unpredictable. Guerrilla warfare in the form of raids on enemy bases - charges and sanctions - will quickly pass in sabotage - individual attacks will be replaced by a flow on increasing. All this will happen in the fall, during the elections to the Congress.
Trump pushed up the stakes to the skies and cut off all the ways of retreat. The fact is that in the third phase of the conflict, negotiations are no longer leading, it is already the phase of the war. Negotiations were possible before the scandals. After the escalation and the beginning of the confrontation there is no negotiation, there is a war. What we are now observing. And the more time passes, the more the war goes on and on.
What will Europe do in response? We have already said that it will begin partisan actions - work with lobbyists in the United States and individual sanctions attacks mixed with formidable statements. The pressure will only strengthen Europe's opposition: the matter is that Europe does not only receive a good price for gas from Russia, but it is in a stronger negotiating position than with deliveries from the United States.
Scheme of gas pipelines "Nord Stream" and "Nord Stream - 2"
Become the main gas hub in Europe and dictate the terms of supply to others or become a colonial market for the sale of foreign gas - is there a difference? With Russia, Europe can be capricious, Russia needs Europe. With the US, whims do not pass. Here you just have to capitulate and obey. As we have already noted, the relationship between Europe and the United States has gone so far that you can not do it by yourself - you will have to give all the blood.
And since Europe will not be able to do this, the stages of partisan actions and sabotage, quickly slipping, will go to the fourth phase with its successive stages: depersonalization of the enemy, his dehumanization, the desire for maximum damage to the enemy, the war of annihilation. All or nothing. These are the following stages, to which the United States is rapidly approaching and pushing towards this Europe.
Someone will think that this can not be in the relations between Europe and the United States. And could someone have guessed four years ago that it would be possible what is happening now? We will certainly witness a stage when Europe will start calling the US an evil empire, and the United States in response will call Europe a robber, a traitor and a territory deserving all sorts of punishment for deception of an ally.
Construction of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Pipelayer Solitaire
What should Russia do at this time? First of all, do not interfere and do not reconcile both sides. The more the US presses on Europe, the stronger Europe moves to the East. The states risk not only to get Europe to Russia, but also to drive it to China. Until that time, Trump will not be declared impeachment in the United States. But there is absolutely nowhere to go to Trump, and he will continue to increase pressure on Europe. Of course, this will destroy all democratic institutions in Europe. Of course, this will strengthen Russia. And even if Europe gives way to part of the US gas market, it will by no means remove the conflict, but will only strengthen it and transfer it to a deeper level. The raped never love their rapists.
After all, the conflict is not exhausted with the defeat of the enemy. He can be forced to submit, but he will not agree with this and will not cease to strive for revenge. And he once stabs you in the back, seizing the moment. The conflict is lifted only when one of the parties changes its initial opinion about the subject of the conflict. It is impossible to present this either to Europe or to the United States. And this means that the gap between them will only deepen. Congress can only wish the US: more ultimatums, good and different. Another year of such a policy, and in Europe instead of English will learn the Russian language. And we will not be able to keep them from this.